CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Every model has a different interpretation WRT totals so its pretty much a nowcast situation, so good luck to all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Already approaching over 4" by the Westside. You will get a foot out of this easy then. Should be the best event of the year for Northtowns. NAM WINS! I hate that model for large scale synoptic events, but it usually fairs well for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 NW wind LES has to be some of the hardest stuff to predict. Anyone from Orleans to Oswego has a chance to hit max totals. The NAM 4KM high res shows a 3 lake connection. Rates could be high. I'm thinking Orleans-Monroe county special coming, we will see what the afternoon AFD says.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks nasty downtown! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wondering if that band will hold on or just get shoved on shore... Can't really tell... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Doesn't look like its goign anywhere anytime soon, lol, or at least until the AF moves through which wont be till this evening sometime, so enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 No southward drift evident on radar, winds are still SW to the northwest of Toronto which usually results in lag time of 3-5 hours to begin the shift here. If this band stays locked in on Buffalo Metro until 6 p.m we could see some high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Puking Snow in Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There's also a SW moving through as well which should drop 1-2" area wide with embedded heavier snows/LE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 There's also a SW moving through as well which should drop 1-2" area wide with embedded heavier snows/LE! Yeah for sure, later tonight everyone will get the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Heavy stuff up here in the NE corner of Buffalo. I'd say we are at four or five inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lake snow warning for Northern Erie coming soon. It will reach criteria by 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That is a very robust band, with another building off of long point that will give the north towns one more quick shot. It would appear the core of that band has 3"/hr rates. The airport is picking up signicant ground on Syracuse today in regards to seasonal totals! I I'm hoping that front just crawls along but a subtle shift is showing up over the pennisula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That is a very robust band, with another building off of long point that will give the north towns one more quick shot. It would appear the core of that band has 3"/hr rates. The airport is picking up signicant ground on Syracuse today in regards to seasonal totals! I I'm hoping that front just crawls along but a subtle shift is showing up over the pennisula. We had close to 5"/hr rates earlier now it's down to like 3-4"/hr. 6 inches so far since 12:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nws taking sweet time today with updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pound town here heavy snow not fluff either snowball making stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow growth region is ideal, synoptic moisture plentiful, Super Steep lapse rates, SW flow that appears steady state, all point to a super band!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like Nam has shifted south now. All of south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Initial band looks to have pushed ashore but another taking shape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Initial band looks to have pushed ashore but another taking shape! Best LES advisory ever, imagine if this was on a weekday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Warnings should definitely have been posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Do you guys remember when I quoted from the Buffalo Blizzard Book a couple of months back about how the winter of 1899-1900, a strong El Nino year, went on to be Buffalo's snowiest in 14 years, despite the latest first measurable snowfall on December 3, 1899? You guys broke that record this year and now look at all the snow you're getting! Similar patterns yield similar results! Enjoy the snow! I have to say I'm jealous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Warning for rochester. 7 to 14. Bet those get bumped up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Warning for rochester. 7 to 14. Bet those get bumped up later. Off Lake Ontario... Expect a band of lake enhanced snow to intensity late this afternoon near Kingston Ontario. This band of snow will then merge with the Arctic front and sweep east across the Eastern Lake Ontario region this evening with a 1-3 hour period of heavy snow. This initial burst of heavy snow will move east into the Adirondacks with the Arctic frontal passage. More pure lake effect snow will develop in the wake of the Arctic front as winds become westerly over Lake Ontario and instability deepens further. This band of snow will initially focus across the Tug Hill plateau...then move south across Oswego County late tonight with snow spreading into northern Cayuga and northeast Wayne counties toward daybreak. The combination of the lake enhanced Arctic front and lake effect snow overnight will produce a general 3-5 inches across much of the Eastern Lake Ontario region...with 6-10 inches across the Tug Hill where lake effect snow initially develops. Late tonight southern Oswego...northern Cayuga...and northeast Wayne counties get into the heavier snow with 2-4 inches possible by daybreak. Into the day Monday...upstream connections to Lake Huron and Superior will increase the intensity/snowfall rates of the Lake Ontario lake effect band. With the upstream connections and west-northwest flow... expect the lake effect band will hug the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario from about Orleans County across Monroe County before moving inland across Wayne/northern Cayuga and far Southwest Oswego County. Snowfall amounts will be highest across the far north/northwest portions of Monroe County...Wayne County...northern Cayuga and far Southwest Oswego counties... where 5 to 9 inches of snow are likely through the course of the day. Lower amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across far northwest Orleans County. With increasing confidence in the lake effect snow hugging the South Shore of Lake Ontario Monday into Monday night (further discussed below)... have adjusted headlines accordingly. Have upgraded Monroe County to a lake effect snow warning... and posted a lake effect Snow Advisory for Orleans County. && Short term /Monday night through Thursday night/... significant lake snows will continue east-southeast of both lakes Monday night with a cold and moist background environment persisting in the presence of still-significant lake-induced instability...as lake induced equilibrium levels will remain at or above 10 kft for at least the first half of the night...before falling below this level overnight. As for their location...a general westerly to west-northwesterly flow will continue to direct the most significant Lake Erie lake snows across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua ridge...while the west-northwesterly flow across Lake Ontario should steer the most significant lake snows across the Monroe-northern Cayuga County corridor...with some of this also affecting portions of Orleans County at times. In both of these regions...additional accumulations of 5 to 9 inches will be expected within the most persistent lake snows...while around the periphery of these two main areas lower but still advisory-worthy amounts will be likely across western Allegany and northern Orleans counties...where lake effect snow advisories have been issued. Compounding all this will be westerly surface winds of 15 to 30 miles per hour...which will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Warning for rochester. 7 to 14. Bet those get bumped up later. Even the 18z 4km NAM is picking up on the southern trend, i told you Orleans-Monroe county special incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I know posted that a few posts ago. Thinking someone gets close to 18 to 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I know posted that a few posts ago. Thinking someone gets close to 18 to 20 Maybe not that high but will see if the trend holds, this is LES after all... they had me down for 2-4" and I'm counting close to 8-9" outside. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 btw it looks like a band is trying to develop on a WSW flow near Dunkirk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wrf 18 z did it again. Most of monroe county burried. Gives .50. To. 1.25 for county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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