tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lake erie about to go boom. I have seen this type of set up before south shore does well with huron band and georgian bay merger over lake ontario. Remember about 10 years ago city got over a foot 2 feet p enfield on east. Not forecasting this as south shore lake snow is the hardest to predict of all the great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Man isn't that something, the WRF out of BTV just loves Lockport it gives them 0.8" today and another bullseye of 1.70" tomorrow. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I could see ontario county getting a advisory if the band sets up good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Erie's band is now affecting Toronto Metro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I see some dropped warnings in the near future, let's see who gets the shaft first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Some dropped maybe some added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice band north of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 North side of the city looks like its getting raped under the Arctic Front coupled with a WSW wind, look out as it passes through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12 z run of wrf consistent with 1 to 2 feet in monroe county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 CONGRATS TIM123, POLARBEAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 One can hope. Its lake effect. We all know how that can go. But that model has been insistent on this since yesterday. Even if it 10 miles to far south. Still get hammered in monroe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd say close to 5"/hr rates, 1.8" since 12:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 CONGRATS TIM123, POLARBEAR! I like it, but I'm always a bit leary of being in the bullseye. I kind of like being right on the edge up til game time to allow for any more shifts...That said, bring it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 CONGRATS TIM123, POLARBEAR! If that model were taken seriously, wouldn't there be watches out for Niagara & Orleans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 CONGRATS TIM123, POLARBEAR! Yeah, no QPF for Fulton, Oswego, and Northern Syracuse the places supposed to get the hardest hit? that has to be the worst model available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That model, whatever it is, makes both NWS offices look like their completely wrong Yeah, no QPF for Fulton, Oswego, and Northern Syracuse the places supposed to get the hardest hit? that has to be the worst model available. Glad you said it, lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Winds are going to remain SW for a decent period of time this afternoon, at least another 3-5 hours or so before it drifts south of Metro. If rates are really 5" per hour, it could add up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Advisories for south of syracuse. Good omen for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Why would the NWS in KBUF use a meso model out of KBTV??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Why would the NWS in KBUF use a meso model out of KBTV??? NW wind LES has to be some of the hardest stuff to predict. Anyone from Orleans to Oswego has a chance to hit max totals. The NAM 4KM high res shows a 3 lake connection. Rates could be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 The NMM has max QPF around Fulton 1-1.5" QPF The WRF-ARW has max totals west/southwest of Fulton. Around 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Its a regional model. Most of north east covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Buf may need to increase totals. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTTHIS EVENING...* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER... INCLUDING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...NORTHERN ERIE... AND GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL COME IN A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Winds are SW across Huron still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Why would the NWS in KBUF use a meso model out of KBTV??? Why not? You do realize that the WRF use to be the old MM5 right? Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Definitely has room to move a bit South but not completely past Syracuse I dont think, but who really knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wondering if that band will hold on or just get shoved on shore... Can't really tell... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Buf may need to increase totals. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER... INCLUDING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...NORTHERN ERIE... AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL COME IN A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. Already approaching over 4" by the Westside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 They have their own in house model, it doesn't make sense thats why, cause if they even considered it the accumulation maps would look a lot different. MM5, lol, is that even still in existence?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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