Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Roc actually gets its best lake snow with a wnw wind

This is right and wrong! A WNW wind can clip the NW portion of Wayne County but most of the time, A N/NNE wind is best with an upstream connection otherwise the fetch off the Lake with a N/NNE isn't sufficient enough to produce its own blockbuster snows.  It will snow, but just scattered showers.  

 

I'm not sure where he's getting downsloping from??  There's a Lake to your North bro, you can get downslopped with a S/SSE wind but not a N/NE wind.  You just may be confused is all.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

They must grow some pretty good stuff around here..Just seems a little overboard but they are the experts not me..

post-14040-1452638194_thumb.png

you must be new to the Fulton area cause those totals are quite common, lol??

[wolfie09]

I know they are lol ..The Avg in my signature was taking from the last 13 years of spotter reports, so i know how much it can snow around here..I just didn't think we would get that much with this particular event..I ended up with 7"..Early next week has a better shot with a long duration wnw-nw wind..

[BuffaloWeather]

Went to look at a house on North Boston/Hamburg border and it just got sold a few days ago. Sad day man it was perfect.

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks really good for LES Sunday into Monday before winds shift for Metro area and southern suburbs.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THEMIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OFLAKE ERIE NEAR BUFFALO AND BATAVIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL CHANGE TO WEST ORNORTHWEST...DIRECTING MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THEWESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS CHANGES SUNDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS AIRMASS HAS ARCTIC ORIGINS...AND WILL BRING A
FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR TO THE LOWER LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...
AND WILL ALSO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 10-15K FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A
TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...ALLOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEAR BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN. SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...CARRYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD AND ACTIVE...AT LEAST FROM A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STANDPOINT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY THEN HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ASCENT. EXPECT PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY
AND A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO ADD UP TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. FAVORED AREAS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA
EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.
OFF LAKE ERIE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE UPSLOPE DRIVEN ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH INTENSITY DEPENDING ON WHETHER AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION DEVELOPS TO LAKE HURON.

[BuffaloWeather]

Hours 72:

 

 

Hours 96:

 

 

Hour 120:

 

[ayuud11]

Man just look at those LES parameters for early next week on the 0z GFS, it's just ridiculous wow.. :snowing:

[rochesterdave]

This is right and wrong! A WNW wind can clip the NW portion of Wayne County but most of the time, A N/NNE wind is best with an upstream connection otherwise the fetch off the Lake with a N/NNE isn't sufficient enough to produce its own blockbuster snows. It will snow, but just scattered showers.

I'm not sure where he's getting downsloping from?? There's a Lake to your North bro, you can get downslopped with a S/SSE wind but not a N/NE wind. You just may be confused is all.

[rochesterdave]

We do get a down slope dry out effect from clippers that swing in on a SW flow. The genny valley, due to its lower elevation, combined with the loss of any lake enhancement dries out with as the front passes. Perfect example was Tuesday, that squall line up and died over Monroe county. But thanks for echoing my sentiments on a more northerly flow. Years of anticipation followed by disappointment has learned me to watch for synoptic help and Inversion. And if the winds are too strong the cold air just doesn't have enough residence over the lake. Plus, as shown with our last event, meso models often project too far south by about 20 miles. I would think the models would correct with failed verifications?

[ayuud11]

Man just look at those LES parameters for early next week on the 0z GFS, it's just ridiculous wow.. :snowing:

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON SUNDAY WHEN A

CLOSE 500 MB LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE

DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALLOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO CLIMB

TO 10-15K FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW IN

ADVANCE OF THIS WHICH WILL INTENSIFY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THIS WILL

FOCUS SNOWS ON THE BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE DISTURBANCE TO PASS

TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND

PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL

REGIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES...BUT IT IS

TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL FALL INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING

CATEGORY. BANDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY TRANSIENT WHICH WILL LIMIT

ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS...BUT DYNAMICS SUPPORT FAIRLY INTENSE

SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES. NAM/GFS QPF GUIDANCE DOES PICK UP ON THIS

AND PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...BUT WAS SHARPENED TO FOCUS ON

LIKELY BAND PLACEMENT.

 

[rochesterdave]

STRONG INSTABILITY

AND A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO ADD UP TO

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. FAVORED AREAS

WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA

EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

[tim123]

Thinking monroe county is in for a rude surprise. 1 to 2 feet for the week. Most on lake shore.

[champy]

STRONG INSTABILITY

AND A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO ADD UP TO

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. FAVORED AREAS

WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA

EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

That'd be nice, it's all about the moisture though when over the short fetch, especially for the NE Finger Lakes. Interesting "snow hole" we tend to have here.

[wolfie09]

Latest From kbuf

IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OF

COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH

850 MB TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD AVERAGING BETWEEN -12C AND

-14C...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH WITH A 3-5 KFT CAP IN PLACE AND

A RELATIVELY SHALLOW DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION FOUND BELOW THIS

LEVEL...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BECOME OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THIS

POINT IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE ON THE ORDER OF

AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND 2-4

INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... WITH THE

LAKE ONTARIO ACTIVITY BENEFITING FROM A LITTLE BETTER FETCH ACROSS

THAT LAKE. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT WITH

THE COLDER AIRMASS ALLOWING NIGHTTIME LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE

UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

SUNDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND AN ATTENDANT FRESH

BATCH OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL

GREAT LAKES...AND WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEAK

CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR

REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE

MODEST LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD TO AREAS

NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN...WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY

GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED DUE TO BOTH A LITTLE BUMP IN

LAKE EQLS AND THE INCREASING FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE

ACTIVE AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...WHILE

SWINGING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. INCREASING

SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE AND LAKE EQLS RISING TO BETWEEN

10-15 KFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE EFFECT

OFF BOTH LAKES EXHIBITING A MARKED UPTICK IN BOTH ORGANIZATION AND

INTENSITY...WITH THIS HAPPENING FIRST TO THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY

DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO ACTIVITY SUNDAY

EVENING. INITIALLY THE MORE ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS SHOULD BE FOUND

NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEFORE

QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AGAIN TO AREAS EAST AND THEN EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY

BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT SHOULD BE

THE INCREASINGLY BETTER ORGANIZED STATE OF THE LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES

WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THIS

STATED...PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ALSO STILL EXISTS WITH

RESPECT TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CLIPPER...EXACTLY HOW MUCH

WINDS WILL BACK OUT AHEAD OF IT...AND HOW MUCH SHEAR IT WILL

INTRODUCE INTO THE COLUMN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ALL OF

WHICH ARE FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON BAND

PLACEMENT... INTENSITY...AND RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY GIVEN

LOCATION...WHICH IN TURN WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE CAN EXPECT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE

CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES AT THIS

TIME...AND WILL INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR

NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS IN THE HWO.

[BuffaloWeather]

I plan on going to holiday valley on Sunday and Cross country skiing at the ridge on Monday. Looks like fresh powder for both days, what good is snow if you don't play in it! Can't wait!

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

The Burlington WRF is interesting. Never shows a SW flow setup on the 0z output. Instead puts a moderate band on a WSW flow almost locked in place most of the daylight hours on Sunday. Looks like a good target area with Hamburg on the south side and the Metro on the north side. QPF output put a bullseye over Orchard Park with 0.90. Not sure what we're looking at for snow ratios but that would be a good foot for everyone between the metro and Hamburg and maybe a foot plus around OP WS Elma...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

The Burlington WRF is interesting. Never shows a SW flow setup on the 0z output. Instead puts a moderate band on a WSW flow almost locked in place most of the daylight hours on Sunday. Looks like a good target area with Hamburg on the south side and the Metro on the north side. QPF output put a bullseye over Orchard Park with 0.90. Not sure what we're looking at for snow ratios but that would be a good foot for everyone between the metro and Hamburg and maybe a foot plus around OP WS Elma...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

You have a link to that? I lost mine to that one.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

You have a link to that? I lost mine to that one.

http://www.weather.gov/btv/wrf_models

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

http://www.weather.gov/btv/wrf_models

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Thanks!

 

[wolfie09]

Watch out

 

 

 

.LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 OR MORE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH
LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

[wolfie09]

Watch issued

 

 

 

.LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 OR MORE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH
LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

[wolfie09]

Kbuf

 

 

 

THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PERIOD IS WITH A LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT THAT WILL AGAIN LIKELY BRING FEET OF SNOW EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENT WILL BE TRIGGERED
BY A BROAD AND DEEP -2SD 500MB TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED CUT OFF LOW THAT
IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE OF ARCTIC ORIGINS
WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -20C CROSSING THE STILL WIDE OPEN LAKES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES EARLY SUNDAY WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH MONDAY ENHANCED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND APPROACH OF
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. WEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTENSIFYING SNOW
BANDS NORTH TO ABOUT BUFFALO OFF LAKE ERIE AND JUST SOUTH OF
WATERTOWN OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW FOR ALL THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO
NORTHWEST WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC-SOURCED AIR ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL STEER SNOW BANDS TO SOUTHEAST OFF BOTH LAKES AS THEY
INCREASE TO NEAR PEAK INTENSITY THROUGH MONDAY AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TOP OUT NEAR 15KFT OVER BOTH LAKES. 00Z NAM
BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR SPRINGVILLE AND FULTON SHOW STRONG
CROSSHAIR SIGNATURES OF HIGH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTERSECTING
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ON MONDAY AS THE SNOW BANDS REACH PEAK
INTENSITY. LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES BUT WILL WEAKEN SOME AND SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGIN TO LOWER LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOUT
5KFT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS OUTLINED IN THE LOWER
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AS CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT HAS INCREASED TO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH RANGE. THE
COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SUPPORT FROM
CIPS ANALOGS HAS LEAD TO THIS INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. THREE OF THE
TOP FIVE CIPS ANALOGS FOR SUNDAY EVENING MATCH PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENTS. SNOW TOTALS FOR THESE TOP ANALOGS FROM JAN 2-5
1995...DEC 21-24 1999 AND JAN 6-9 2004 MEASURED SEVERAL FEET EAST OF
BOTH LAKES. THE BETTER PREFORMING LAKE BAND WILL AGAIN BE OFF LAKE
ONTARIO AS A MULTI-LAKE UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION IS SHOWN IN THE
MODELS. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN BOTH BANDS WILL ALSO LIKELY REACH 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[tim123]

Monroe and Orleans county should be in watch

[cny rider]

Steady moderate wet snow falling at 32F here at 1650 feet.

A pleasant surprise.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Looks like I picked a good time to be in Fulton...will be staying into Monday, so hopefully will catch a good part of the event there. Leaving might be interesting...

 

 00Z NAM BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR SPRINGVILLE AND FULTON SHOW STRONG

CROSSHAIR SIGNATURES OF HIGH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTERSECTING
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ON MONDAY AS THE SNOW BANDS REACH PEAK
INTENSITY. 
 

[rochesterdave]

Monroe and Orleans county should be in watch

like last time, not a good set-up for south shore. Maybe a little better, but not great.

[tim123]

Thinking they do long advisory. But high totals. Long duration

[phoenixny]

After seeing morning models, I am thinking totals will surpass the last event. Flow goes NW on Tuesday but moisture increases which should keep it going with multibands. Someone near or just north of Syracuse is going to get 2 ft + by Tuesday night. Gonna be fun!!!

[DeltaT13]

Monroe and Orleans county should be in watch

Just getting back into the states after a week in the Caribbean. Missed the whole last event but it seemed mediocre, who did the best?

I'm trying to come up to speed for this next event. From a quick perusal of the latest run it looks like a non event for Monroe county. Arguable the only county in the whole buffalo CWA that will stay below advisory amounts. Such is life with lake effect.

[ayuud11]

The Burlington WRF is interesting. Never shows a SW flow setup on the 0z output. Instead puts a moderate band on a WSW flow almost locked in place most of the daylight hours on Sunday. Looks like a good target area with Hamburg on the south side and the Metro on the north side. QPF output put a bullseye over Orchard Park with 0.90. Not sure what we're looking at for snow ratios but that would be a good foot for everyone between the metro and Hamburg and maybe a foot plus around OP WS Elma...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The 12z run of that model now lifts the bullseye right thru the heart of the city for tomorrow.