wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 They must grow some pretty good stuff around here..Just seems a little overboard but they are the experts not me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That was one legit squall line earlier in the afternoon, check out the KBUF metar during that time! KBUF 121726Z 21024G34KT 2SM -TSSN FEW015 BKN026CB OVC033 M01/M06 A2948 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/1726 TSB26 OCNL LTGICCG VC SW TS VC SW MOV E P0000 T10061056KBUF 121728Z 21026G34KT 1/4SM R23/2600VP6000FT +TSSN BKN013 BKN026CB OVC033 M01/M06 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/1726 TSB26 OCNL LTGICCG VC SW TS VC SW MOV E P0000 T10111056KBUF 121734Z COR 25036G56KT 1/8SM R23/0600VP6000FT +TSSN BLSN OVC008CB M02/M04 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 25056/1734 TWR VIS 1/4 TSB26 OCNL LTGICCG NE-OHD-SW TS NE-OHD-SW MOV E P0000 T10221044KBUF 121742Z 24018G30KT 1/8SM R23/0700V3000FT +TSSN BLSN OVC004CB M02/M04 A2950 RMK AO2 TSB26 PK WND 25056/1734 OCNL LTGICCG NE-OHD-SW TS NE-OHD-SW MOV E P0000 T10221039...ERIE COUNTY...TONAWANDA 3.0 1235 PM 1/12 3 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Channel 9 weather in the Syracuse area is saying 10-18 but yet in thier time cast map it shows the lake band way down into the finger lakes just about all over night and into tomorrow. But yet they have the heaviest snow located in the same spot the weather service does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 They must grow some pretty good stuff around here..Just seems a little overboard but they are the experts not me.. post-14040-1452638194_thumb.pn They had me down for 8-12" today and we got maybe 2 inches out of it haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If that band didn't get sheared apart so bad by those strong west winds the metro forecast probably would have verified. It never had a chance to getting pumping. Aside from that the forecast call was pretty spot on... Still curious why they haven't canceled the Warning for northern Erie yet... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 They had me down for 8-12" today and we got maybe 2 inches out of it haha! Yep, I was in the 4-8 inch range and maybe got an inch with the squall line. As we know, forecasting these micro scale events - lake effect, enhancement - can only be so accurate for a given area, even right up to the event. Southern Ontario and the Niagara Falls area cashed in today on the enhancement, rather than northern half of metro and northern Erie County. We're good at getting the idea of what's going to happen, but accumulations for any given area are always a toss-up. Nature of the beast - part of what makes the weather around here so fascinating to track. Meanwhile...despite the moving lake effect the last few days, BUF has done little to put a dent in their huge snow deficit. Hopefully this changes starting later tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Starting to like monroe county to central wayne county tonight. Hrr pound area starting in a hour or 2. Keeps band in that area till end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would be lucky to see a flake if the hrr was actually correct..Doesn't the Hrrr go by current radar? Thought I heard that somewhere.. Needless to say I'll stick with the rgem ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Starting to like monroe county to central wayne county tonight. Hrr pound area starting in a hour or 2. Keeps band in that area till end of run Holy crap at the upstream radar off L. Huron and Georgian Bay! Those suckers are just puking snow. Someone east/southeast of L. Ontario should have some fun tonight. Hopefully everywhere from Roch to Fulton gets in on the action for a few/several hours. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I think the meso models for areas E. of Ontario are too far south....and I think the NWS and Channell 9 are a bit too far south....I see this being more of a Central/Southern Oswego Co. event....if that connection with Geo. Bay comes to fruition, the meso models, in the past have frequently been too far south. I think Fulton to Central Square....maybe Parish on the northern fringe....jackpot over the next 20 hours with totals near 2' or so....I bet N. Onondaga Co. (including my home in Liverpool) JUST miss out on decent totals (maybe get 3 or 4 inches)..... I'm just basing this on my experience from following these types of Geo Bay connections....if the connection isn't made...the band will be able to settle a few miles south into N. Onondaga Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Snow started here about 10 min ago, coming down at a nice clip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Snow started here about 10 min ago, coming down at a nice clip.. lake ontario, too me, is harder to pin down band placement than erie. Lack of funneling at the end of the lake and upstream connections from both Georgian Bay and Huron play havoc with placement, especially in the 280 to 300 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 lake ontario, too me, is harder to pin down band placement than erie. Lack of funneling at the end of the lake and upstream connections from both Georgian Bay and Huron play havoc with placement, especially in the 280 to 300 degree range. Absolutely! When the UL's get involved, the meso models off the E/SE end of Ontario can bust pretty bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Think western lake ontario is about to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Think western lake ontario is about to explode.we can only hope! Like others have already said, Lake Ontario LES is soooo difficult to fcst. High refs don't usually nail it down and heck, half the lake is in a radar hole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I know they really need a radar in roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I know they really need a radar in roc http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKRThis is a link to a radar just nw of Toronto given to me by the king a couple of years ago. It gives some lead time on possible feeder bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If the Huron Band and the Geo Bay band merge to a point just NE of Toronto and they BOTH feed a growing band over the NW part of L. Ontario, then it's really game on (4-6"/hr. stuff at times) over Oswego Co. tomorrow early morning.... Those above mentioned bands were parallel and separated further from one another earlier....now, it would appear that the Huron band has taken on a bit more of a W-E orientation, which actually will feed the Geo Bay band, just as it is getting to L. Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 If the Huron Band and the Geo Bay band merge to a point just NE of Toronto and they BOTH feed a growing band over the NW part of L. Ontario, then it's really game on (4-6"/hr. stuff at times) over Oswego Co. tomorrow early morning.... Those above mentioned bands were parallel and separated further from one another earlier....now, it would appear that the Huron band has taken on a bit more of a W-E orientation, which actually will feed the Geo Bay band, just as it is getting to L. Ontario. Very strong band in Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm going to pretend that i didn't see the newest 0z WRF run and go to sleep, it shifts that LES band for tomorrow faster than an eye blink through the metro area and takes it all the way out N.Falls and keeps it there the most before it quickly swings it down to the southtowns.. INCOMING BUST ALERT! :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm going to pretend that i didn't see the newest 0z WRF run and go to sleep, it shifts that LES band for tomorrow faster than an eye blink through the metro area and takes it all the way out N.Falls and keeps it there the most before it quickly swings it down to the southtowns.. INCOMING BUST ALERT! :lmao: Good, they handled todays "event" miserably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Both the ARW and NMM WRF have an inch of QPF for Metro and just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's still early but not loving the look of the radar..Heavy stuff looks just south.. My girl said about an inch or so at the house but here at work about 1.5 miles north, a thick coating.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks to be a Syracuse deal right now. I'm surprised at the wnw-ese orientation. I was convinced it would be more NW. We are looking at 275-280 instead of the 290 needed for Monroe county. King, you called it! It's in the details! Monroe does not do well with pure lake effect. Peeps in Wayne county doing well right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Give it time. That band will move south in a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Starting to drop south now. Looks like a 6 to 8 hour window of good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Tim123, you and I will have to agree to disagree, Rochester very rarely does well on a wnw flow. Especially in a pure les event. I got my hopes up on one or two meso models but it ain't panning out. Our events mostly happen on a retrograde low that goes from Boston to the Adirondacks, or a low that goes along 80 in PA. In my memory, some of the only pure les for the south shore have north winds with inversion involved. We've had a few wnw les events along the 104 that were just pure les. And I'm talking about 6"+ events. The difference was that we had an arctic air mass squarely in place, as apposed to a front or clipper. The winds, miss aligned at that, are just too fast for this event. Hopefully, this rant will jinx me and give Monroe county a six inch snowfall once the winds shift in a couple hours. Glad to have another Rochester peep watching this site! I'm in West Irondequoit, where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Walworth. Hope we get some powder soon. Kinda starved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Starved? Yeah man, we are at like 75 year deficit mark! And I thought '82 was bad. Lol. Looking at the radar, which I obsess over, it looks like it is ticking sw. Maybe we can get a few inches come the am commute. Someone in Syracuse suburbs gets a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Radar looks much better now lol snow has picked up big time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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