wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Binghamton ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 18 INCHES IS POSSIBLEFROM SYRACUSE TO CASENOVIA EASTWARD TO ROME AND UTICA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The double structure seen in one of BufWeather's posts above is absolutely textbook. You can see the moisture added from the Georgian Bay/Huron combining with the initial development on the west end of Ontario merging together. Easy 3-4 feet when it stays in place like it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Round 3 is looking more and more impressive by the run for areas E-NE of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Read my post again! I said it would lift North in response to the potent SW dropping in from the upper Great Lakes and pass right through. I dont care what the forecast says from KBUF! Pattern recognition prevails over models every time and I'm not arguing, just stating my opinion, and if I'm wrong I can take as I'm a big boy! Been watching these bands for 15 yrs now and its not a good set-up for KBUF, Southtowns a different story as is always the case! While it may not be the best "setup" for KBUF, it certainly looks to drop at least 6" on the city within the next two hours or so. take a look at the latest radar loops.. this band is taking it's sweet time as it lifts northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Rochester may get atleast advisory snow tomorrow eve into Wednesday according to some me some models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Round 3 is looking more and more impressive by the run for areas E-NE of the lakes. Here is the 18z BTV 4km WRF for that period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Was that it? At work on the north side of Orchard Park... Maybe 2 inches here... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Rochester may get atleast advisory snow tomorrow eve into Wednesday according to some me some models It looks good for the Greater Rochester area from tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning, they'll prolly issue some advisories out that way later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Was that it? At work on the north side of Orchard Park... Maybe 2 inches here... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's it till the next round tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I could see warnings if trends continue. Each run is looking better for rochester. Nice upstream connections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I could see warnings if trends continue. Each run is looking better for rochester. Nice upstream connections. Yes i like late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning for those upstream connections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Check this live webcam out in the next 15 mins or so, it's going to get blasted with that LES band! http://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-new-york-elmwood-avenue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I could see warnings if trends continue. Each run is looking better for rochester. Nice upstream connections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Sorry for double posts. Monroe county is usually very tricky to forecast lake snow. I am actually in western wayne county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's actually picking up some steam as it heads toward the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Told my girlfriend in Cheektowaga to be on the lookout. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's actually picking up some steam as it heads toward the city. Really nice event so far, have to say RGEM(mesoscale) nailed QPF maximums last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nice! I definitely see some aggregates in those photos. I'd love to know if you or anyone else observed graupel or rimed ice crystals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nice! I definitely see some aggregates in those photos. I'd love to know if you or anyone else observed graupel or rimed ice crystals. No graupel but I might have seen some ice crystals on the western end of the band near the Angola/Brant area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 My house is 2 blocks away from that camera and it's coming down pretty good here. I'd say 2"/hr rate and I'm at the northern most tip of the band! Downtown to airport is currently taking the brunt. http://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-new-york-elmwood-avenue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Picked up 7.5" since last night. Just missed the real heavy stuff by a few miles at my location. The next event is starting to look incredible for Central Erie into the Buffalo Southtowns. The next event will target areas 5-10 miles north of the event today with the heaviest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Great Pic Ayuud!! So how much did you, or shall I say the airport end up receiving as it heads to your North? Is that a good representation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 A dusting with wet roads? According to that Cam, if so not much fell at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 A dusting with wet roads? According to that Cam, if so not much fell at all? The intensity appears to be picking up in the webcam. The pavement is becoming slushy and should soon be snow covered. Based on the footprints in the snow about 1 to 2 inches has fallen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Been snowing moderately here for the last couple hours. Big old parachute flakes - really nice out! I noticed the wind really calmed down as the band was getting close. Was worried about it falling apart before it pushed through, but it managed to hang together pretty well. Definitely not penetrating as far inland though. Looking at radar I might have another hour tops in this, so accumulation should top out at 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Picked up 7.5" since last night. Just missed the real heavy stuff by a few miles at my location. The next event is starting to look incredible for Central Erie into the Buffalo Southtowns. The next event will target areas 5-10 miles north of the event today with the heaviest totals.Getting so confused with event 2 and 3. Are you talking about Tuesday snowfall for central Erie? At work so can't really do much web surfing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Getting so confused with event 2 and 3. Are you talking about Tuesday snowfall for central Erie? At work so can't really do much web surfing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Next "event" is the synoptic/enhancement snow tomorrow late morning through afternoon off the northeast end of the lakes (South Buffalo to Tonowanda should do best with this off Erie). BUF has a good discussion on this - copied below. Then the next lake effect event kicks in after that - hammer time in southern Erie County. ON TUESDAY...NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WNY...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AROUND OR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED SNOW RATES OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...AND ADVISORIES FOR THE COUNTIES FURTHER EAST FOR THIS ENHANCEMENT. NORMALLY A CLIPPER WOULD ONLY DROP A FEW INCHES AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT WITH LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SOARING TO ABOVE 15000FT WITH A WELL ALIGNED WSW FLOW...THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW...LAKE ENHANCEMENT...FRONTAL PASSAGE...TOGETHER WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH CREATING BLOWING SNOW AND SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...FEEL IT IS WARRANTED TO GO ABOVE MODEL QPF. DAYTIME AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH 4-8 INCHES...MUCH OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 4 km name looks good for rochester metro. Hope to get advisory. Whats everyone else think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 There you go Wolfie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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