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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Just got home travel bans were going up and didn't want to get stuck at the in laws house. ^_^ posting pics and vids soon.What a difference a few miles make. 6" in water valley, 18" in Eden town, 20"+ South eden hills.

Dude Boston had like 6-8" and that was 5 hours ago, with snowfall rates of 3"+ and a nearly stationary band they must be approaching 2ft+ :arrowhead:

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********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...
EVANS CENTER 18.0 100 PM 1/11 EMERGENCY MNGR
ANGOLA 15.0 100 PM 1/11 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
NORTH COLLINS 10.5 1230 PM 1/11 PUBLIC

...LEWIS COUNTY...
LOWVILLE 21.0 100 PM 1/11 AMATEUR RADIO
GLENFIELD 19.0 245 PM 1/11 TRAINED SPOTTER
6 S LOWVILLE 11.0 1230 PM 1/11 TRAINED SPOTTER

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Hot off the press!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY319 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016NYZ010-120430-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.160112T1500Z-160113T0300Z//O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160112T0600Z/NORTHERN ERIE-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO319 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM ESTTUESDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM ESTTUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY.* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM  TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE  TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS. 4 TO 7 INCHES  TUESDAY...AND UP TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING PRODUCING TOTALS OF  6 TO 9 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS IN THE SECOND EVENT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING  SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN  HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND  GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWIN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILLBE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES INROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INBUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAGBUFWX&&$$
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Based on obs and radar, nws numbers seem very underdone. Wouldn't rule out 6' somewhere on Tug.

Check out the latest AFD!

 

 

STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH LAKES THIS

AFTERNOON.

LAKE ERIE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS REMAINED STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE

DAY...WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES

IN THE HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS...WHILE SUNNY SKIES CURRENTLY GRACE

MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. UPSTREAM DATA SHOWS A NOTABLE

NORTHWARD TREND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN...SO THE QUIET

WEATHER OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL

CHANGE FOR THE WORSE...PROBABLY AFTER DARK. FROM A COMMUTING

STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS WITHIN METRO BUFFALO SHOULD FAIR OKAY

EXCEPT FOR THOSE TRAVELLING TO AND PAST THE SOUTHTOWNS...WHERE

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE. ONCE THE BAND STARTS MOVING

INTO THE METRO BUFFALO AREA...EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM WHILE FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THEREFORE...WILL LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS WITH TIME AS THE BAND MOVES

NORTHWARD...ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT ALTOGETHER BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

LAKE ONTARIO...A BAND HERE IS ALSO REMAINED STATIONARY WITH UPSTREAM

CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH LAKE HURON AND THE GEORGIAN BAY...LEADING TO

INITIAL TOTALS PROBABLY IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET. THIS BAND TOO IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND

ALSO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NY...EXPECT ONLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS

THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM

MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT FAR

WESTERN NY JUST BEFORE OR AROUND DAYBREAK.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW MOVES

EASTWARD ACROSS WNY...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO

TAKE SHAPE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AROUND OR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON.

THIS...COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD

ALLOW FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED SNOW RATES

OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW

WARNING FOR NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...AND ADVISORIES FOR

THE COUNTIES FURTHER EAST FOR THIS ENHANCEMENT. NORMALLY A CLIPPER

WOULD ONLY DROP A FEW INCHES AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT WITH

LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SOARING TO ABOVE 15000FT WITH A WELL ALIGNED

WSW FLOW...THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW...LAKE

ENHANCEMENT...FRONTAL PASSAGE...TOGETHER WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH

CREATING BLOWING SNOW AND SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...FEEL IT IS

WARRANTED TO GO ABOVE MODEL QPF. DAYTIME AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH 4-8

INCHES...MUCH OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH

LESSER AMOUNTS OVER ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE MINIMAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT

UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONGOING SYNOPTIC

SNOW...WILL START THE WARNING FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN

THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HIGHEST TOWARD SOUTHERN

METRO BUFFALO HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3-6

INCHES...TAILING OFF SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...MOST AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY

EAST SHOULD SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT

ENHANCEMENT MAY START TO TAKE SHAPE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE

FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WILL THEREFORE START THE

NEXT LAKE EFFECT WARNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS

COUNTIES.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME INCREASINGLY

FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN A GENERAL

280-290 FLOW REGIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -18C WILL

CERTAINLY GENERATE EXTREME OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEARING 18K FEET. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PEGGED WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY

YIELD SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOURS FOR AN EXTENDED

PERIOD OF TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS

SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS

THE FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY

BRING SOME DECENT SNOWFALL VERY CLOSE TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN

AREAS DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH THE FLOW BACKS.

TEMPERATUREWISE...MID WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S

TO LOW 30S EACH DAY AND DIPPING INTO THE TEENS EACH NIGHT.

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We had so many downers on this event a few days ago, yet the analogs said we all get hammered. Feels good man! I;m telling ya the GGEM catches on to LES trends the fastest of all models, followed by Euro and than GFS in longer range. Obviously mesocale models and high res do the best close up to the event.

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We had so many downers on this event a few days ago, yet the analogs said we all get hammered. Feels good man! I;m telling ya the GGEM catches on to LES trends the fastest of all models, followed by Euro and than GFS in longer range. Obviously mesocale models and high res do the best close up to the event.

Man i got to give it to the canadian and the euro with this one, goofus was all over the place.

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NYZ010-012-019-085-112045-

SOUTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-WYOMING-NORTHERN ERIE-

224 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN

CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN WYOMING...AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...

AT 217 PM EST...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING SNOWFALL

RATES OF 3 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR DUNKIRK TO

SILVER CREEK AND ANGOLA...EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS

AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL

REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD

THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

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