BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 I am very confident someone sees 40" off Ontario with that Georgian Bay connection by Tuesday afternoon. Looks utterly perfect. Even the 4km NAM spits about over 2" of QPF with this, and I'd be ratios are going to be a bit better than 15:1. Only wish I could be there to see it happen! Yeah man, sorry the timing didn't work for you to be there, I'm sure you'll get plenty more events as winter actually arrives tomorrow and going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Wait and see time now... Finally some excitement as we really get into the meso time range... Look at that upstream connection for the Ontario band. Looks like a pounding Monday morning. Erie band not so impressive... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Wait and see time now... Finally some excitement as we really get into the meso time range... Look at that upstream connection for the Ontario band. Looks like a pounding Monday morning. Erie band not so impressive... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk RGEM looks nice around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 That WRF doesn't get to the point where the band begins its northward drift, just misses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Watching a possible ice jam on caz creek. Looks like it was backing up earlier today in West Seneca around noon and has since broken up and shifted through the park into South Buffalo. Hopefully the rain overnight into the morning isn't to heavy to cause any issues. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 1:10 Ratio. You do the math for the tug. Some places will top 7 feet? Redfield jackpot zone. 3 lake connection, snowfall rates 5"+ an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 The Euro now shows a strong band of LES on Thurs for Metro Buffalo. I just got more intrigued about the 2nd event as the GGEM shows the same thing. The band stays there for 24 hours or so, possibly longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Here are the 3 hour frames of the Euro from Underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Then it tosses in a synoptic storm at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Euro is also a global model so QPF and intensity with Lake effect is not as good as synoptic as you can see in those LES frames in comparison to the synoptic storm at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 I'm not allowed to post the Euro QPF but let's just say Central Erie county into the Southtowns get feet of snow and the Tug gets absolutely slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 If that Low can dig in a little bit further south then metro will be in the game come Thurs, at the current track it favors the S.towns but as we know that can change in the coming model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Wait and see time now... Finally some excitement as we really get into the meso time range... Look at that upstream connection for the Ontario band. Looks like a pounding Monday morning. Erie band not so impressive... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's showing up nicely on all the mesoscale models, i wonder if BUF will have to increase the snowfall amounts for those areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Ayuud you have a link to look at them maps you posted above? I had it saved on my laptop but laptop died so lost it haha. Tug is gonna get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Ayuud you have a link to look at them maps you posted above? I had it saved on my laptop but laptop died so lost it haha. Tug is gonna get hammered. http://www.weather.gov/btv/wrf_models http://www.weather.gov/buf/mm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 There is a nice 4 hour window on the 12z NAM 4Km buftkit data where winds align from 245-250 and lake equilibrium's rising to 15K on Tuesday around 18z-0z time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 wunderground occasionally wrongly adds 2 3 hour windows of qpf into one. That's what it's doing on thursday, richard, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 wunderground occasionally wrongly adds 2 3 hour windows of qpf into one. That's what it's doing on thursday, richard, btw. Yeah I know, I hate when it does that. Still loads of QPF though. Updated Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 NAM is similar to Euro with the backing of the winds Thurs. This frame also nails you wolfie! We all get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Top 15 for event 1, some good analogs in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Thanks Ayuud. Thursday looks good for me also if that map above is right. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 For us non-lake effect areas of Upstate NY, it looks to be more of the same. Heavy rain today, followed by cold and dry through the week. Maybe some light snow from the clipper and any rotting lake effect bands that make their way across the Mohawk Valley. It will be a shock to the system if winter does return to these parts before Spring! Looking forward to seeing reports from you guys near the Tug or south of Buffalo this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 For us non-lake effect areas of Upstate NY, it looks to be more of the same. Heavy rain today, followed by cold and dry through the week. Maybe some light snow from the clipper and any rotting lake effect bands that make their way across the Mohawk Valley. It will be a shock to the system if winter does return to these parts before Spring! Looking forward to seeing reports from you guys near the Tug or south of Buffalo this week. Euro did have a nice Miller B snyoptic system next weekend, we are definitely due for one soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 1:10 ratios I believe with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Really pumped for this event off Ontario. Gonna try and chase this one later this week into this weekend (I know most of it will be over by then) but I'm having trouble finding may spots on the Tug to stay, particularly around Redfield. When I chased last month I stayed in Pulaski which was nice because they have amenities within walking distance of the hotel, however I wasn't in the bullseye being at a lower elevation , with the Tug 30 miles east seeing triple the amount I saw, but for this one Id love to be in the thick of the event near Redfield. Anyone know of any spots I could stay this weekend? Hotel, cabin, private house? Thanks in advance for any responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't need feet, i just need snow Ggem looking good for wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 How about going east to Boonville or the Turin area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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