BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 For anyone interested in history of lake effect snow off of Buffalo I highly recommend this one. I have never read this document and came across some insane lake snow events in the past in our area. http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No3/1977v002no03-Dewey.pdf Here are just a few of the note-worthy events. October 18-19 1930 The first lake-effect snowfall of the season in the vicinity of Buffalo, New York usually occurs mid-November. However, in 1930, a lake-effect snowstorm struck the region as early as October 18-19. Over four feet of snow occurred in the southern and western suburbs of Buffalo during this weekend storm stranding many tourists who had been out enjoying the colorful autumn foliage. December 8-10 1937 Wiggin described two examples of a severe lake-effect storm occurrence in Buffalo. The first memorable storm noted by Wiggin occurred during December 8-10 1937. A fall of three feet of snow was observed in North Buffalo and over four feet of snow in the northern suburbs. December 14-18, 1945 The second Lake-effect storm described by Wiggins occurred on December 14-18, 1945. The airport measured 36.6 inches in this particular storm and falls in excess of 70 inches were reported just four to six miles to the south. The governor of New York declared a state of emergency for the western portion of New York. November 22-23, 1956 A Lake Erie induced lake-effect snowstorm on November 22-23, 1956, which produced up to 48 inches of snow just to the south and west of Buffalo. November 22-23 1957 This event repeated itself exactly one year later on November 22-23 1957 in the same area and with similar magnitudes of snowfall of up to 48 inches. December 5-11, 1958 Perhaps the most intense lake-effect storm ever to hit the Buffalo, New York area lasted from December 5-11, 1958. A storm total of six feet (with some unofficial measurements of over eight feet) of snowfall was observed in the snow-belt just south of Buffalo. November 23-24, 1970 A lake-effect snowstorm on November 23-24, 1970 produced only 24 inches of snow, however, the most memorable aspect of this storm was the extensive 12 foot drifts throughout the southern suburbs of Buffalo. November 29-Dec 2, 1976 The lake effect snowstorm originating over Lake Erie during November 29-December 2nd paralyzed activities in portions of the seven western counties of the State. Snowfall amounts exceeded 48 inches in Hamburg and at the Buffalo Airport. The official storm total was 40.5" of snow. December 16-19 1983 Had storm totals of 40" and higher in the city of Buffalo and its surrounding suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 And obviously you can add 1995, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 to that list as well. Makes a nice top 16 for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Not particularly excited about the general lake effect setup Fri/Fri. Night into Saturday, at least off of Ontario. 850mb temps will briefly drop down to -6 to -9C, and with lake temps running right around 10C, there will be at least some moderate instability developing downstream of the lakes. There's at least some potential for flakes with the surface trough moving through the area late tomorrow afternoon/evening, but this trough will also shift winds to the NW/NNW and moisture behind is also not stellar. There are some small(ish) differences between the NAM/GFS at this time. The GFS is slightly quicker with the surface trough moving through, but it's position of the H7/H85 low combined with a flatter ridge building over the western Great Lakes keeps a brief period of NW winds during the night Friday. It also looks like it briefly tries to develop an inverted trough later in the night which backs winds slightly more. I don't have BUFKIT running on my computer (some issue with the graphics card I have it appears), but here's a sounding from the FZY/Liverpool area at 4AM Saturday morning. The moist layer is at least sufficiently deep (~5-6kft), with unidirectional wind through the moist layer. Temperatures are almost certainly cold enough for snow at this point, and if any moisture is left some spotty snow showers could develop even outside the higher elevations of the Allegheny Plateau. The biggest issue with this event is the race between moisture and cold temperatures. There could be spotty snow showers/graupel mixing in tomorrow with the surface trough if any convective cells can develop. I wouldn't expect much pure LES other than a few snow showers off Lake Ontario. Lake Erie will likely see a brief connection with Huron which may help spark some more organized activity, but similar issues will plague the area as well. Perhaps a slushy coating or half inch, with slightly more on the hills, but generally nothing significant. Of course, I could be completely wrong and we'll see another October like event. It's certainly possible, although Oct's 850mb temperatures were slightly colder with warmer lake temps, and relied on extreme frictional/surface convergence to get a significant band. For the lazy: It's going to rain and be windy, but probably won't snow much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nice write up Apps! Some high winds out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Lots of lakeshore flooding in this area. Quite a few road closures. Check out these graphs showing the water level changes at Toledo and Buffalo. http://news.weathernationtv.com/2015/11/12/lake-erie-flooding-caused-seiche-seiche/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Welcome back Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nice, will look forward to that. I noticed a new hardcover book for sale in Wegmans chronicling the storm. Wrapped in plastic, so I couldn't tell if it's more fluff than substance. Bit pricey too - $40... There was 2 left at Tops. I took the plunge and was pleasantly surprised that it wasn't just a picture book but had a summary and detailed day to day recap of the events during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I encountered a little bit of snow near Jamestown yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Let the LES season begin baby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 Let the LES season begin baby!! Welcome back man! I've been lonely here by myself. Please post more haha! I just finished my Anniversary video for last years storm. Hope you guys enjoy as you get to see it before anyone else. There was a few duplicate photos in which I apologize for, it was tough to keep all those pictures organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 I encountered a little bit of snow near Jamestown yesterday.. Nice, some places made out quite well. 5 inches of new snow in Humphrey, NY (Cattaraugus County) so far in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 Here we go GENUINE COLD WEATHER HAS BEEN TOUGH TO COME BY SO FAR THIS FALL...AS THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS HAVE GENERALLYKEPT ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR LOCKED NORTH OF 60N. A STRONG PACIFICJET...TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TO MODERATE EL NINO EVENTS...HAS BEEN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FACTOR IN BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDAIR INTRUSIONS UP TO THIS POINT. THIS RESULTED IN NEAR NORMALTEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGSTHROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS MONTH. THIS PATTERN MAY BE SHOWING SIGNSOF BREAKING DOWN THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS SIBERIA HAS LIKELY HELPED TO INTENSIFYTHE COLD AIR OVER THAT REGION...AND NOW SEVERAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCEPACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THIS COLD AIR MAY SOON BE ONTHE MOVE. AFTER MORE THAN SIX WEEKS OF A PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE NAOWITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...MEDIUM TOLONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BLOCKING MAY FINALLY SET UPOVER THAT REGION WHILE WEST COAST RIDGING SETS UP OFF NORTH AMERICA.THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WOULDENCOURAGE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR TO CROSS THE NORTHERNLATITUDES OF THE CONTINENT...POSSIBLY TAKING AIM ON THE U.S. PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL LATER THANKSGIVING WEEK ORTHANKSGIVING WEEKEND...BUT IT IS THE FIRST TIME THAT IT IS BEINGSTRONGLY SUGGESTED BY SO MANY OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OFBOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS ALLPANS OUT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 It's coming fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Interest is gaining... Hopefully it comes before I leave for Ohio next Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It's already backing off on the end of November, and for you cold and snow lovers(?).... don't look ahead into December. Just grin, whistle, and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Lake effect signal for at least Ontario showing up towards the weekend on the ECM/GFS. Euro itself had about 0.6" of QPF off Ontario from Saturday-Sunday. May get bored later and write up something small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Lake effect signal for at least Ontario showing up towards the weekend on the ECM/GFS. Euro itself had about 0.6" of QPF off Ontario from Saturday-Sunday. May get bored later and write up something small After this weekend cold shot, longer range modeling is saying make your tee-times, dust off your frisbees, and break out the suntan lotion for Thanskgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 After this weekend cold shot, longer range modeling is saying make your tee-times, dust off your frisbees, and break out the suntan lotion for Thanskgiving. Only for a very short period of time for thanksgiving though. Another shot of even colder air comes very shortly after t-giving. The pattern looks great compared to what I thought it would be like with an all time record Nino. Nice bit from BUF NWS. There is a shot at SW winds before they veer as well if the air is cold enough. Going to be a close call. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A CHILLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY LIMITING THE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID LEVEL WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 The Canadian and GFS have a pronounced cold outbreak after the warm-up late next week. The Euro hints at it shortly after the 240 hour timeframe. I predict this year will have plenty of ups and downs in terms of temperatures. I don't expect to see a long duration cold outbreak until February or so. This will allow lake Erie to remain ice free for the majority of winter, but that means no consistent snow-cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pretty big inconsistencies between runs, but the GFS/ECM have both been spitting out soundings like this for the upcoming weekend: I don't have bufkit working on my computer, but I'd imagine that's gonna be a ton of LI instability there considering there's even some conditional instability in that sounding. Extremely deep moist layer up to 600mb as well. Of course, this is all 5-6 days away, so for now it's only something to keep watching. Although the cold shot will be rather transient, it will be nice to see some cold before Thanksgiving comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pretty big inconsistencies between runs, but the GFS/ECM have both been spitting out soundings like this for the upcoming weekend: gfs_2015111618_150_43.5--76.25.png I don't have bufkit working on my computer, but I'd imagine that's gonna be a ton of LI instability there considering there's even some conditional instability in that sounding. Extremely deep moist layer up to 600mb as well. Of course, this is all 5-6 days away, so for now it's only something to keep watching. Although the cold shot will be rather transient, it will be nice to see some cold before Thanksgiving comes along. You're right, the models are all over. GFS 132 Hours: Thanksgiving day 234 hours: GEM 132 Hours Thanksgiving 232 Hours: (shows the cold air moving in shortly after again) Euro @ 140 hours Euro at 240 hours Cold air looks to be moving in thanksgiving weekend on GEM and Euro and showed it on GFS until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 CPC has a cold outlook for 6-14 days. The spread is all over for NAO & AO But PNA is trending positive which is great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 That Alaskan ridges is a touch to far East. The 18Z GFS ensembles were extremely progressive through most of the run. It was solid earlier today though. The model variance from run to run is just huge right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Until the heat energy trapped in the Pacific dissipates or redirects, all we'll see for cold is the 'back end of the whip'- brief, N-S aligned cold shots- between warm, wet visits. When that heat energy is still strong enough to blast loads like this all the way to the Arctic in mid-November, well.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html .....our models aren't prepared to handle the 'micro-level' effects of something like this, so they go all wonky until it settles down. I'm gonna' guess- it'll be five weeks without a good seven day forecast. (Francis and Vavrus win again! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Models have absolutely no idea what to do with that second vort max that rounds the base of the trough to the west of here. Last night's Euro tries to bomb the hell out of it, and the result is a very strong surface low near Lake Huron that transfers over to coastal which then retrogrades inland to the Montreal area. The result is a flow that's slightly much less favorable for LES, although it spits out some very light QPF around the area. GFS on the other hand has a weaker surface/H85 low that tracks north of Ontario, with a generally W/WNW flow for a 12-24 hour period. 06z GFS BUFKIT has equilibrium levels of 16-19kft and some absolutely crazy lift (up to 30microbars!) around the Tug. Of course small details don't matter yet, but the potential is still there for some lake effect accumulations this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Giddy up THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE INTERESTING FOR THE COMING WEEKEND ASMODEL CONSENSUS IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHERSTORM SYSTEM SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THENORTHERN ROCKIES PHASES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...LEADING TO THEDEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THATWILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTOONTARIO. WHILE THERE REMAIN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK...THEDIFFERENCES ARE BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNSAND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWSTHIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ON SUNDAY.STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Polar Vortex at end of GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Until the heat energy trapped in the Pacific dissipates or redirects, all we'll see for cold is the 'back end of the whip'- brief, N-S aligned cold shots- between warm, wet visits. When that heat energy is still strong enough to blast loads like this all the way to the Arctic in mid-November, well.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html .....our models aren't prepared to handle the 'micro-level' effects of something like this, so they go all wonky until it settles down. I'm gonna' guess- it'll be five weeks without a good seven day forecast. (Francis and Vavrus win again! ) It will be interesting to see the battle between above average Siberian snow cover and a record setting basin wide Nino. There are many differences between this years Nino and the record warm 97 Nino though so I don't expect a similar year temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nice video Buf, I gotta say I'm getting more excited for the weekend, 18z goofus looked good so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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