WNash Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The language about intensity hasn't changed - I'm just thinking JRR is filling in details. From earlier forecast discussions I didn't have high hopes that Buffalo from downtown to the north was going to get the most intense snow anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FULLAUTO Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Some impressive LES parameters showing up on the 12z GFS Bufkit data starting from around 0z Wednesday till Friday 0z, it has almost 12 hours of constant 245'ish flow from 0z-12z Wed and the same thing from 0z-12z Thursday but this time the flow veers from 230 out to 245 and moves slowly towards the 255-260 range. I'm thinking by the end of next weekend we could be looking at snowfall totals similar to the Dec'01 event with the exception of where the bullseye is which will be right around central Erie county. I was there in Montague, the RED ZONE for 5 days. The night we got there we listened to the NOAA weather radio broadcast storm totals of 40-60". We had food and the sleds were gassed up. On New Years eve I went outside and looked up at the sky. as the clock struck midnight, the stars were visible. The skies had cleared. I knew it was over. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm taking the AFD with a grain of salt... still to early to buy into any solid detailed forecasting yet. We're still 3+ days from the start of the first event and I'm sure the meso details will be adjusted a dozen times this weekend. Still quite a bit of spread on where the initial low will track and eventually take up camp and then how the waves will spin down through the trough. This will be a big event for WNY... Just maybe not to a historic level... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I was there in Montague, the RED ZONE for 5 days. The night we got there we listened to the NOAA weather radio broadcast storm totals of 40-60". We had food and the sleds were gassed up. On New Years eve I went outside and looked up at the sky. as the clock struck midnight, the stars were visible. The skies had cleared. I knew it was over. Epic. Awesome! Do you have any pics/video from the event? Did you chase this or reside in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm taking the AFD with a grain of salt... still to early to buy into any solid detailed forecasting yet. We're still 3+ days from the start of the first event and I'm sure the meso details will be adjusted a dozen times this weekend. Still quite a bit of spread on where the initial low will track and eventually take up camp and then how the waves will spin down through the trough. This will be a big event for WNY... Just maybe not to a historic level... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, we will have a much better idea on this by the weekend. I'm becoming more pessimistic on the initial event Sunday Night-Monday. I think the better stuff comes Tues-Sat. As already mentioned it doesn't take much to really get totals high if the band is really strong. I received 18 inches in 3 hours during last years Snovember in the hardest part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Here are some analogs that are popping up in latest model runs. GFS: Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The one thing that amazed me the most with snovember was the incredible intensity that was found on the northern edge of that band. I ended up seeing 34 inches between midnight and 7am that first day. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not to mention here was the snowfall forecast 12 hours before the first storm began... And here is how it verified... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not to mention here was the snowfall forecast 12 hours before the first storm began... And here is how it verified... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah a little off with the placement and really off with the totals. But you can't blame them really. Who is going to forecast 4-6' of snow in a 24 hour period. That's why LES is usually a now-cast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Totally agree. Buffalo NWS does it better than anyone else... Just a shame the general public throws so much ridicule over these "blown" forecast. Storm prediction has advanced so much in recent years... Yet it's still amazing how unique and really unpredictable LES storms end up being. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Totally agree. Buffalo NWS does it better than anyone else... Just a shame the general public throws so much ridicule over these "blown" forecast. Storm prediction has advanced so much in recent years... Yet it's still amazing how unique and really unpredictable LES storms end up being. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah they started talking about the event a full week before it happened. This time around 10 days before the start of the event. You can't get better lead time than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah a little off with the placement and really off with the totals. But you can't blame them really. Who is going to forecast 4-6' of snow in a 24 hour period. That's why LES is usually a now-cast event. Amazing how good the placement is, in my opinion. They were wrong on the northern edge by maybe 4-5 miles and missed that Chatauqua Ridge set up (which was at the end if I recall). And as you say, who can blame them on the amounts - no idea how many sd this was above the mean, but if they had forecast 75 inches, people would have laughed. "Lots" is a good enough answer, and 30" covers that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Both the ggem and euro look more wnw then anything to me..They both have definitely shifted south with the bands.. Congrats the 0z GFS goes to town with that WNW flow from 12z Wed-15z Thurs with lake equilibrium exceeding 15K at times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Congrats the 0z GFS goes to town with that WNW flow from 12z Wed-15z Thurs with lake equilibrium exceeding 15K at times! Mean Wind Direction from latest GFS from Bufkit View My Video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Here is a quick breakdown of the 0z GFS bufkit data wind directions. 0z-15z Monday 265°->270° 15z-18z Monday 265°->260° 18z-21z Monday 260°->255° 21z Monday-0z Tuesday 255°->245° 0z-9z Tuesday 245°->235° 12z-21z Tuesday 235°->225° 21z Tuesday- 06z Wednesday 235°->240° 06z-09z Wednesday 240°>>>250° 12z-15z Wednesday 305°->295° 18z Wednesday-15z Thursday 280°->295° 18z Thursday-0z Friday 275°->260° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Congrats the 0z GFS goes to town with that WNW flow from 12z Wed-15z Thurs with lake equilibrium exceeding 15K at times! Ehh... One run... It shoots the main low half way back to Alaska... Might be a tad overdone... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Rain storm to wrap around snow? Surface temps are 33-37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Rain storm to wrap around snow? Surface temps are 33-37 Initially yes on the Canadian and then it changes it over to frozen precip, the bottom one is the GFS which is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Initially yes on the Canadian and then it changes it over to frozen precip, the bottom one is the GFS which is much colder. Solid Miller B, need that transfer faster to stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Definitely becoming clearer no one area is going to really get whacked... That bands gonna be on the move quite a bit. Think the area that sees the most will be around Hanburg or just south, since it seems like the models like a little less of a southwesterly flow and more of a westerly flow through the event. I think everyone from north Tonawanda to Ellicottville sees 1' with a bullseye around Hamburg/Boston/Wales of around 2-3' over the course of the week. A nice event for sure but I don't think it's going to be historic like it looked a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Definitely becoming clearer no one area is going to really get whacked... That bands gonna be on the move quite a bit. Think the area that sees the most will be around Hanburg or just south, since it seems like the models like a little less of a southwesterly flow and more of a westerly flow through the event. I think everyone from north Tonawanda to Ellicottville sees 1' with a bullseye around Hamburg/Boston/Wales of around 2-3' over the course of the week. A nice event for sure but I don't think it's going to be historic like it looked a few days ago. Agreed btw lake equilibrium goes through the roof on the 06z GFS, someone is going to get slammed hard with that WNW on 0z Wednesday-12z Thursday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Agreed btw lake equilibrium goes through the roof on the 06z GFS, someone is going to get slammed hard with that WNW on 0z Wednesday-12z Thursday period. I saw that too. That was mighty impressive. I still like 2-4' for the week off Erie and 3-5' off Ontario. It does look like persistent flow is not going to be a trademark with this event, but the amount of energy to work with for the Lakes, as well the bitter cold air creating a very unstable atmosphere for LES is going to be quite nutty. I expect lots of thunder snow in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FULLAUTO Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Awesome! Do you have any pics/video from the event? Did you chase this or reside in the area? We have property there. We were going for the holiday weekend so the timing was perfect. I knew there was snow on the way but not until we arrived and heard the weather radio forecast did we know what we were in for. I have some pics I'll post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I saw that too. That was mighty impressive. I still like 2-4' for the week off Erie and 3-5' off Ontario. It does look like persistent flow is not going to be a trademark with this event, but the amount of energy to work with for the Lakes, as well the bitter cold air creating a very unstable atmosphere for LES is going to be quite nutty. I expect lots of thunder snow in this setup. where do you think the bullseye is this set up is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 where do you think the bullseye is this set up is? Pretty much where you mentioned it would be off of Erie. I like the southern Tug and northern Oswego Co for off of Ontario. Of course, the 3-5' amounts I'm talking for Ontario are Tug based due to the up-slope enhancement from the flow. This might not be historic, but it's one hell of a way to start a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking interesting for later next week here in monroe wayne counties. Wnw winds are good flows for Kroc area. From city to lake shore on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Criticism of Nov 2014 was completely, 100% unwarranted. Let there be no question! It was a myth floated by Cuomo just talking nonsense. Agreed...plenty of warning prior to that. It was well forecasted. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I agree but I think most locations in Upstate NY can handle a few feet of snow over the course of 5 days to a week without too much disruption. Not trying to take away from the event, cause who wouldn't want a few feet of snow, but just doesn't look to be one of the historic magnitude that was looking possible a few days ago. Watches go up this afternoon though, bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Lake effect events are never considered historic before they happen. Last November certainty wasn't. It was 1-2 feet of snow forecasted with isolated 3 foot totals. I've never seen a les event forecasted to be historic before it becoming a now cast event. Has anyone else seen this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.