Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

[WNash]

LOL check out the totals from last year's winter, i highlighted the north buffalo station for you hehe..

Yeah, I kept seeing that North Buffalo observer (C109) during storm reports last year. He was regularly getting about 2/3rds of what we were getting NE of Delaware Park. I have to imagine he's sited east, closer to Elmwood than to Main Street. But look at all those November #s for the Northtowns. I could puke.

My hunch is that we will do a bit better in our new place than the Kenmore observers - we're better aligned now for any bands lifting north of the airport and getting out to Snyder, in the Judges Row/Treehaven/South Campus area. About as far northeast as you can get and still be in the city. Not great for LES but probably better than most place in North Buffalo.

[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah, I kept seeing that North Buffalo observer (C109) during storm reports last year. He was regularly getting about 2/3rds of what we were getting NE of Delaware Park. I have to imagine he's sited east, closer to Elmwood than to Main Street. But look at all those November #s for the Northtowns. I could puke.

My hunch is that we will do a bit better in our new place than the Kenmore observers - we're better aligned now for any bands lifting north of the airport and getting out to Snyder, in the Judges Row/Treehaven/South Campus area. About as far northeast as you can get and still be in the city. Not great for LES but probably better than most place in North Buffalo.

 

My parents house is on East Treehaven. You live close?

[WNash]

My parents house is on East Treehaven. You live close?

Not far... we're on the Buffalo side, obviously, and closer to the western edge of the neighborhood. I love it here - really friendly neighbors who take a lot of pride in their houses and yards.

[BuffaloWeather]

Not far... we're on the Buffalo side, obviously, and closer to the western edge of the neighborhood. I love it here - really friendly neighbors who take a lot of pride in their houses and yards.

 

We had a really good run from 99-01 in that house and again in 06. I have some pics at my folks house I'll need to grab.

[MillvilleWx]

Looking at the model suite this evening, the depiction for next week continues to look very snowy for the lakes with a pretty good representation at H5. The Euro ensembles came in with the low height center over mid Hudson Bay with a few shortwaves digging and passing over the lakes by mid week. H85 temps were very cold with ensembles pushing down to -15 to -20 in the coldest air. With the lakes running approximately 2-3 std dev. above normal, this cold shot will be like lighting a match to a tank of gasoline with Delta T's at 850 running 22-27 degrees which is extreme for a LES event. Below is a 0z snapshot on Bufkit of the KBUF sounding via the GFS. You'll see the amount of instability available for the setup from just this model alone. Decent low level lapse rates as well are shown in the graphic, which is something I'll be watching closely up until the event occurs as I expect to see these improve further.

 

 

The Euro on a 15:1 ratio showed a really nice setup with 1-2' for the south towns and 2-3' for the southern and central Tug, and that's still almost a good week out. Granted, you can't take models verbatim, but the setup the LR guidance is showing is conducive for a pretty hefty snowfall. The big question that will not answered until basically up to game time will be the band progression. For now, the persistent flow looks very reasonable on the models with a majority flow around 240-270 until the low fades out and we get a more WNW swing where the other areas like ROC and Syracuse can cash in. The best time for the heaviest snowfall is centered in the mid week (Tue-Thur) with Wednesday being the big day for the heaviest snowfall with a nice vort swinging over the lakes and inducing a really nice long fetch for both Lakes (Erie long fetch of course being the entire lake). 

 

Overall, the setup is looking mighty nice for the usual suspects with potential for long lived LES bands with thunder and lightning possible just checking on the soundings. The first flakes will fly after the main low pressure on Sunday moves out and a strong cold front blasts across the lakes providing a nice start to the week. The week continues with a couple H5 vorts swinging down over the Lakes causing the ignition of the main bands this week which could be crazy good if current models have the correct idea. I can see some areas walking with 4-6' in the setup around the Tug and 3-5' in the Buffalo south towns. Buffalo and northern Buffalo will be a tough call as the main fetch looks to hold around that 250-270 mark for awhile, but with a small adjustment north, or a wider band, areas around town could see 1-2' if bands were to waver. Of course, that would put a small dent in the larger totals as a classic historic event usually needs stationary banding, but who needs historic when you can spread the love around. 

[ayuud11]

Looking at the model suite this evening, the depiction for next week continues to look very snowy for the lakes with a pretty good representation at H5. The Euro ensembles came in with the low height center over mid Hudson Bay with a few shortwaves digging and passing over the lakes by mid week. H85 temps were very cold with ensembles pushing down to -15 to -20 in the coldest air. With the lakes running approximately 2-3 std dev. above normal, this cold shot will be like lighting a match to a tank of gasoline with Delta T's at 850 running 22-27 degrees which is extreme for a LES event. Below is a 0z snapshot on Bufkit of the KBUF sounding via the GFS. You'll see the amount of instability available for the setup from just this model alone. Decent low level lapse rates as well are shown in the graphic, which is something I'll be watching closely up until the event occurs as I expect to see these improve further.

 

KBUF 1.png

 

The Euro on a 15:1 ratio showed a really nice setup with 1-2' for the south towns and 2-3' for the southern and central Tug, and that's still almost a good week out. Granted, you can't take models verbatim, but the setup the LR guidance is showing is conducive for a pretty hefty snowfall. The big question that will not answered until basically up to game time will be the band progression. For now, the persistent flow looks very reasonable on the models with a majority flow around 240-270 until the low fades out and we get a more WNW swing where the other areas like ROC and Syracuse can cash in. The best time for the heaviest snowfall is centered in the mid week (Tue-Thur) with Wednesday being the big day for the heaviest snowfall with a nice vort swinging over the lakes and inducing a really nice long fetch for both Lakes (Erie long fetch of course being the entire lake). 

 

Overall, the setup is looking mighty nice for the usual suspects with potential for long lived LES bands with thunder and lightning possible just checking on the soundings. The first flakes will fly after the main low pressure on Sunday moves out and a strong cold front blasts across the lakes providing a nice start to the week. The week continues with a couple H5 vorts swinging down over the Lakes causing the ignition of the main bands this week which could be crazy good if current models have the correct idea. I can see some areas walking with 4-6' in the setup around the Tug and 3-5' in the Buffalo south towns. Buffalo and northern Buffalo will be a tough call as the main fetch looks to hold around that 250-270 mark for awhile, but with a small adjustment north, or a wider band, areas around town could see 1-2' if bands were to waver. Of course, that would put a small dent in the larger totals as a classic historic event usually needs stationary banding, but who needs historic when you can spread the love around. 

Check out the 06z GFS Bufkit data, it's showing extreme instability with a general steady flow of 238-244 over the north towns of buffalo from 0z-12z Wednesday before it quickly veers thru the city and settles down on the southerntier.

[ayuud11]

 

A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE MEAN

LONGWAVE TROUGH AND CROSS THE GREAT LAKES...EACH PRODUCING SOME

LIGHT SNOW OF THEIR OWN AND MORE IMPORTANTLY ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WITH FRESH BATCHES OF COLD AIR...MOISTURE...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE

ASCENT.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COLD AIR WILL

RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST STRONG

SYSTEM. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS LAKE INDUCED

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 10K FEET OR BETTER IN THIS AIRMASS

WITH A WESTERLY OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE ONLY POTENTIAL

NEGATIVE DURING THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE A SOMEWHAT DRY SYNOPTIC

SCALE AIRMASS.

ON TUESDAY THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH FLOW

TURNING SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. SOME LAKE EFFECT MAY

CONTINUE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT THE AIRMASS ALSO TEMPORARILY WARMS

AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WHICH WILL REDUCE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THE

COLD FRONT OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME GENERAL LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY

AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW INCREASING IN ITS WAKE

AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER

AHEAD...AT LEAST TWO MORE CLIPPERS ARE ON THE WAY THURSDAY AND OVER

THE WEEKEND OF THE 16TH/17TH...EACH WITH SOME GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AND

LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

THE PASSING CLIPPERS WILL BRING FREQUENT CHANGES TO WIND

DIRECTION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW

OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE

ONTARIO. THIS WILL SPREAD THE WEALTH...WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT

SNOW POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH A

PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR JAMES BAY FITS THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR

SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE LOWER

LAKES...AND THE FREQUENT CLIPPER PATTERN CAN BE VERY SNOWY FOR

AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COLDEST PERIODS

LIKELY BEING MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

[MillvilleWx]

Check out the 06z GFS Bufkit data, it's showing extreme instability with a general steady flow of 238-244 over the north towns of buffalo from 0z-12z Wednesday before it quickly veers thru the city and settles down on the southerntier.

 

Just checked it. Looking good for basically everyone in this setup. I still really like the south towns and southern and central Tug to get the most benefit from the banding due to the proximity of the closed low over James Bay and the trajectory of the s/w passages. Someone is really gonna cash in in WNY. The question will be who. My guess is Redfield for Ontario and Hamburg/Orchard Park off Erie

[wolfie09]

Best chance of snows SE of the lake seems to be in the Wed/Thursday time frame as winds veer more northerly..Obviously still a long ways out ..

Ggem

[BuffaloWeather]

Awesome write up mills! Looks good for most next week.

[BuffaloWeather]

#2 analog

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016010700&dt=1995010306

 

Some Dec 01 analogs pop up as well.

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016010700&dt=2001122800

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php

 

Has 85, 66, 77, 01 as some of the analogs in both GFS and Canadian Ensembles

[BuffaloWeather]

Best chance of snows SE of the lake seems to be in the Wed/Thursday time frame as winds veer more northerly..Obviously still a long ways out ..

Screenshot_2016-01-07-08-25-06.png

Ggem

cmc_pr6_slp_t850_syracuse_28.png

cmc_pr6_slp_t850_syracuse_29.png

 

Yeah wolfie, as the band oscillates throughout the time period you will definitely get yours as well. I'm thinking later next week as you already pointed out for the best chances.

[lakeeffectkid383]

We may see the first watches go up tomorrow afternoon/night as long as models hold serve through today and tomorrow with the event looking to get going Sunday evening, especially with such high confidence and such a great analog pattern for significant snow. With the criticism that happened with November 2014 (unwarranted in my opinion, but happened none the less) they may want to put out watches a little earlier than normal for what could be a very high impact event.

[ayuud11]

Some impressive LES parameters showing up on the 12z GFS Bufkit data starting from around 0z Wednesday till Friday 0z, it has almost 12 hours of constant 245'ish flow from 0z-12z Wed and the same thing from 0z-12z Thursday but this time the flow veers from 230 out to 245 and moves slowly towards the 255-260 range. I'm thinking by the end of next weekend we could be looking at snowfall totals similar to the Dec'01 event with the exception of where the bullseye is which will be right around central Erie county.

 

[wolfie09]

Both the ggem and euro look more wnw then anything to me..They both have definitely shifted south with the bands..

[WNash]

Both the ggem and euro look more wnw then anything to me..They both have definitely shifted south with the bands..

 

I was about to ask about the 12z Euro. I don't have full access so I'm extrapolating, but it seems like Tuesday afternoon looks to be fairly good for a 240-250 flow?

[wolfie09]

Yes i would say so ..That's when kbuf sees it's heaviest precip, between 12z thur-0z fri..I would say about 1/4" liquid..

 

 

Also some lighter snows on tues

[BuffaloWeather]

Yes i would say so ..That's when kbuf sees it's heaviest precip, between 12z thur-0z fri..I would say about 1/4" liquid..

 

 

Also some lighter snows on tues

 

Never use global models for QPF output. I remember the GFS having very little QPF before Snowvember. It's best to use ensemble suites/analogs to get a good idea of the upper level pattern at the time instead of individual model runs. Once we get into high res range they will be much more accurate.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Never use global models for QPF output. I remember the GFS having very little QPF before Snowvember. It's best to use ensemble suites/analogs to get a good idea of the upper level pattern at the time instead of individual model runs. Once we get into high res range they will be much more accurate.

agreed. I remember before Snowvember they were printing out around .5" of QPF about 5-6 days before so I wouldn't even consider the global QPF output right now for such a mesoscale event. The thing to look for is the overall synoptic pattern and wind flow on the globals to get a good idea of where the bands may set up, which at this time I believe central Erie co. looks to be the bullseye right now, although I think everyone from Niagara Falls to Salamanca will see at least a solid pasting of 1' + .

[wolfie09]

I'm not necessarily looking at the model verbatim, more so the orientation of the bands..The 12z euro has accumulating snow here starting on monday morning , on previous runs it was farther north by a good bit..

[ayuud11]

I have a feeling they are getting ready to issue some watches, no AFD update as of 3:55PM.

 

never mind they just updated it..

 

 

As is usually the case in such a regime...numerous shortwaves
rotating through the parent synoptic-scale trough will cross
the Great Lakes region along with their attendant clipper systems.
While these systems will produce just some limited light snow
of their own from time to time...these will greatly impact both
the strength and location of the lake effect activity by delivering
fresh shots of cold air...enhancing background moisture and lift...
and driving fluctuations in the low level flow that will result in
the lake snows meandering north and south across both far western
and north central New York. As a result...both of these regions
can expect multiple bouts of accumulating snowfall...some of which
could be significant/high impact in nature.

Delving a little more closely into the forecast details...cold
air will rapidly deepen across the area Sunday night in the wake
of the Sunday/S strong system...with any lingering synoptically-
driven mixed light rain and wet snow showers consequently changing
over to all snow while tapering off. At the same time the deepening
cold air will drive the development of a lake response first off
Lake Erie and then Lake Ontario on a general westerly to west-
southwesterly low level flow...with this then continuing right
through Monday. 12z BUFKIT data still suggests that lake eqls
will rise to between 10-12 kft during this period which is plenty
enough for a healthy lake response...though a drier than ideal
airmass below this level remains as a potential negative influence.

Monday night and Tuesday the first clipper system looks to ripple
across the Great Lakes along with some light snow...while forcing
the lake snows to migrate northward and likely weaken through Tuesday
morning as the low level flow backs to south-southwesterly and becomes
increasingly sheared...and as milder air is drawn northeastward into
our region. With the passage of its trailing cold front Tuesday
afternoon/evening...renewed cold air advection/veering winds and a
resultant increase in fetch should then help to re-invigorate the lake
bands and drive them back southward later Tuesday afternoon and night...
with the lake effect snows then more or less continuing on a general
westerly flow Wednesday. Looking further out in time toward the end
of the period...it looks as if we/ll probably repeat this whole process
again Wednesday night and Thursday as the next clipper system crosses
our region.

[WNash]

Here's the relevant part of the AFD from 4:02:

 

DELVING A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS...COLD
AIR WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SUNDAY/S STRONG SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY-
DRIVEN MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS CONSEQUENTLY CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW WHILE TAPERING OFF. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING
COLD AIR WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE RESPONSE FIRST OFF
LAKE ERIE AND THEN LAKE ONTARIO ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THIS THEN CONTINUING RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z BUFKIT DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT LAKE EQLS
WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 10-12 KFT DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS PLENTY
ENOUGH FOR A HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE...THOUGH A DRIER THAN IDEAL
AIRMASS BELOW THIS LEVEL REMAINS AS A POTENTIAL NEGATIVE INFLUENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RIPPLE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE FORCING
THE LAKE SNOWS TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED...AND AS MILDER AIR IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION/VEERING WINDS AND A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN FETCH SHOULD THEN HELP TO RE-INVIGORATE THE LAKE
BANDS AND DRIVE THEM BACK SOUTHWARD LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THEN MORE OR LESS CONTINUING ON A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...IT LOOKS AS IF WE/LL PROBABLY REPEAT THIS WHOLE PROCESS
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
OUR REGION.

[WNash]

So Rozbicki did the long term forecast, and he looks in agreement with you guys, generally westerly to WSW flow, backing as far as a SSW but with shear and temp issues, and foresees at least two iterations of this process. Still, it sounds somewhat like a "spread the wealth" scenario, depending on how bad the shear is. He wisely doesn't get precise with compass headings, so maybe that W to WSW will be Metro favorable.

[BuffaloWeather]

So Rozbicki did the long term forecast, and he looks in agreement with you guys, generally westerly to WSW flow, backing as far as a SSW but with shear and temp issues, and foresees at least two iterations of this process. Still, it sounds somewhat like a "spread the wealth" scenario, depending on how bad the shear is. He wisely doesn't get precise with compass headings, so maybe that W to WSW will be Metro favorable.

 

I think its 3 clippers in total after the initial low pressure system. Pretty awesome stuff. I don't see a long persistent flow that was evident in last years event so do not expect nearly those totals unless we get some really high snowfall rates. Which could be possible with all that synoptic moisture added and those record warm lake temps.

[BuffaloWeather]

I don't think we see LES Watches untl Tomorrow afternoon/Saturday timeframe. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on the track of the first low pressure system which would have a pretty big impact on the initial LES bands direction/intensity.

 

Look at that spread...

 

[rochesterdave]

Criticism of Nov 2014 was completely, 100% unwarranted. Let there be no question! It was a myth floated by Cuomo just talking nonsense.

[WNash]

Criticism of Nov 2014 was completely, 100% unwarranted. Let there be no question! It was a myth floated by Cuomo just talking nonsense.

A bunch of finger pointing nonsense from the governor. But it did lead him to budget some money for additional state funded ASOS locations, so at least something came out of that bluster.

[lakeeffectkid383]

The NWS doesn't sound as enthused about the event as they did yesterday. Sounds like they believe there will be a lot more oscillation rather than the band sitting anywhere for too long, and where it does sit the longest sounds like it will be more on a westerly flow according to them...

[WNash]

The NWS doesn't sound as enthused about the event as they did yesterday. Sounds like they believe there will be a lot more oscillation rather than the band sitting anywhere for too long, and where it does sit the longest sounds like it will be more on a westerly flow according to them...

You sure you're not reading something into the forecast discussion? I just went back and re-read yesterday's and they use the exact same language.

Yesterday:

ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD

TO A GREATLY HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW

DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.

...THE OVERALL PATTERN DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

AND HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AT TIMES NEXT

WEEK.

Today:

THIS EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-

SCALE PATTERN WILL DIRECT REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN AIR

ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN ... A GREATLY HEIGHTENED

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKES

ERIE AND ONTARIO.

...BOTH OF THESE REGIONS

CAN EXPECT MULTIPLE BOUTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...SOME OF WHICH

COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/HIGH IMPACT IN NATURE.

[lakeeffectkid383]

AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING

COLD AIR WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE RESPONSE FIRST OFF

LAKE ERIE AND THEN LAKE ONTARIO ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TO WEST-

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THIS THEN CONTINUING RIGHT

THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z BUFKIT DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT LAKE EQLS

WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 10-12 KFT DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS PLENTY

ENOUGH FOR A HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE...THOUGH A DRIER THAN IDEAL

AIRMASS BELOW THIS LEVEL REMAINS AS A POTENTIAL NEGATIVE INFLUENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RIPPLE

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE FORCING

THE LAKE SNOWS TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMES

INCREASINGLY SHEARED...AND AS MILDER AIR IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO

OUR REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY

AFTERNOON/EVENING...RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION/VEERING WINDS AND A

RESULTANT INCREASE IN FETCH SHOULD THEN HELP TO RE-INVIGORATE THE LAKE

BANDS AND DRIVE THEM BACK SOUTHWARD LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...

WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THEN MORE OR LESS CONTINUING ON A GENERAL

WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME TOWARD THE END

OF THE PERIOD...IT LOOKS AS IF WE/LL PROBABLY REPEAT THIS WHOLE PROCESS

AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES

OUR REGION.

Sounds to me like they think there coukd be some dry air problems in the first "round", then the flow backs to the point that there's little fetch and possible high shear, then they make it seem as though the band will veer back through the city then settle more into ski country based on the fact that they say westerly flow.