DeltaT13 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Does anyone know why they resolution of these analogs is so piss poor? They do a decent job of identifying snowfall amounts, but the placement is so out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Does anyone know why they resolution of these analogs is so piss poor? They do a decent job of identifying snowfall amounts, but the placement is so out to lunch. I'm guessing because the analogs show somewhat varying wind directions? I personally wouldn't use them for band placement...only as an idea that some significant les is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Man that is one nice setup for the northtowns on the 12z GFS between 18z Tuesday and 0z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Man that is one nice setup for the northtowns on the 12z GFS between 18z Tuesday and 0z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Lake Erie is 40-44 degrees throughout the lake. Don't think we've ever had a lake effect event in middle January with lake temps like those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Lake Erie is 40-44 degrees throughout the lake. Don't think we've ever had a lake effect event in middle January with lake temps like those. Remember that storm last year... 4" per hour snowfall rates in the metro and over a foot at the airport... And the lake looked like this... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Lake Erie is 40-44 degrees throughout the lake. Don't think we've ever had a lake effect event in middle January with lake temps like those. The 1966, 1977, and 1985 storms came with a lake temp of 32F or 33F. The Dec. 2001 storm started with a warm lake (43F). I wonder if the delta-Ts next week will be comparable to 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 1966, 1977, and 1985 storms came with a lake temp of 32F or 33F. The Dec. 2001 storm started with a warm lake (43F). I wonder if the delta-Ts next week will be comparable to 2001. Yeah I don't think we have ever seen lake temps that we have this year in a mid January LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Kbuf issued a HWO- THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONGADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTHAMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVELONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHAMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEPTROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGHAMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CANBE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THISAPPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL.DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ASTRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVELWAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVESWILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION...SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THISTIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALEPATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING...SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE ANDONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. And from Forecast discussion: AFTER THAT...THINGS LOOK TO GET CONSIDERABLY MORE INTERESTINGEARLY ON NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE FORCESDOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE/DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSSCENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THE CORE OF WHICH WILL SLOWLYMEANDER ITS WAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR HUDSON BAY. THISPATTERN WILL DIRECT MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN -15C AND -20C EARLY ON IN THEWEEK...AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BEYOND THE END OF THEPERIOD. WITH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO REMAINING WIDE OPEN...ITSHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING THAT ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATLYHEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OFBOTH LAKES.IN CONCERT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MEANTROUGH AND PROVIDING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE...THEDEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ASTRONG/DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE RESULTING LAKE BANDSMIGRATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODULATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOWBROUGHT ABOUT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES. WHILE THE EXACTFORECAST DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGEPOINT...THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THEPOTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING... SIGNIFICANT...AND HIGH IMPACT LAKEEFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICHWILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Remember that storm last year... 4" per hour snowfall rates in the metro and over a foot at the airport... And the lake looked like this... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That picture is from 1/14 and that Lake snow event was 1/8 to 1/11 so the lake was definitely not that ice covered for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That picture is from 1/14 and that Lake snow event was 1/8 to 1/11 so the lake was definitely not that ice covered for that event. 7 Jan 2015 GL image at http://image.mlive.com/home/mlive-media/width480/img/weather_impact/photo/16729556-mmmain.jpg Lake Erie was definitely much more open in the eastern basin. Temp at the intake at Buffalo was 34F on 1/7/2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hmm my mistake. I knew we were cold this time last year. Didn't realize Erie iced up that much in three days. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hmm my mistake. I knew we were cold this time last year. Didn't realize Erie iced up that much in three days. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah once it gets to 32 degs it can freeze up rapidly. Especially with the type of cold we had last year. Unless we get that type of cold this year and for a long period of time there is no way Erie completely freezes over this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'm pretty sure this is the benchmark location for low pressure systems for high impact LES events as KBUF talks about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Look at those 850s, that perfectly aligned flow, and the 2nd enhancement from the middle level wave about to come down with a reinforcement of cold air and synoptic lift. Just gorgeous stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Keep in mind, most mets are not hugging the GFS att. If an apps runner were to materialize, that low would be 1000 miles east, resulting in a NW flow. But I'd defer to your deep knowledge base and resources. Love it. Keep the posts and incredible links coming. Not sure I've ever heard bench mark low plcmt used in a LES event- but it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 AND the Euro caves to the GFS. Fun stuff to watch. For now, I have to hang my hopes on the Canadian for a synoptic event in Kroc followed by NW winds. But signs increasingly point to a classic setup for LES on the east side of the lakes. Kroc sometimes gets on on the back end of these events- with clipper energy changing the trajectory. But often the moisture is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The long range outlook for the Lakes is pretty stellar. The low height placement Rich was talking about is pretty classic for those larger events because the deep cold air and flow is directed over each lake, Erie and Ontario. This flow would provide a great long fetch connection across Erie in full, and also the prestigious Superior-Huron-Ontario connection that has garnered some of the most ridiculous events for the Tug. With a cold upper low center over the southern Hudson, the base of the upper low is in position for numerous shortwaves to cross underneath and "spark up" the banding needed for a classic LES rakage. With the Lake running 2-3 Standard deviations above normal for Erie for this time of year, the Delta T's for the surface-850 run 20-25C making for the potential for large scale ascent as Kbuf has been alluding to. The big question for a historic outbreak will be the persistent flow off each lake supportive of stationary bands. Like last winters Nov event, the flow off each lake remained off a 260 fetch and lasted for several hours due to the positioning of upper low to the north. The back to back banding development was aided by a series of s/w pieces rotating along the base of the H5 low. This seems to be a similar setup, so the overall potential for something fairly significant is there. I would say the southern Tug has a great shot of getting 3-5' from a multi day event, especially with persistent flow. Anyone else care to back me up on this? I'm kind of just using my phone to see all this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The long range outlook for the Lakes is pretty stellar. The low height placement Rich was talking about is pretty classic for those larger events because the deep cold air and flow is directed over each lake, Erie and Ontario. This flow would provide a great long fetch connection across Erie in full, and also the prestigious Superior-Huron-Ontario connection that has garnered some of the most ridiculous events for the Tug. With a cold upper low center over the southern Hudson, the base of the upper low is in position for numerous shortwaves to cross underneath and "spark up" the banding needed for a classic LES rakage. With the Lake running 2-3 Standard deviations above normal for Erie for this time of year, the Delta T's for the surface-850 run 20-25C making for the potential for large scale ascent as Kbuf has been alluding to. The big question for a historic outbreak will be the persistent flow off each lake supportive of stationary bands. Like last winters Nov event, the flow off each lake remained off a 260 fetch and lasted for several hours due to the positioning of upper low to the north. The back to back banding development was aided by a series of s/w pieces rotating along the base of the H5 low. This seems to be a similar setup, so the overall potential for something fairly significant is there. I would say the southern Tug has a great shot of getting 3-5' from a multi day event, especially with persistent flow. Anyone else care to back me up on this? I'm kind of just using my phone to see all this lol I'll back you up! My first take is that this will be a an event that is similar to the Feb. 07 event (the one I chased, with several members of EasternWx)...except for the fact that the bullseye for prolific snows may be 10 miles further north off each lake)...so maybe around Hamburg or so and a few miles south...and a Sandy Creek to Mexico into the Central/Southern Tug (Osceola/Redfield)....3-5' would be low, IMO, for the Tug...more like 7-9' for max totals....just a first guess....off Erie, cut the totals a bit to 4-6'..... Everyone to the NE/E/SE of both lakes should cash in a foot or two by next weekend (16th).....welcome winter '15-'16!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Could Rich see another storm of 4' + just a winter after last years Snowvember? Sure would be incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'll back you up! My first take is that this will be a an event that is similar to the Feb. 07 event (the one I chased, with several members of EasternWx)...except for the fact that the bullseye for prolific snows may be 10 miles further north off each lake)...so maybe around Hamburg or so and a few miles south...and a Sandy Creek to Mexico into the Central/Southern Tug (Osceola/Redfield)....3-5' would be low, IMO, for the Tug...more like 7-9' for max totals....just a first guess....off Erie, cut the totals a bit to 4-6'..... Everyone to the NE/E/SE of both lakes should cash in a foot or two by next weekend (16th).....welcome winter '15-'16!! Ah, the King returns!! Lol. Welcome to winter LEK. I think you guys will be rip roaring up there next week. Rich and co. Will be happy to see you back me up and then some haha. I was being conservative with that 3-5' to leave room for any error. The Tug no doubt will be getting shellacked in this setup. South towns of Buffalo will be getting hammered too. Rich's quest for another historic event is most definitely holding weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'll back you up! My first take is that this will be a an event that is similar to the Feb. 07 event (the one I chased, with several members of EasternWx)...except for the fact that the bullseye for prolific snows may be 10 miles further north off each lake)...so maybe around Hamburg or so and a few miles south...and a Sandy Creek to Mexico into the Central/Southern Tug (Osceola/Redfield)....3-5' would be low, IMO, for the Tug...more like 7-9' for max totals....just a first guess....off Erie, cut the totals a bit to 4-6'..... Everyone to the NE/E/SE of both lakes should cash in a foot or two by next weekend (16th).....welcome winter '15-'16!! There he is! Awesome write-up Mills and LEK! Welcome back LEK, hopefully your able to post more, always love your knowledge. You guys got me really excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Look at that huge area of Lake Erie with surface temps between 8C and 10C. That's 75+ NM long, and almost as wide as the entire lake itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Look at that huge area of Lake Erie with surface temps between 6C and 8C. That's 75+ NM long, and almost as wide as the entire lake itself. With temps 40-50 for 4 straight days we should be able to maintain that warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 With temps 40-50 for 4 straight days we should be able to maintain that warmth. Just wanted to note that I edited my original post to correct the temps, because the color scale was confusing - it's actually warmer than I originally thought in that huge area, between 46F and 50F. So much latent energy stored up in that lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 There he is! Awesome write-up Mills and LEK! Welcome back LEK, hopefully your able to post more, always love your knowledge. You guys got me really excited now. Thanks for the kind words BW (and Millville!) A LOT going on in my personal life....let's just say...I'm staying away from women for awhile!! A good LES event to distract me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 The latest EURO shows a band of lake effect snow for nearly 2 days from a Metro Buffalo line to Springville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The latest EURO shows a band of lake effect snow for nearly 2 days from a Metro Buffalo line to Springville. That wouldn't suck...I've been watching the upstream blocking very closely on the modeling the last couple days. If that James Bay vortex gets tucked in and digs south for a time that bodes well for more northern areas to see some action. Otherwise, probably looking at southtowns to ski country as main impact area - at least off L Erie. Either way, very interesting to see how this plays out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The latest EURO shows a band of lake effect snow for nearly 2 days from a Metro Buffalo line to Springville. Yea that's correct but the 12z GFS is meh for any major LES next week, last night 0z run was much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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