Speedbird747 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Grats on the snow fellas! The Leafs are changing quickly. Letchworth state park. Nice pic. I should really visit more often, I live 5 miles from the park and I've been there once this year. Just had a burst of snow here in Nunda with decent sized flakes. Enough to coat the ground. Came at the right time cause the Bills are frustrating to watch. Enjoy the snow everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Off and on light snow and flurries all day here in Greenville, NY (Greene Co). The fall folliage was amazing this weekend. I have to come up here around this time every year. Currently 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Awesome pics Rjay1 Some impressive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Not bad for such an early season event, especially the totals off Lake Ontario. It's not like those accumulations were on the Tug, I believe Parish and Mexico are both below 500 ft in elevation. Pretty impressed with Randolph's 6" total off Lake Erie. Not bad at all. It looked like they were getting pounded all day. Too bad it'll all be a distant memory by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Not bad for such an early season event, especially the totals off Lake Ontario. It's not like those accumulations were on the Tug, I believe Parish and Mexico are both below 500 ft in elevation. Pretty impressed with Randolph's 6" total off Lake Erie. Not bad at all. It looked like they were getting pounded all day. Too bad it'll all be a distant memory by Tuesday. Yeah really. Not bad at all off both lakes for an early season event. Tom Niziol facebook post: I know it is WAY early in the forecast but one computer model is suggesting another very cold outbreak across the Great Lakes at the end of next week and the outside chance of some significant lake-effect snow south of Buffalo. Here is the ECMWF model run for next Friday. Now the geek stuff...This cold outbreak for the end of next week could very well be a result of the track of a Pacific typhoon this week !! Research has shown that there is a connection between recurving Western Pacific typhoons as they transition to extra-tropical and the release of energy into high latitudes of the North Pacific. The downstream effect is to generate deep troughs over the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge over western N. America and a trough over the eastern U.S. Stay tuned !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 Pretty awesome maps right here that organize all El Nino Types with Temp/Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 From NE forums: WINTER OUTLOOK from Michael Clark from Bamschase.net. Great MET WINTER OUTLOOK from Jonathon Marker @ WeatherVue: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 If I had to choose a forecast for this winter I would probably pick this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 Been really busy but forgot to post the video of my first snow last week on Sunday. Was also doing some research and over the last 15 years since 2000 KBUF has averaged 100.5" of snow per season with 10 out of 15 years receiving more than 100" of snow. I thought that was quite high despite the 2 seasons where we got 36" and 58". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 A few pictures from the ridge today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 A chance at some lake effect rain/snow thurs night/fri morning. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SETUP MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN. LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN INPLACE FOR THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUETHURSDAY EAST OF THE LAKES... WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOL ENOUGHOVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OFTHE TUG/SOUTHERN TIER IN LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN/SNOW WORDING... BUT CHANCES ARE THATDYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS WOULD FORCE THE P-TYPE OVERTO ALL SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Some high winds coming with the next system. Remnants of Hurricane Patricia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Who is ready for some power outages? I love wind storms and this looks to be quite a serious one. ..HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDTWEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND LAKE ERIE SHORE LINE IN WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTY.* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY IS VULNERABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY CROSS WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. ALSO...TREES WITH ANY LEAVES REMAINING CAN BE MORE EASILY BE TOPPLED WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTSGUST OFMPH MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...DUNKIRK 60 800 AM 10/29 BUOY4 NNW FREDONIA 54 300 PM 10/29 MARITIME...ERIE COUNTY...BUFFALO 61 818 AM 10/29 COAST GUARDBUFFALO AIRPORT 59 953 AM 10/29 ASOS1 WSW BUFFALO 53 924 AM 10/29 NWLON...JEFFERSON COUNTY...FORT DRUM AIRFIELD 53 1058 AM 10/29 AWOSWATERTOWN AIRPORT 51 1000 AM 10/29 ASOS...MONROE COUNTY...WEBSTER 57 415 PM 10/29 CWOP NEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...WELLSVILLE MUNICIPAL 41 935 AM 10/28 ASOS...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...OLEAN AIRPORT 32 955 AM 10/28 AWOS4 W CUBA 31 1258 PM 10/28 SAI...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...DUNKIRK AIRPORT 62 1153 AM 10/28 ASOS4 NNW FREDONIA 48 1100 AM 10/28 MARITIMEJAMESTOWN AIRPORT 32 955 AM 10/28 AWOS...ERIE COUNTY...BUFFALO AIRPORT 46 154 PM 10/28 ASOS1 WNW ELMA CENTER 43 113 PM 10/28 CWOP1 WSW BUFFALO 40 1218 PM 10/28 NWLON1 NW YORKSHIRE 33 1215 PM 10/28 CWOP2 S LANCASTER 32 1215 PM 10/28 CWOP...JEFFERSON COUNTY...FORT DRUM AIRFIELD 69 357 PM 10/28 ASOS6 SE WATERTOWN 55 201 PM 10/28 CWOPWATERTOWN AIRPORT 33 415 PM 10/28 ASOS...LEWIS COUNTY...3 NNE COPENHAGEN 46 227 PM 10/28 CWOP6 S COPENHAGEN 35 108 PM 10/28 CWOP...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL 35 354 PM 10/28 ASOS4 WNW LIVONIA 34 205 PM 10/28 CWOP5 SSE LIVONIA 34 107 PM 10/28 CWOP...MONROE COUNTY...1 ENE FAIRPORT 36 1213 PM 10/28 CWOPROCHESTER AIRPORT 35 1139 AM 10/28 ASOS...ONTARIO COUNTY...2 WNW CANANDAIGUA 37 158 PM 10/28 SAI4 WSW VINE VALLEY 33 111 PM 10/28 CWOP...OSWEGO COUNTY...OSWEGO 37 224 PM 10/28 NWLONOSWEGO COUNTY AIRPOR 35 1254 PM 10/28 ASOS...WYOMING COUNTY...6 W PIKE 36 116 PM 10/28 CWOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Winter forecast from FLX Weather: http://flxweather.com/2015-2016-finger-lakes-winter-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Winter forecast from FLX Weather: http://flxweather.com/2015-2016-finger-lakes-winter-forecast/ That is quite a bit colder than I was expecting for this area as a whole. My winter forecast for KBUF is +1 overall for the winter and 95" on the seasonal snowfall total. I was really close last year in both temp and snowfall as I was predicting 105" for KBUF and temps running 1-3 degrees below normal. One thing is for sure is that lake Erie is going to be running way warmer than normal a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 November is one of the biggest transition months for our area and can feature near summer like conditions or 8 feet of snow. The average high varies quite a bit from the beginning to end of November. It looks like the first week of the month will be much warmer than normal. The extended gets kind of blurry. BUF Average: Nov 1st High: 53.3 Low: 38.1 Nov 30th High: 41.5 Low: 29.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 For the next week: Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 71. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 74. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Friday Cloudy, with a high near 63. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Lake Erie is running 1 degree below normal for the date but should be 1-2 above normal by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Probably gonna be windy again in the near future. Enjoying the warmth this November too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 Probably gonna be windy again in the near future. Enjoying the warmth this November too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Our tower's 10m sensor hit 77 the other day and 72F today. One last day of warm weather before the front moves through here and then back to only "mild" weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well this would suck: http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/11/climate_change_lake_effect_snow_buffalo_syracuse_erie_ontario.html#comments And link to full study: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4488/abstract I don't have time to read through the full study, but quotes like this, "The snowfall that was lake effect snow will become lake effect rain events as you go out 85 years from now." Make me go Just so I understand correctly, those arctic sourced cold fronts that come through the NE in 85 years in the dead of winter will drop temps down no lower than 33 degrees. Meaning a January 2095 forecast will look something like this: Increasing clouds with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon along an arctic cold front. Early high of 65, with temperatures nose diving to 35 by evening. Bands of heavy lake effect rain developing overnight on SW winds. Total rainfall at KBUF of 2-3 inches. Sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well this would suck: http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/11/climate_change_lake_effect_snow_buffalo_syracuse_erie_ontario.html#comments And link to full study: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4488/abstract I don't have time to read through the full study, but quotes like this, "The snowfall that was lake effect snow will become lake effect rain events as you go out 85 years from now." Make me go Just so I understand correctly, those arctic sourced cold fronts that come through the NE in 85 years in the dead of winter will drop temps down no lower than 33 degrees. Meaning a January 2095 forecast will look something like this: Increasing clouds with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon along an arctic cold front. Early high of 65, with temperatures nose diving to 35 by evening. Bands of heavy lake effect rain developing overnight on SW winds. Total rainfall at KBUF of 2-3 inches. Sure... Ask him to explain how we had the coldest month in history by a significant margin for our entire sub-forum in February if that's the case. That should not have happened if what he states would be true. Either way, will all be dead by then anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 One week from today marks the anniversary of the Snowvember storm. I'm putting together a nice slideshow on Youtube of the best pictures,radar data, loops, etc... of the storm. Should be done in a few days if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 One week from today marks the anniversary of the Snowvember storm. I'm putting together a nice slideshow on Youtube of the best pictures,radar data, loops, etc... of the storm. Should be done in a few days if not sooner. Nice, will look forward to that. I noticed a new hardcover book for sale in Wegmans chronicling the storm. Wrapped in plastic, so I couldn't tell if it's more fluff than substance. Bit pricey too - $40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Nice, will look forward to that. I noticed a new hardcover book for sale in Wegmans chronicling the storm. Wrapped in plastic, so I couldn't tell if it's more fluff than substance. Bit pricey too - $40... Yeah I saw that too. I might have to purchase even though its quite pricey. It's a storm you tell your kids and grandkids about for sure. Once in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 It will probably be a little to warm to see much if any accumulation here, but a good chance to see some flakes Fri/sat.. Kbuf LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ELEVATION-DEPENDENT WITH AN INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR A POSSIBLE SNEAKY MODERATE SNOW EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 It will probably be a little to warm to see much if any accumulation here, but a good chance to see some flakes Fri/sat.. Kbuf LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ELEVATION-DEPENDENT WITH AN INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR A POSSIBLE SNEAKY MODERATE SNOW EVENT. Could definitely see a few inches in higher terrain off both lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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