coh Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Steady snow here and the temp has dropped to the lowest of the day (23.3). Just watched the evening news and the local mets seem to really be downplaying the potential significance of this event. Glenn Johnson basically said he didn't think there'd be any issues with the morning commute. I was stunned to hear him say that, especially considering this is the first event of the season. I have to be out on the road around 6 am (wife is going in for a minor medical procedure) and I'm pretty anxious about that. Think the local mets are rushing the warm air in too fast. What do those of you with longer experience in this area think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Heavy sleet. Looks like its starting to change to freezing rain. With a High Wind Warning in effect, any ice is going to cause some really big problems overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Just started snowing in Redfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Getting some heavy sleet mixing in here now as well. Had been freezing rain for quite a while... Already have a pretty good icy glaze. Here's the ice build up on my grill. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Transitioning to sleet now, temp has risen all the way to 23.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 It's been snowing here for the last hour and a half. Our Lhasa Apso love to sit on our deck - even in the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Heavy snow to sleet/frz rain now NE of ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 The heavy sleet is lasting much longer than I thought here. Roads are terrible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Heavy sleet here, but temp has started rising more quickly (25.6). I am dreading the thought of having to be out on the roads tomorrow morning. Just hoping that warm air gets here as quickly as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Temp has shot up 3 degrees in 20 mins. Mix of sleet and freezing rain now. Looks like rain surging up through Southern Ontario and SW ny in this radar. Probably only a few more hours for most of far WNY before the full changeover. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Nexrad/BaseReflectivity.aspx?location=USNY0181&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Going to be really close if KBUF beats the 1.1" record low snow in Dec. ...ERIE COUNTY...BUFFALO AIRPORT 0.8 954 PM 12/28 ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Going to be really close if KBUF beats the 1.1" record low snow in Dec. ...ERIE COUNTY... BUFFALO AIRPORT 0.8 954 PM 12/28 ASOS It would be fitting If they didn't break the record because of a pile of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KBUF.html 27 and freezing rain at KBUF now. Might have a chance at the record. If we make it through today, Thurs may have a chance to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Steady light snow continues here in ENY. First real accumulation of the season, even if it only ends up a couple inches. Somewhat concerned about ice tomorrow as we tend to hold onto the cold air a bit longer than other areas of the state in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 .86 QPF in 1.3" of snow/sleet. Looking to change over to rain shortly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Dansville is at 34. That's disheartening. Things warmed up even faster than I had feared. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 1.5" of snow in Redfield so far and still snowing with temps at 21 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Ontario is primed for a long duration event... we'll see how significant but early signs look quite good off the GFS/ECMWF. We'll hope that synoptic moisture is good but generally this seems like it should have very good potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 AO is tanking hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nino weakening as well. R 1+2 , 3 and 3.4 and 4 in that order from left to right: 16DEC2015 25.2 2.4 28.0 2.9 29.5 2.9 30.2 1.723DEC2015 25.2 2.1 28.0 2.7 29.3 2.7 30.0 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 PNA remains positive. Can't say this isn't a pretty good look. Better than anything else we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Amazed to find the temp near 40 and roads clear/wet at 6 am. Guess the forecast was pretty accurate after all. Now we can have winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Don't forget the NAO...some ensembles going negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Last, but not least, the MJO is looking to enter more favorable phases (7&8)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Totaled about 3" here of snow and sleet. Just some occasional freezing drizzle now, with a temp of 28 degrees. Not a high impact SWFE here in ENY, but it was something to watch for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Last, but not least, the MJO is looking to enter more favorable phases (7&8)... MJO is probably the most important indice to keep track of. When its in an unfavorable spot, its virtually impossible to get a good pattern in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 As we get closer and closer to the LES event the less I'm impressed with it. The analogs have backed off on this event as well. The last event was really good for the Tug with 3' amounts, don't expect that this time around. Might have a shot at a few inches here. From KBUF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THEREGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONTWEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY DEVELOP A WEAK BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORSNOW/RAIN MIX AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FOR MAINLYFAVORED 260 TO 270 WIND FLOW AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THETUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVESACROSS THE AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEARING MINUS 12C. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OFSHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND 850MB TEMPSHOVER BETWEEN MINUS 10C AND MINUS 12C.LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL WEAKENFOR ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGAHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LAKEEFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTFLOW. AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS.THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RETREAT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAYAS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THENORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TOAROUND 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 The pattern around mid month looks much better than the next 10 days show. With the AO going negative, the NAO going slightly negative, and PNA remaining positive the cold shouldn't be an issue around mid month. With wide open lakes with record setting temperatures anything is possible! Euro Ensembles: GFS Ensembles: The dream set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Forgot to add the EPO going negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 If only it was a few degrees cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.