BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think the Tug Hill Plateau will see 50-100" of snow this upcoming New Year. lol. In what time period would you be basing this on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ha ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think the Tug Hill Plateau will see 50-100" of snow this upcoming New Year. lol. In what time period would you be basing this on? Well I mean if you mean the entire year of 2015 I could believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Well I mean if you mean the entire year of 2015 I could believe it. I mean it looks really good for the tug the first week of January. But I wouldn't put those numbers on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS has 2 clippers next week with varying wind directions of Lake enhanced/LES snow. Looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 My sister and I will be taking a drive to NYC early Tuesday morning, and the route for that takes us into Northeast PA through the Poconos. How do you think roads conditions will be Tuesday morning, both in WNY and the Poconos region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I mean it looks really good for the tug the first week of January. But I wouldn't put those numbers on it.Still a ways out but can't imagine 50-100" off the Tug with a NW flow setup... I bet there's some good accumulation somewhere near the lakes though.On another note, I gotta imagine people in places like Watertown (and BUF) have to be getting extremely impatient. Especially the people that depend on winter weather for their businesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Still a ways out but can't imagine 50-100" off the Tug with a NW flow setup... I bet there's some good accumulation somewhere near the lakes though. On another note, I gotta imagine people in places like Watertown (and BUF) have to be getting extremely impatient. Especially the people that depend on winter weather for their businesses In 2011-2012 KBUF got 36.7" of snow for the entire year with the snowbelts only getting around 100-125" In 2012-2013 KBUF only got 58.8" of snow with the snowbelts getting 125-150". So this has happened before. Those years especially 11-12 featured conditions that would make it impossible to even make snow so the ski resorts took huge hits. Many snow clearing projects are done with contracts and don't depend on how much snow falls. However, many independent contractors do it by job as more of a side business so they are certainly hurting. El Nino years always feature a warmer than average Nov/Dec, so this was to be expected. The pattern looks much better going forward. Not great but serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Middle of January looks warm. Not like what we have been seeing, but not mid winter type stuff. There is a brief cool down and right back to above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like the days and days of mild to warm and dry are done - step 1 was the precipitation, which my ponded yard tells me we've had plenty of in the last week. Step 2, colder air, is now moving in. The old pattern had it's high points, but it's time to open the door to some winter weather here in upstate NY. Looking forward to this forum hopefully getting more active this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Middle of January looks warm. Not like what we have been seeing, but not mid winter type stuff. There is a brief cool down and right back to above normal. Never trust the weekend CPC- the robots throw some pretty wacky solutions when left unsupervised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Middle of January looks warm. Not like what we have been seeing, but not mid winter type stuff. There is a brief cool down and right back to above normal. Never trust the weekend CPC- the robots throw some pretty wacky solutions when left unsupervised. I think the better answer is lots of ups and downs going forward instead of a raging inferno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 KBUF has me intrigued. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE MUCHIN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEWYORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THEREGION. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH -8C DURING THE DAY THURSDAYON REASONABLY WELL-ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW...CONDITIONS WILL BECOMEINCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EASTOF THE LAKES. IN FACT WE MAY END UP SEEING A PROLONGED EVENT THATWILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12C.WHILE IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT HEADLINES ORACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DECENTLY FAVORABLECONDITIONS...WE COULD END UP SEEING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EASTOF THE LAKES. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE A LACK OF MID-LEVELMOISTURE...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THAT SHOULDLIMIT SNOWFALL RATES. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS MUCH OF A FACTORTO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE COMBINATION OF BETTERAVAILABILITY OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCHMAY END UP PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE TUG HILLPLATEAU.THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CLIPPER RIGHT AT THE END OF THEFORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MAY END UP BRINGING MOREWIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH MODELS EVEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OFAN ACTUAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVETROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGINGDEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OFEXPOSING THE GREAT LAKES TO AN UNIMPEDED FLOW OF AIR FROM THECANADIAN ARCTIC THAT COULD LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANDACTUALLY PUSH TEMPERATURES TO A PLACE THEY HAVE NOT BEEN IN A LONGTIME...BELOW AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 KBUF WFO shows a lot of excitement for the Tug Hill Plateau, westerly flow at the surface aligns with 850mb flow very well, I just wish once Cape Cod got to enjoy those type of snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 KBUF WFO shows a lot of excitement for the Tug Hill Plateau, westerly flow at the surface aligns with 850mb flow very well, I just wish once Cape Cod got to enjoy those type of snowfalls. Hop on the Weenie train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Buffaloweather, any analogs for the January 4th 2016 setup? OES potential for CHH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nevermind found the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 KBUF WFO shows a lot of excitement for the Tug Hill Plateau, westerly flow at the surface aligns with 850mb flow very well, I just wish once Cape Cod got to enjoy those type of snowfalls. I assume you have never experienced a lake effect blizzard.......as a winter weather enthusiast you owe it to yourself to check it out. I've been through several both on Tug and in the Buffalo area. It's both beautiful and at times downright frightening. If the forecast looks solid as we get later in the week you should come for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That was my plan this weekend it looks like really solid, starts New Year's Eve on Thursday night. 7pm EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You got a place me and my friend can stay, or would you prefer a hotel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Cleveland NWS mentions wind directions of 260-270 Degrees. 260 would target Hamburg/OP area, 270 would hit Eden/Boston area. 260-270 off ontario targets the tug. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS WITH LAKEEFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGINGIN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL GET GOINGLATE IN THE DAY AND WILL STICK WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.GIVEN A 260 TO 270 DEGREE FLOW THE SNOW WILL NOT SPREAD VERY FARINLAND ACROSS NE OHIO. SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS WELL.SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE THEPRECIP ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH SOME. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIRWILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND ANOTHER TROUGH. WILLSEE PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN AT THAT TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You got a place me and my friend can stay, or would you prefer a hotel? I don't live on the Tug Hill. Locate Turin on the map, find a hotel within 10 miles, you should be good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro is pretty much an all frozen event here for tonight..About an inch of precip in 9 hours and not much else..The question is exactly what type of frozen precip we see, hopefully more sleet then ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Vacationing in Redfield until Saturday afternoon. Had a dusting of snow last night. Hoping for a couple inches tonight then things get interesting Thursday - Saturday up here. Keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think someone ends up with some significant icing concerns tonight. This storm is perfect in terms of diurnal timing and the fact that the low is weakening might slow the push of warmer air a little more than models are predicting. Seems like a solid .3 to .5 inches of precip falling as either sleet or freezing rain which should be more than enough to start some tree and powerline issues especially when you factor in the potential gusty winds. I wouldnt be surprised to see an Eastern Lake Ontario county upgraded to Ice storm warnings. I also remember past events where the Niagara escarpment has held sub freezing air for several hours longer than surrounding areas. I'll be firing up the chainsaw and generator for a quick test run when I get home just to be safe. Should be an exciting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think someone ends up with some significant icing concerns tonight. This storm is perfect in terms of diurnal timing and the fact that the low is weakening might slow the push of warmer air a little more than models are predicting. Seems like a solid .3 to .5 inches of precip falling as either sleet or freezing rain which should be more than enough to start some tree and powerline issues especially when you factor in the potential gusty winds. I wouldnt be surprised to see an Eastern Lake Ontario county upgraded to Ice storm warnings. I also remember past events where the Niagara escarpment has held sub freezing air for several hours longer than surrounding areas. I'll be firing up the chainsaw and generator for a quick test run when I get home just to be safe. Should be an exciting night. I was thinking that it may be interesting since the colder & drier air is still filtering in... Steady at 25 in kroc. Would like to see those winds back to NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 The lake snow event later this week looks much better off of Ontario than Erie. Both should be warning level events because of the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pretty good snow falling right now, ground is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pretty good snow falling right now, ground is covered. Same here. Drove home from Ellicotville at 4. Freezing rain/sleet mix all the way up the 219 (not a fun drive). Moderate snow here for the last 30 minutes. If this keeps up, BUF might crack the 1 inch barrier before Jan 1. Now that would be an accomplishment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Maybe a half inch of snow here in South Buffalo. P type looks to have turned over to all sleet now... Anyone in WNY seeing freezing rain yet? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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