DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tonight might get quite interesting. I could definitely see this line of low topped convection being particularly nasty. A lot of very dynamic ingredients are in play. Also, consecutive Christmas eves with severe thunderstorms. How absolutely crazy is that?! A SUBTLE... YET IMPORTANT... FEATURE TO WATCH IS WHETHER A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... AS IT MAY POSE A LOCALIZED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS AREA... THIS STORM SYSTEM SETS UP A HIGH SHEAR-LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PARTICULARLY INTERESTING PART IS THAT TEMPS ARE DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... AND AS SUCH ANY NORMAL CONCERNS FOR BEING ILL-TIMED FOR OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING ARE THROWN OUT THE WINDOW. THE SHERB INDEX... WHICH IS A USEFUL DIAGNOSTIC INDEX IN HIGHLIGHTING WHERE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR... GOES WELL ABOVE 1 ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THE STRONGLY FORCED NATURE OF THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE... ALONG WITH A WELL-ALIGNED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT IF A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS IT WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT AT DUCTING SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS LINE DEVELOPING... INCLUDING THE NAMRR... WHICH GIVES SOME SUPPORT TO THE REASONING OUTLINED ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z models look pretty good for front end snow for next week's storm then LES later in the week a good possibility. Hope things continue to hold serve or get even snowier. Definitely looks better than a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z models look pretty good for front end snow for next week's storm then LES later in the week a good possibility. Hope things continue to hold serve or get even snowier. Definitely looks better than a few days ago. Good ol' lake cutter on the 18z goofus run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Someone kidnapped me and dropped me off in coastal Georgia. That's the only way I can explain just walking outside at 7PM and feeling the 60 degree muggy air. This sure as heck can't be Buffalo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Someone kidnapped me and dropped me off in coastal Georgia. That's the only way I can explain just walking outside at 7PM and feeling the 60 degree muggy air. This sure as heck can't be Buffalo... It really is incredible. KBUF broke the record today with a high of 61 and looks to break it even bigger tomorrow with highs near 65. Long range is looking better and better. Will post later, in the process of building a new PC. I'll post pics when I am done, its a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I just saw the latest GFS 00z run, and boy I wish I lived in the BUF southtowns, you guys are going to rock major league LES on the New Year, exactly New Year's Day. GFS shows a band moving into BUF downtown region on New Year's Day, delta Ts will be exceptional, and snowfall rates will be excessive with thunder snow possible. Instability will be threw the roof. Just once I wish an OES event can sustain itself through 12 hours, we can't catch an OES event here on Cape Cod in over 20 years. I mean one that dumps more than 4" on us. I remember I was in grade school one day and 6" of fluff fell on Harwich and Chatham, MA and cancelled school for that day, that was the last 4"+ OES event I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 I just saw the latest GFS 00z run, and boy I wish I lived in the BUF southtowns, you guys are going to rock major league LES on the New Year, exactly New Year's Day. GFS shows a band moving into BUF downtown region on New Year's Day, delta Ts will be exceptional, and snowfall rates will be excessive with thunder snow possible. Instability will be threw the roof. Just once I wish an OES event can sustain itself through 12 hours, we can't catch an OES event here on Cape Cod in over 20 years. I mean one that dumps more than 4" on us. I remember I was in grade school one day and 6" of fluff fell on Harwich and Chatham, MA and cancelled school for that day, that was the last 4"+ OES event I can remember. I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves but the first 2 weeks of January look great for LES. The lakes are just prime for some action, just need some arctic air and its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 At midnight Buffalo was 64 and Rochester 63. This is a record high for Dec 23rd AND Dec 24th for each. Today may get even warmer. The average high for today is 33.7 The average low is 21.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Still some near 50 degree lake temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ROC just surged to 66 degrees. It's feels downright balmy. Unbelievable stuff right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I just rode my bicycle to work wearing shorts. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 ROC just surged to 66 degrees. It's feels downright balmy. Unbelievable stuff right here. Insanity. #Buffalo coolest temp overnight: 59°F. That's warmer than 37 nights this summer (Jun - Aug 2015), or about 40% of the summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Record highs today.. Ice storm Tuesday?? LES - Thursday/Friday... Crazy weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Record highs today.. Ice storm Tuesday?? LES - Thursday/Friday... Crazy weather I hope so, we need some arctic air to cross over these record warm waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 ggem says what ice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm guessing subsequent panels don't looks so snowy. That low track never seems to work out for us in central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hit 67 on the backyard weather station this morning. Heard spring peepers last night. Looks like some significant changes coming but it's been enjoyable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm thinking a couple of inches of snow then a brief period of sleet followed by 35F fog and drizzle...........but hoping I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Euro also has secondary development off the coast of nj as the strong HP weakens the primary low..It's basically a warmer version of the canadian, nice hit for parts of central/eastern NY nonetheless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Euro still looks like a solid snow for Upstate NY. Still 4-5 days to go. It will keep jumping back and forth probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Gfs continues the colder trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Gfs continues the colder trend post-26143-1451016674_thumb.png GGEM even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 First week of January on the Ensembles. This is the first time I've seen this since October...Very strong agreement from the 2 primary models. The GFS got an upgrade this year and the Euro is still the superior model so a blend of their ensembles is the best thing to use going forward IMO. Pretty strong ridge building in the west, exactly what we need to get some cold air across these lakes. I wish it was a little farther west than it is, but much better look. GFS: EURO: GEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas to you all. Maybe Santa has brought a better pattern to us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro doesn't have much snow...maybe an inch or so? sleet to zr to rain (in BUF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Xmas all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry christmas everyone!! Gfs seems like the warmest model currently, still shows the potential for a nice front end thump.. Edit: gfs is no longer the warmest model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 From the Buffalo AFD... THE CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SCREAMING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM FOR THE FORECAST AREA... ESPECIALLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE CIPS ANALOGS OFF THE GFS GIVES A ROUGHLY 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF 1 OR MORE HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY... AND 60 TO 70% CHANCE OF 3 OR MORE HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN. THE MORE DISCONCERTING PART IS THAT THE TOP RATED ANALOG IS FROM JANUARY 31 2002... WHICH PROVED TO BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR WESTERN NY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL NEED TO WATCH EXTREMELY CLOSELY. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 January looking much better. .CLIMATE...WHEN CONSIDERING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...DECEMBER 2015 STANDS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME THE WARMEST DECEMBERON RECORD IN WESTERN NEW YORK. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THEMONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE MAY WELL TOP 40 DEGREES...WHICH PUTSTHE FOLLOWING RECORDS IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY...WARMEST MEAN TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR DECEMBER...CITY TEMP YEARBUFFALO.....37.6 (1923)ROCHESTER...39.0 (2006)LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...OUR LONG RUN OF RECORD WARMTH ISABOUT TO COME TO AN END WITH IMPORTANT CHANGES STARTING TO TAKESHAPE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERNTIER OF THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SNOW OPPORTUNITIESHERE IN WESTERN NY. THIS WILL INITIALLY BE DELIVERED BY LOCAL...RATHER SMALL SCALE CHANGES TO THE FLOW PATTERN DRIVEN BY SYNOPTICSYSTEMS.AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF JANUARY...THE LONGWAVEHEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ADJUST. THE PNA INDEX WILL FLIPTO POSITIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THEWEST COAST AND FORCE A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MEAN TO DEVELOPACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...DIRECTING MORE COLD AIR INTO THEGREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/WHICH HAS BEEN FAVORING VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE EASTERN US THISMONTH...WILL BEGIN TO ORBIT TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE PHASE FORCOLD IN THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.LASTLY...THE VERY STRONG STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX IS NOW UNDERPRESSURE FROM UPWARD PROPAGATING ROSSBY WAVES...WHICH ARE FORECASTTO WEAKEN THE POLAR VORTEX AND CAUSE AT LEAST SOME STRATOSPHERICWARMING OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. IT IS UNCLEAR YET WHETHERTHIS WILL BE A FULL FLEDGED SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT...BUT THE WEAKER STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOREHIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING TO DEVELOP AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIRST FEWWEEKS OF JANUARY...WHICH SUPPORTS COLD INTRUSIONS INTO THE GREATLAKES AND NORTHEAST.WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT A NOTABLE TURN TOWARDS MORETYPICAL COLD AND SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO JANUARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think the Tug Hill Plateau will see 50-100" of snow this upcoming New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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