wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Euro looks decent for this weekend, about 4" at kfzy on a 10-1 ratio..Pops have increased to likely from fri night through sat night.. Sitting at a toasty 62 degrees.. A look at the 12z gfs text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Latest AFD from BUF in regards to the weekend LES event. Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...latest medium range guidance continuing to suggest a period ofwinter weather as troughing and surge of colder air drops overheadThursday night through Saturday. By Friday morning 850 mbtemperatures drop to around -12c creating favorable lake effectparameters. Some very interesting model soundings during this timeframe when inversion levels are essentially lost...with a bullseyeof maximum Omega in prime dendritic growth zone.Strongly cyclonic flow and deep moisture will allow for lake effectprecipitation to develop Thursday night and continue through atleast Saturday night. Rain/snow showers on an initial west southwestflow will completely change over to all snow by Friday evening asthe boundary layer cools...although this cooling process will takeplace sooner over the higher elevations.The flow eventually turns more west northwest by Friday nightthrough Saturday night which will focus lake snows into the westernsouthern tier and Tug Hill regions. Still too far out to talk aboutaccumulations...but based on some of the model soundings andprojected deep moisture it certainly seems reasonable that we willsee a plowable snowfall in these areas...with significant snowfallcertainly not out of the question.Although it appears to be a certainty that we will be dealing withwintry weather to start the period...do not get used to it. Theactive Pacific regime will continue to dominate...keeping thepattern progressive and rapidly kicking out troughing by lateSunday. This will end the lake processes...with another extendedstretch of above normal temperatures likely to begin heading intonext week. There are indications even farther out that sharplywarmer weather will impact the area for the Christmas time periodwith almost no chance for a white Christmas for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This thread is funny... You can tell it's been a horrible winter thus far. In the NE threads there's a melt D almost every day haha. I think if this couple day cold threat coming up doesn't produce much the same may happen here lol! Forget it Jake, it's the Great Lakes. You spend enough Christmas' a$$ deep in snow with only the hope of a February let-up to keep you from a 3rd roof shoveling, and a year like this one is a nice break. Anyone who argues is just too damn young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hey Ayuud did you see the top analog for this weekend? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2015121412 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Nearly 80% of them are high impact LES events for Metro and points just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Select daily record high temperatures for December 14, 2015: Allentown: 68° (old record: 60°, 2001) Atlantic City: 65° (tied record: 65°, 1929) Baltimore: 71° (tied record: 71°, 1929) Bridgeport: 58° (tied record: 58°, 1991) Buffalo: 71° (old record: 64°, 1901) Islip: 58° (tied record: 58°, 1991) Newark: 64° (old record: 63°, 2001) Philadelphia: 70° (old record: 69°, 1881) Raleigh: 75° (old record: 74°, 1918) Rochester: 69° (old record: 62°, 1901) Washington, DC: 69° (old record: 67°, 2001) Watertown: 67° (old record: 65°, 1901) Wilmington, DE: 69° (old record: 63°, 2001) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 .CLIMATE...DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SMASHED TODAY AS UNSEASONABLEWARMTH REACHED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.BUFFALO...HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71 SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SETBACK IN 1901. THIS IS ALSO THE 2ND WARMEST DECEMBER TEMPERATUREEVER RECORDED. THE WARMEST DECEMBER TEMP WAS 74 IN 1982.ROCHESTER...HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 69 SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD OF 62SET BACK IN 1901. THERE HAVE BEEN 3 TIMES IN HISTORY THETEMPERATURE REACHED 70 IN DECEMBER AND SEVERAL YEARS WITH 69...MAKING TODAY A TIE FOR THE FOURTH WARMEST DECEMBER TEMPERATURE ONRECORD. THE WARMEST DECEMBER TEMP WAS 72 IN 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Can Nino crash this fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Nearly 80% of them are high impact LES events for Metro and points just south. it's Interesting that the NOV 2014 analog is showing up again, maybe mother nature is trying to give us heads up this time around? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 it's Interesting that the NOV 2014 analog is showing up again, maybe mother nature is trying to give us heads up this time around? lol.. There is no way that is happening, but it has the chance to be a decent event. It is still way out there though. We will have a better understanding by Weds Nights runs. I think we end our snowless streak though. KBUF only needs .1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Lake Erie is at 46 Degs and has tied the record for the date. If it can make it to Thurs at 46 it will be a new record for the day. Lake Eries record temps next week are in jeopardy as well with the averages being 42-44 and the big time warm-up coming. Let's break all the records! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 There is no way that is happening, but it has the chance to be a decent event. It is still way out there though. We will have a better understanding by Weds Nights runs. I think we end our snowless streak though. KBUF only needs .1. Expect the unexpected with LES my friend. if KBUF somehow manages to escape w/o any accumulating snow over the weekend, we could be extending the snowless streak all the way out to New years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Expect the unexpected with LES my friend. if KBUF somehow manages to escape w/o any accumulating snow over the weekend, we could be extending the snowless streak all the way out to New years! If that happens it will be a record that will never be broken. Or least for another 100 years. .1 is usually just so easy to get in Buffalo in Nov/Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 The GEM nailed the Nov. event and I value it quite decently with LES. Latest run looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 My bet is that the low tracks too far to the North and West- towards James Bay rather than Ungava- leaving us warm and relatively dry. It seems to be this years mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 My bet is that the low tracks too far to the North and West- towards James Bay rather than Ungava- leaving us warm and relatively dry. It seems to be this years mode. I'd put my money on the same scenario. Hope thats wrong but my gut tells me something will prohibit this from being too significant of a lake effect event (I.e. Less than 12 inches off Erie and less than 18 inches off Ontario) which this year would seem like a Snowvember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 My bet is that the low tracks too far to the North and West- towards James Bay rather than Ungava- leaving us warm and relatively dry. It seems to be this years mode. Buffalo wants in near James Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Buffalo wants in near James Bay? I'm not sure I understand either - synoptic conditions that favor LES at Buffalo include a 500 hPa low at James Bay, right? EDIT: or maybe Scott was saying that he would expect the low to track towards Ungava instead of James Bay? Although Ungava is not NW of James Bay. So I'm just not getting it. My understanding is if the synoptic conditions for LES depend upon a low tracking N of the lakes, so the further S the low from James Bay, the more southerly and southeasterly the flow off the Lake Erie. So a James Bay low tends to be more supportive of Metro snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Might me melting the ice caps next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Top 15 analogs for this weekend based on the 12z runs. Definitely a ski country hardest hit event, but we all get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=EC&rundt=2015121512 For those who want to bookmark this website. It's awesome as it correlates the atmospheric conditions of top 15 events within 120 hours to determine in the past what happened given those conditions. The extended analogs beyond 120 hours are there as well up to 14 days, but the accuracy goes down dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Certainly the potential for some decent LES- at this point Euro/GFS keep it south of BUF for the most part, and along/south of the Tug Hill off Ontario. Of course, I won't be there for any of it, but it should be interesting to see if this LES potential falls apart just like the last one we had in November. Regardless, after this brief cooldown the roast of December will continue, and lake temps should still be running well above normal. Just waiting for that February '07 repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Might me melting the ice caps next week. Poor Judah Cohen is going to have a heart attack lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 My understanding is if the synoptic conditions for LES depend upon a low tracking N of the lakes, so the further S the low from James Bay, the more southerly and southeasterly the flow off the Lake Erie. So a James Bay low tends to be more supportive of Metro snows. Lots of variables.... Given the current conditions and projected strength of the Low (and its potential transfer over to the Atlantic); over the Soo and up to James won't work. Rather see one slide across Superior, just above Huron, and veeeerrrrry slowly curve it's way up to Ungava. I just don't see enough 'cold' in this one to milk out a Low that far North. Ontario can be quite different from Erie, though. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Lake Erie is 7 degrees above normal for the date. Still has a large area of 50 deg temps on Dec. 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON CHRISTMAS DAY WAS 64 DEGREES IN 1982. Might have a chance at beating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 CHRISTMAS DAY : PERIOD OF RECORD 132 YEARS : 1873-2007 TEMPERATURE DATA HIGHEST 64 DEGREES IN 1982 LOWEST -10 DEGREES IN 1980 LOWEST MAXIMUM 7 DEGREES IN 1983 HIGHEST MINIMUM 55 DEGREES IN 1982 WARMEST CHRISTMAS DAY 1982...HIGH 64 LOW 55 MEAN 60 COLDEST CHRISTMAS DAY 1980...HIGH 16 LOW -10 MEAN 3 AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE 33.6 DEGREES AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE 22.0 DEGREES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Pretty quiet around here now... Think the NWS will issue a watch later today for areas south of Buffalo and near the Tug Hill. Think Ontario has a better chance of producing anything truly significant. Doesn't really matter how much falls cause it will most certainly be gone by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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