BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 ...RECORD SHATTERING WARMTH EXPECTED MONDAY...NOT ONLY WILL MONDAY BE A DAY OF RECORD SHATTERING WARMTH BUT ITLIKELY BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS TO EVER OCCUR DURING THEMETEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DECEMBER-FEBRUARY) SEASON FOR BUFFALO ANDROCHESTER.RECORD HIGHS AT BUFFALO 63F/1901 ... ROCHESTER 62F/1901 ... ANDWATERTOWN 60F/1975 WILL EASILY BE BROKEN AND LIKELY BY 5 DEGREES ORMORE.TO PUT MONDAY FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70F AT BUFFALO ANDROCHESTER IN PERSPECTIVE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER TO OCCURDURING METEOROLOGICAL WINTER FOR BUFFALO IS 74F (12/3/1982) ANDROCHESTER IS ALSO 74F (1/25/1950).SINCE 1871...ONLY 7 TIMES DURING THE WINTER SEASON HAS A 70 DEGREEOR WARMER TEMPERATURE BEEN RECORDED AT BUFFALO AND ONLY 8 TIMES ATROCHESTER.BUFFALO...(74 / 12/3/1982 ... 72 / 1/25/1950 ... 71 / 2/26/2000 ...70 / 12/4/1941 ... 70 / 1/22/1906 ... 70 / 1/26/1950 ... 70 /2/21/1997)ROCHESTER...(74 / 1/25/1950 ... 73 / 2/21/1997 ... 72 / 12/3/1982... 71 / 1/21/1906 ... 70 / 12/4/2012 ... 70 / 12/31/1875 ... 70 /2/11/1932 ... 70 / 2/24/1906) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It sure was frustrating being stuck in the 40s today while it was so warm just to our south. Looking forward to getting a taste of that tomorrow. Also looking forward to some winter next weekend, even though it will be brief. Would think Buffalo is probably going to end their snow-less streak. I'll be looking to add to my impressive seasonal total of 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 It sure was frustrating being stuck in the 40s today while it was so warm just to our south. Looking forward to getting a taste of that tomorrow. Also looking forward to some winter next weekend, even though it will be brief. Would think Buffalo is probably going to end their snow-less streak. I'll be looking to add to my impressive seasonal total of 2". Lake Effect snow warnings Fri/Sat. Calling it, only because someone on here told me its a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Lake Effect snow warnings Fri/Sat. Calling it, only because someone on here told me its a possibility. Definitely but it looks like a mainly southern tier event, if BUF does indeed escape the upcoming LES we could extend the snowless streak all the way out to New years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Definitely but it looks like a mainly southern tier event, if BUF does indeed escape the upcoming LES we could extend the snowless streak all the way out to New years! I think wind direction looks good for meandering bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This is INSANE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 This is INSANE! I haven't figured out how to use that website yet. Do you need to pay? 70 with 62 dews, maybe some t-storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 I think people forget how warm last x-mas was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Temp has been rising all evening, up to 56 (high for the day). Can't wait to see what it is in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I haven't figured out how to use that website yet. Do you need to pay? 70 with 62 dews, maybe some t-storms! It should be free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I think people forget how warm last x-mas was. Just checked the stats for that day and the high was only 57F, that setup on the 0z GFS screams easy 65F+ readings around these parts with the southerly downslope winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Just checked the stats for that day and the high was only 57F, that setup on the 0z GFS screams easy 65F+ readings around these parts with the southerly downslope winds! Today had a high of 53 at KBUF, it was in the 60s here today. Nevermind hit 56 before midnight. But point stands was much cooler at KBUF than south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Today had a high of 53 at KBUF, it was in the 60s here today. Nevermind hit 56 before midnight. But point stands was much cooler at KBUF than south today. True, at least we got something to look forward to for next weekend, i just checked the 0z gfs bufkit data and it has the equilibrium reaching 15KFT on Friday when those winds are still WSW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 True, at least we got something to look forward to for next weekend, i just checked the 0z gfs bufkit data and it has the equilibrium reaching 15KFT on Friday when those winds are still WSW.. Can't wait to see a real snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This thread is funny... You can tell it's been a horrible winter thus far. In the NE threads there's a melt D almost every day haha. I think if this couple day cold threat coming up doesn't produce much the same may happen here lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 This thread is funny... You can tell it's been a horrible winter thus far. In the NE threads there's a melt D almost every day haha. I think if this couple day cold threat coming up doesn't produce much the same may happen here lol! This is the best thread in the last 6 months, it's actually active. I have off today and going disc golfing at the ridge with some friends. It's beautiful outside, you just have to enjoy the outdoors. Last night I went for a 4 mile run at 9 pm on Dec 13th, how rare is that! No one is going to have a melt down lol...Especially after the last 2 years here. I mean there was no meltdown in 11-12/12-13. 30-60" of snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE INTHE WAY OF RECOVERY ON FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -10C. WITHLAKE TEMPS STILL AROUND +7 TO +9C...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILLINCREASE ENOUGH ON WESTERLY FLOW TO GENERATE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THATSHOULD CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY TO SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THEBOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING...LAKEPARAMETERS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVELTROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH SFC-850 DELTA-T VALUESRUNNING IN THE 15-20C RANGE AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMBING INEXCESS OF 15KFT FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A DECENT SUPPLY OFSYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS SOME AREAS. WHILE INITIAL FLOW OF250 DEGREES MAY BRIEFLY BRING MEASURABLE SNOW INTO BUFFALO LATEFRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTSTHAT STEERING FLOW WILL RAPIDLY SETTLE OUT AROUND 270DEGREES...WITH THE MAIN EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERNSOUTHERN TIER AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...WHEREAN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY MAY FURTHERENHANCE SNOWFALL.LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTOSATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLEARS OUT AND IS REPLACED BYROBUST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TOTHE SNOW AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED COLD SNAP SUNDAY ASSOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WARMER AIR OUR WAY AS WE MOVE INTOTHE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Indices are about to go off the charts. +AO +NAO -PNA. We want the exact opposite for cold in the northeast. We might see 70s again around x-mas with these charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 68 at airport already. Should hit 70+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Toasty out there now! Pushing 70 with light winds and sun. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 You guys ready for 70s in mid December? https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/670601847837745152/photo/1 Unit of measure on that map is degrees F, so peak at +8F to +15F for Great Lakes and all but Northern Ontario. Around Buffalo that translates to upper 40s to mid 50s. Still totally ridiculous but not a crazy warm outlier. Hopeless for cold though. Looks like it's gonna be persistence this winter, until it's not. Yeah I know. I was just using some hyperbole to show just how warm it has the potential to be in mid Dec. Nearly every indice is pointing to near record warmth for a period of time. The record highs at KBUF from the 9-13th won't be to hard to beat. Dec. 1st-8th has some real warm records, ironic enough 4 of those record highs came from the other record El Nino in 1982. The coorelation is strong between a record El Nino and a really warm December. Dec 9th: 62 Dec 10th: 62 Dec.11th: 61 Dec.12th: 63 Dec.13th: 62 As much as I still can't believe that we're gonna run nearly 40F above average for the date, it's gonna happen! What is that, +2.3 SD above the mean? Good call! I have to get used to the fact that this winter is not going to track anywhere CLOSE to the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The records falling this month will rival if not exceed the extreme cold from February. Amazing to have 2 such extreme months on opposite sides of the spectrum in one calendar year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 68 and rising...how high can it go? As for Christmas...while I would obviously prefer snow, if it ain't gonna snow I'd rather have 60s or 70s as opposed to 35 and rain, or something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Who would have thought it would be warmer in Buffalo,NY than in New Orleans, Houston, and Tallahasee on December 14th. Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 not making this **** up, it's 74F at the west side of buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 So far peaked at 71 here, some clouds have moved in and that's dropped the temps a couple of degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 So far peaked at 71 here, some clouds have moved in and that's dropped the temps a couple of degrees. That Lyndoville PWS station was reporting 78F at 1pm! it's now down to 73F. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNYLYNDO7#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This thread is funny... You can tell it's been a horrible winter thus far. In the NE threads there's a melt D almost every day haha. I think if this couple day cold threat coming up doesn't produce much the same may happen here lol! Nope no panic here, we all know we need just one nice moist cold air shot and we are back in business unlike the east coast which in their case they want million things to align just so they can get something going lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.