BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Today and yesterday mark the anniversary of the Oct 12-13th 2006 Lake Effect Storm. One of my favorites of all time living in Cheektowaga/Amherst border. I remember it like yesterday as me and my family went for a walk on the 12th that night. Flashes of lightning and thunder with powerflashes nearly every minute. It felt like an apocalyptic walk that evening. We lost power for 13 days in total. Luckily my parents had a generator in which we hot wired directly to the circuit breaker. We also had a fire place where we all slept together next to for those 2 weeks. Buffalo in total lost I believe 70% of its trees. The snow was so heavy as QPF ratios were 1:6 to 1:12 during the event. The trees were still in full bloom which is the reason there was such a great loss of power. BUF NWS has a nice write-up. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html In the end, upwards of 400,000 customers were without power, some for as much as two weeks after the storm. Damage estimates from late December 2006 were in the $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 range. Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 24" (Depew, Alden) Duration: 16 hours +/- Prime Feature: Dramatic crippling out of season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters.Words cannot do justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. It was the most unique in regards to destruction of trees and power outages, directly because of its out of season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power, some for as long as a week, and tree damage was the worst in memory, especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area.The extreme parameters of the event were noted all week and even mentioned six days ahead in forecast discussions. The depth of cold air was almost unprecedented for so early in the season and Lake Erie was a mild 62 degrees, three degrees above normal for October 12. Instability levels were dramatic with 850 mb to surface delta t's of 24C or so, inversion levels were simply off the chart at 25k feet with omega and Cape values unprecedented for a lake effect event. The only question, and a big one, was whether the boundary layer could be cold enough to maintain snow with a flow off a 62 degree lake. It was initially assumed that there would just enough moderation for the bulk of this forecasted intense lake effect storm to fall as rain, with perhaps some graupel or wet snow inland, but by Thursday morning (12th) it was becoming marginal, and a Warning was issued early Thursday afternoon for 1-6" of wet snow, specifically because of the fact that most trees were still in full leaf, and the threat of serious damage and associated power outages.The event began with lake effect rain during Thursday morning and midday, and enough cold air became entrained to change over the precipitation to wet snow in the Buffalo area by 3 pm. Still, little accumulation resulted for a few hours, but by 8-9 pm, reports of trees falling and power outages suddenly increased rapidly after 2-3" of snow, which was very wet and weighed down the trees. Conditions only worsened overnight with near constant thunder and lightning for a good 12 hours. Cloud tops reached an incredible 25-30 thousand feet, about double we have previously observed in the worst events, this was directly attributed to the phenomenal uplift over the 62 degree lake.The heaviest snowband set up across the North Towns Thursday evening, then drifted south to the Southtowns around midnight, then lifted slightly to the city and eastern suburbs in the wee hours before lifting north across the Northtowns again around daybreak and eventually to Niagara county Friday (13th) morning where it weakened and faded to rain as the dynamic cooling process faded and allowed the boundary layer to moderate.It was apparent that the associated uplift and dynamic cooling was so strong that it overcame any attempt of boundary layer warming from the lake. There even may have been cooling near its edge because of this dynamic cooling as evident by lowering dew points at Cleveland, Erie and Dunkirk early in the event, perhaps a sign of air advecting into the lakeband from the land.Even though plenty of damage resulted already in the first few inches, total snowfall in this event was simply unbelievable. 5 to 8 inches fell in the first phase of the event between 3 pm and midnight, but the snow water equivalent (swe) ratio was around 6:1 or so, hence the terrific damage to trees and powerlines. The second phase featured slightly drier snow, maybe 12:1 but it piled up another foot in heaviest area, in just 4 hours or so. The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6" in 1909, only 4 falls of 2" or more in 100 years in October), but was the 7th greatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo!The crippling snows extended well across Genesee and Orleans counties, and pushed into extreme southern Niagara county, but there was a sharp cutoff to any damage, which ran along a line from Whitehaven Road on Grand Island to Wheatfield to Medina on the north, Leroy and Bergen on the east, and East Aurora and southern Hamburg on the south. A Few Pictures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 A few pictures from the ridge of the changing colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 First snow call from KBUF on the year. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREATLAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEAFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIG QUESTION FORTHE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND. THEGFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE GLOBAL SUITES...TAKING 850MBTEMPS DOWN TO -7 TO -8C ON SATURDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 12ZECMWF IS ALSO STARTING TO TREND COLDER...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO-6C ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THESEFACTORS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINFRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWERELEVATIONS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LIMITED BY THE SHALLOW NATUREOF THE MOISTURE...HOWEVER IT MUST BE NOTED THAT WE ARE STILL VERYFAR OUT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE CALLS ON ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY. Saturday A chance of rain showers before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Should be an interesting start to Lake effect season this weekend. Lake surface temperatures are still running around 12C, so any 850mb temperatures below -7C or so would produce some pretty good instability. Obviously surface temperatures around here aren't going to support snow (other than perhaps some of the higher elevations), but we'll probably see some flakes/graupel mixed in at times. After this weekend we probably "roast" again but that's another story! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Should be an interesting start to Lake effect season this weekend. Lake surface temperatures are still running around 12C, so any 850mb temperatures below -7C or so would produce some pretty good instability. Obviously surface temperatures around here aren't going to support snow (other than perhaps some of the higher elevations), but we'll probably see some flakes/graupel mixed in at times. After this weekend we probably "roast" again but that's another story! Yeah, it's a short hit of cold air lasting a few days. It gets warm again that for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Buffalos average high and lows vary a lot during this month. Oct.1st: HIGH: 64.8 LOW: 47.6 Oct. 31st: HIGH: 53.6LOW: 38.4 Average Weather Buffalo, NY - October Average high temperature: 59°F Average low temperature: 42.7°F A Average temperature: 50.8°F Average Precipitation: 3.5 inch Average snowfall: 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 This seems like a prime weekend for waterspouts on the great lakes. I'm planning to drive along the Lake Ontario parkway at points this weekend if conditions seems favorable. Should be a fun little winter preview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'm getting interested in this weekends setup. If areas from Rochester to especially Syracuse were to see a notable early season event, it would be hard to beat these parameters! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 First graupel of the season around buf, work in hamburg to be specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 First graupel of the season around buf, work in hamburg to be specific. Yeah, we heard it on the roof at work, went to check it out and was coming down hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 Picture of the graupel earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Heard from a few friends around campus that we had some small hail/graupel with the lake band that brushed the area earlier tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The grass is whitened here at 1650 feet in Otsego County. Intermittent snow showers blowing through, 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The grass is whitened here at 1650 feet in Otsego County. Intermittent snow showers blowing through, 34F. Any pictures? I love that area. My parents born and raised in Oneonta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Any pictures? I love that area. My parents born and raised in Oneonta. Sorry I didn't catch any. We had white grass and the patio covered. Drove down off our hill, a descent of about 400 feet vertical, wet ground with no snow on it. Now the sun is out, and it's up to 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Sorry I didn't catch any. We had white grass and the patio covered. Drove down off our hill, a descent of about 400 feet vertical, wet ground with no snow on it. Now the sun is out, and it's up to 40F. First frozen winter precip, for Phoenix today as well. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 You can see this lake band from the observation deck in our science building here. Looks like some snow is actually falling over the lake with that more intense band over Eastern Oswego county right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 Grats on the snow fellas! The Leafs are changing quickly. Letchworth state park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 No snow on the Tug- Ontario's still too warm to snow on it's east flank. Radio was reporting snow on the northern tier, though. Nothing between there and the North Pole but a barbed wire fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 No snow on the Tug- Ontario's still too warm to snow on it's east flank. Radio was reporting snow on the northern tier, though. Nothing between there and the North Pole but a barbed wire fence. That's the truth. Is that avatar a pic of your dog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Made it down to 30° overnight, first car topper of the season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Nice early season Snowfall up north.. * LOCATIONS ...CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY FROM MEXICO TO PARISH AND CONSTANTIA. * TIMING ...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS ...ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES TODAY WILL BRING TOTALS INTO THE 7 TO 9 INCH RANGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. * VISIBILITIES ...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS ...A LOCALIZED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE SLUSHY AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY ...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 NEAR PARISH. THE WEIGHT OF THE WET SNOW ON TREES MAY RESULT IN A FEW TREE LIMBS COMING DOWN AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. Mexico NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 We've seen flakes here consistently for the past few hours. The real band over Mexico has to be extremely impressive. Surface temps even along the lakeshore here are still roughly 34-35F so I'd imagine at least someone between Mexico has seen at least a half foot of snow. That band seriously hasn't moved since I went to sleep at like 3AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Wow, grats to them such a great band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 8" in Mexico, 6" in Parish/Hastings area. Looks like the band has pivoted a little further south and will probably weaken until it dies out completely later. While I haven't seen more than a few snow showers here, the view of the band is actually extremely impressive. Tops have to be pushing at least several thousand feet and it's probably higher than that in places I don't have a direct view of. I'm still surprised a little bit of how well organized and stationary this band was. The band sat over Mexico/New Haven for almost the entirety of the night, and even with a generally poor fetch, extremely favorable parameters and good convergence really made this event pretty significant for an event in the middle of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Looks like Orchard Park is getting some lake effect streamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/ReedTimmerTVN/videos/10153695499074169/ Heavy snow in Oswego earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 That's the truth. Is that avatar a pic of your dog? No, but it's a dead ringer- he's a real snowpuppy, never happier than when the snowbanks let him sit higher than the cars... He's a purebred Keeshond, but an awful lot of the dogs around here seem to have that double coated Spitz blood in them. It's a sound adaptation for our climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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