IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Temperatures approaching the upper 70's to possibly 80 degrees tomorrow along with an increasingly moist flow ahead of an approaching cold front will cause a surge of surface based instability by tomorrow afternoon. The 18z NAM has around 1500 J/KG while 12z ECMWF has us barely cracking 500 J/KG. One of the biggest limiting factors will be any clouds or showers tomorrow morning which would limit destabilization. Although the greatest shear looks to be a bit further North, we should still have about 30-40kts to work with a modestly unstable atmosphere. Accordingly, SPC has placed Western areas in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on the latest day 2 outlook. This may need to be upgraded tomorrow depending on cloudiness. Currently, conditions are nearly overcast at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Lapse rates = meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Watch out for a severe line of showers and gusts to 30mph. Scary stuff really. Sorry boys this one isn't for us. (Or anyone really) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 The NAM shows a few marginal supercells/bowing segments firing tomorrow afternoon, mainly south and southwest of NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Give me a rumble of thunder and I'll call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Give me a rumble of thunder and I'll call it a win. I doubt there is much in the way of thunder. More of you're run of the mill gusty squall line we often see in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 NYC and metro under slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 What is the HRRR showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 What is the HRRR showing? Low topped squall line look around 22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Overcast. Cell in NE Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 gfs and nam show barely any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 gfs and nam show barely any rain. Clouds preventing instability. Only 65 at KNYC. Barely above the low temp. 80 doesn't seem to be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Clouds preventing instability. Only 65 at KNYC. Barely above the low temp. 80 doesn't seem to be happening. sunny and semi humid in the NW. Temp 63F Radar looks juicy in the north near canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Clouds preventing instability. Only 65 at KNYC. Barely above the low temp. 80 doesn't seem to be happening. Up to 70. KEWR up to 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Had a shower earlier, looks like another will cross over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Small pop up shower for Bergen County and entering parts of Manhattan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 HRRR consistently showing some bowing stucture that could be result in some damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The line in PA is now showing decent lightning and most models have that line holding to Long Island. Rgem has consistently shown decent rain/storms for our area, so chances are that this afternoon/evening will be fairly active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The line in PA is now showing decent lightning and most models have that line holding to Long Island. Rgem has consistently shown decent rain/storms for our area, so chances are that this afternoon/evening will be fairly active. Severe warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Severe warning now. Perhaps our best widespread storm day today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Severe thunderstorm watch in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Severe thunderstorm watch just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 2 more severe warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 One thing about thunderstorms this time of year and in late Winter, the radar can sometimes be deceiving because the convection is shallower. The warnings are for 60+ MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Heading thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 very weak sup going through manhattan. But its rotating weakly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Tornado warning for the NW Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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