Amped Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 NOUS41 KWBC 031408 PNSWSH Technical Implementation Notice 15-43 National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC 1010 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2015 To: Subscribers: -Family of Services -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees From: Timothy McClung Chief Operating Officer NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration Subject: Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Changes Effective October 13, 2015 On or about Tuesday, October 13, 2015, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Protection's (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) will be updated. The upgrade in the GEFS production suite includes: 1. Running the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model with Semi-Lagrangian dynamic scheme and improved physics scheme, GSM v12.1.0, to replace the currently used GFS v9.1.0. 2. Increasing the horizontal resolution from T254 (about 55km) to TL574 (about 33km) for the first 192 hours (8 days) of model integration, and from T190 (about 70km)to TL382 (about 55km) between 192 hours and 384 hours of model integration. 3. Increasing vertical resolution from 42 levels to 64 levels for 0-384 hours (0-16 days) forecasts. 4. Modifying the ensemble initialization method by replacing the Bred Vector with Ensemble Transform and Rescaling (BV-ETR) scheme with Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) scheme. The 6-hour forecasts of the 80 EnKF ensemble members of the Hybrid Data Assimilation system, from the previous cycle, are used to initialize the ensemble perturbations. 5. Improving the Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation (STTP) scheme by (1) turning off perturbations in the surface pressure, (2) increasing the perturbation amplitude of other model state variables around the time of model truncation (192 hours), and (3) adjusting its parameters to match the Semi-Lagrangian scheme, the increased model resolution and improved model physics. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin15-43gefs.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin15-43gefs.htm Hopefully this helps eliminate phantom cyclones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 Hopefully this helps eliminate phantom cyclones Probably not, since they also develop on the operational around day10. It's still a heck of a lot better than the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 good info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Someone explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old. How big of an upgrade is this? Anything noticeable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Postponed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Postponed. RFC #1370 – GEFS v11.0.3 – Major GEFS upgrade. See the TIN at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin15-43gefsaab.htmfor specifics. This was scheduled for an October 14 implementation and was conditionally approved at the October 8 NCO CCB, but it was not approved by the NCEP Director at the October 9 briefing, so it is on hold until a future date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 RFC #1370 – GEFS v11.0.3 – Major GEFS upgrade. See the TIN at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin15-43gefsaab.htmfor specifics. This was scheduled for an October 14 implementation and was conditionally approved at the October 8 NCO CCB, but it was not approved by the NCEP Director at the October 9 briefing, so it is on hold until a future date. Somebody is subscribed to the NCO RFC Memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 WOW this is just ......sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 WOW this is just ......sad What is just sad? The fact that they put the brakes on an implementation after collecting input from the service centers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 There was another scheduled update with the SREFS that isn't implemented yet. I've noticed most upgrades get pushed back but they happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 What is just sad? The fact that they put the brakes on an implementation after collecting input from the service centers? do you know when the upgrade will be coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 There was another scheduled update with the SREFS that isn't implemented yet. I've noticed most upgrades get pushed back but they happen eventually. SREF update is happening 10/21 now, GEFS upgrade still on hold: RFC #1309 – SREF v7.0.4 – Major upgrade of the SREF, including increasing the total members from 21 to 26, increase vertical levels, and other changes. See the TIN at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin15-32srefaad.htmfor specifics .The SREF has now been approved for implementation by the NCEP Director. It will be implemented on October 21, effective with the 1500Z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Looks like this is going to finally happen in early to mid December: RFC #1370 – GEFS v11.0.3 – Major GEFS upgrade. See the TIN at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin15-43gefsaab.htm for specifics. This was scheduled for an October 14 implementation and was conditionally approved at the October 8 NCO CCB, but it was not approved by the NCEP Director at the October 9 briefing. The NCEP Director was rebriefed on November 12 and approved this implementation moving forward. An implementation date for the GEFS should be determined the week of November 16 and implementation should occur in early-mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago "NCO & EMC are pleased to announce that the GEFS version 11 upgrade will be implemented on Wednesday December 2nd with the 12Z model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago "NCO & EMC are pleased to announce that the GEFS version 11 upgrade will be implemented on Wednesday December 2nd with the 12Z model cycle. Thanks Ryan!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS ENS PAR has been kicking ass much better and close to euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS ENS PAR has been kicking ass much better and close to euro ens Definitely. The model pages right here at American Weather provided fast and excellent products and access to the parallel runs too! In my humble opinion they really did an outstanding job on having those available. Very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 It's in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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