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First snow date guesses here

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

In your backyard, when will you receive your:  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. First 1"+ of snow?

    • Prior to Dec. 1
      25
    • Between Dec. 1-15
      18
    • Between Dec. 16-31
      8
    • Between Jan 1 and Jan 15
      12
    • Between Jan 16 and Jan 31
      2
    • Nver--it only snows in Lunenburg.
      1

  2. 2. First 4"+ storm

    • Prior to Dec 1
      5
    • Dec 1 - 15
      20
    • 12/16 - 12/31
      21
    • 1/1 - 1/15
      7
    • 1/16 - 1/31
      12
    • Never. It only snows in Lunenburg
      1

  3. 3. First 8" plus

    • Prior to 12/1
      1
    • 12/1 to 12/15
      3
    • 12/16-12/31
      18
    • 1/1 - 1/15
      19
    • 1/16 - 1/31
      18
    • Never. It only snows in Lunenburg
      7

  4. 4. First 12"+

    • Prior to Dec 1
      0
    • 12/1 - 12/15
      2
    • 12/16 - 12/31
      6
    • 1/1 - 1/15
      10
    • 1/16 - 1/31
      15
    • After 1/31
      20
    • Never. It will only snow in Lunenburg.
      13

  5. 5. How many snow days will your local public school have?


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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...
J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Well, 25 folks (including me) missed on the first inch.

 

Five folks are within 2 weeks of missing their first four-inch calls.

 

When I initially saw this thread and entered my responses, I just went off the cuff base on climatological feel for my site, but I realize now that I could actually take a more analytical, J.Spin-type of approach since I’ve got the data for that.

 

I haven’t run the numbers for first 1” storm, but given that the earliest option was “Prior to Dec 1”, I think that was a no brainer.  That did work out correctly for this season though anyway, with that milestone being met back in mid-October.

 

For the first 4” storm, I threw out Dec 1-15 as my quick guess, but I went to the actual data today to see if that was the logical choice.  This is just using the averages I’ve got and doesn’t take into account any sort of long-range forecasts, but as we know, long-range forecasts aren’t going to be picking out individual storms anyway.  Here are the numbers:

 

Data for date of first 4” snowstorm - site VT-WS-19

 

n                      9

Mean                28-Nov

Median             27-Nov

Mode                23-Nov

S.D.                 6.4 days

Earliest             22-Nov

Latest               9-Dec

 

Clearly there are limitations to using such a small data set, but going with the available data, the chances of getting that first 4” storm are:

 

68.0% by Dec 1

99.4% by Dec 15

99.99997% by Dec 31

 

The approach I took with guessing (and the above analysis) was simply based on the final date in each option, not fitting into the given window, so that makes it a bit easier to be correct.  With data in hand, one’s choices really come down to how risky (or perhaps unrealistic) they want to be.  Based on the data, I think I’d probably make the same choice again for that first 4” storm.  As they say, “I like those odds!”  In actuality, those odds of a 4” snowstorm by Dec 15 and 31 seem ridiculously high to me at first glance, and presumably they’re in part due to the small data set, but the data are the data.  As things stand, it’s going to take a lot of late snowfalls to really budge those numbers.  Whenever the snow falls, it should be fun to see what this year’s events do to the data set.

 

I’ll run the 1”, 8”, and 12” storm numbers when I get a chance to see how my guesses compare to what the data say.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

When I initially saw this thread and entered my responses, I just went off the cuff base on climatological feel for my site, but I realize now that I could actually take a more analytical, J.Spin-type of approach since I’ve got the data for that.

 

I haven’t run the numbers for first 1” storm, but given that the earliest option was “Prior to Dec 1”, I think that was a no brainer.  That did work out correctly for this season though anyway, with that milestone being met back in mid-October.

 

For the first 4” storm, I threw out Dec 1-15 as my quick guess, but I went to the actual data today to see if that was the logical choice.  This is just using the averages I’ve got and doesn’t take into account any sort of long-range forecasts, but as we know, long-range forecasts aren’t going to be picking out individual storms anyway.  Here are the numbers:

 

Data for date of first 4” snowstorm - site VT-WS-19

 

n                      9

Mean                28-Nov

Median             27-Nov

Mode                23-Nov

S.D.                 6.4 days

Earliest             22-Nov

Latest               9-Dec

 

Clearly there are limitations to using such a small data set, but going with the available data, the chances of getting that first 4” storm are:

 

68.0% by Dec 1

99.4% by Dec 15

99.99997% by Dec 31

 

The approach I took with guessing (and the above analysis) was simply based on the final date in each option, not fitting into the given window, so that makes it a bit easier to be correct.  With data in hand, one’s choices really come down to how risky (or perhaps unrealistic) they want to be.  Based on the data, I think I’d probably make the same choice again for that first 4” storm.  As they say, “I like those odds!”  In actuality, those odds of a 4” snowstorm by Dec 15 and 31 seem ridiculously high to me at first glance, and presumably they’re in part due to the small data set, but the data are the data.  As things stand, it’s going to take a lot of late snowfalls to really budge those numbers.  Whenever the snow falls, it should be fun to see what this year’s events do to the data set.

 

I’ll run the 1”, 8”, and 12” storm numbers when I get a chance to see how my guesses compare to what the data say.

 

Classic J.Spin post... love the data and analysis. 

 

Be interesting to see when the first 4"+ event occurs.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

Simply put, I believe the Arctic Oscillation will tank towards negative values and move into the United States sometime around December 25th through the month of January.  I think after New Years Day we will see values plummet and reach into the US.  The AO will bury the US in snow.  Simply put the combo of the -AO and +PNA will lead to real below normal temperatures and heavy snow chances.

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Tolland Death Band

Tolland Death Band

Posted
Posted

Simply put, I believe the Arctic Oscillation will tank towards negative values and move into the United States sometime around December 25th through the month of January. I think after New Years Day we will see values plummet and reach into the US. The AO will bury the US in snow. Simply put the combo of the -AO and +PNA will lead to real below normal temperatures and heavy snow chances.

Ushered in with a nasty anafrontal whiteout on Xmas. Sign me up

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  • 2 weeks later...
J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Classic J.Spin post... love the data and analysis.

 

Be interesting to see when the first 4"+ event occurs.

 

We’re past the 15th of December and there hasn’t been a 4”+ event at our site yet, which puts this season’s occurrence later than the threshold date I selected in the survey.  We actually haven’t even reached 4” of snow on the season yet, although season snowfall is currently close to that mark at 3.7”, so that could happen in the next few days based on the forecast.  Whenever we do get a 4”+ event, it will be the latest occurrence in my records – we’re now a week past the previous latest date of 12/9/2009.  This will definitely change the calculated probabilities for that first event to something a bit more reasonable as well.

 

A 4”+ event will of course be achieved before an 8”+ event, even if they’re the same storm, but we’re well into the territory for occurrence of the first 8”+ event, so I’ll mention some of the data for that parameter.  We’re already past the mean date for first 8”+ storm at our site, which is December 10th, but the latest occurrence for an 8”+ storm is January 20th, 2007, so there’s quite a while to go before there’s a chance to break that record.  That’s also the date of the latest 12”+ storm in my records.  Going with my gut on the climatology here, I actually chose the window ending on January 31st for both the 8”+ and 12”+ estimates.  Now that I’ve seen that data, guessing that time window was probably on the conservative side since it even exceeds the latest date I’ve got in my records, but if one wanted to go conservative using that latest date, it’s a solid choice.

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  • 2 weeks later...
J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

We’re past the 15th of December and there hasn’t been a 4”+ event at our site yet, which puts this season’s occurrence later than the threshold date I selected in the survey.

 

Well, the first 4”+ storm of the 2015-2016 winter season is in the books now, and it came in one time block later than what I had selected in the survey.  This is by far the latest first occurrence of a 4”+ storm in my data set, exceeding the previous record by 20 days.

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