Lookout Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 So far I've had less than half the rain we had over night Wednesday into Thursday from the passage of the front. Nothing but light rain and drizzle, and I couldn't be happier about it. The radar is very very lacking, more good news. hrrr and rap doing an ok job this morning and they both suggest this is a temporary "break" with an increase in intensity in general coming. . Here is the experimental hrrr 24 hour totals and a radar loop which obviously indicates It still should be raining in central sc 24 hours from now in many of the same areas that are getting hit now. The exact location /orientation is of course subject to change as well as totals But what is important is to note the general location of the rainfall and duration. Those in sc should not let their guard down because it's far from over. what's scary is how it shows the worst hit areas along the coast getting hit for the next 13 to 15 hours straight before it drifts some to the north. Considering what they have already experienced, it's almost unbelievable. keep in mind also..these graphics stop at 6 inches. loop. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2015100315&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 It's very clear knowing what's happened up till this point and looking at current radar in addition to the model forecast the next 48 hrs. Charleston area is ground zero and it's going to get alot worse fast. Hope storm and all the posters from that area can hang tough. They are in the Genesis of a flooding disaster for there area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 hrrr and rap doing an ok job this morning and they both suggest this is a temporary "break" with an increase in intensity in general coming. . Here is the experimental hrrr 24 hour totals and a radar loop which obviously indicates It still should be raining in central sc 24 hours from now in many of the same areas that are getting hit now. The exact location /orientation is of course subject to change as well as totals But what is important is to note the general location of the rainfall and duration. Those in sc should not let their guard down because it's far from over. what's scary is how it shows the worst hit areas along the coast getting hit for the next 13 to 15 hours straight before it drifts some to the north. Considering what they have already experienced, it's almost unbelievable. keep in mind also..these graphics stop at 6 inches. loop. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2015100315&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6 Warm air is starting to erode west now, this could be troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Raining here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Phenomenal rainfall rates right now. Sometime I'll get me a digital gauge. As tropical as these sporadic showers are, I wish they carried the warmth of the tropics with them. I'd prefer the muggy showers as opposed to the cool and clammy showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 .36" in 15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Phenomenal rainfall rates right now. Sometime I'll get me a digital gauge. As tropical as these sporadic showers are, I wish they carried the warmth of the tropics with them. I'd prefer the muggy showers as opposed to the cool and clammy showers.Yeah we are seeing some of the heaviest rates of the day currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 4.5 and some of the heaviest rain yet is coming down. the wind has also picked up quite a bit - hard to believe it could rain like this all night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 2.25" here since midnight. All the moisture appears to be splitting north and south of here with a huge dry spot for Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 2.25" here since midnight. All the moisture appears to be splitting north and south of here with a huge dry spot for Greenville. There is a big slug in Columbia aimed right at us at gsp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Pouring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Pouring again. Very briefly..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 There is a big slug in Columbia aimed right at us at gsp.It'll find away around us! Shetleys house might be up to .26! The heavy rain seems to weaken or fall apart after CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 It'll find away around us! Shetleys house might be up to .26! The heavy rain seems to weaken or fall apart after CAE Did shetley hijack your account? You know you are not suppose to give out your password. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 It'll find away around us! Shetleys house might be up to .26! The heavy rain seems to weaken or fall apart after CAE You at 3-4"? Radar looks good, just keeps coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 The Clemson game is going to be a mess. There is a big area of mod to heavy rain aimed right at the Clemson area. 1-3 inches of rain likely there just during the game itself. I'm not sure what happened overall though, to cause the system not to be dropping the very heavy 1 foot plus totals the models has suggested much of SC would get. Only the Charleston area up towards Camden and Columbia have a chance for those totals now I think. Some spots around Charleston may already be there. It will go down as a major event though in all of NC and SC, along with much of eastern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Very briefly..... Yep, lasted about 10 minutes. Quite heavy though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 close to 3 inches so far here..much of that fell in about an hour. As good ol jr used to say though business is about to pick up area wide it would appear. There has been a noticeable increase in coverage and intensity the last hour or so pretty much area wide. More concerning is that cluster of convection coming ashore in sc. Feel like in general that will spread inland filling in the remaining large gap..while over all it's all about to consolidate into a more condensed and robust area of heavy rains. I really have to feel for those along the sc coast/lower piedmont. As broken as the rain appeared to be for much of the afternoon, it's still been going good down that way and there is just no end in sight. the 18z nam, the 18z gfs, and the 24 hour hrrr keep the rain going down that way as is the next 24 hours...but What's even scarier is the 18z nam, 18z, gfs, and 18z rgem suggest heavy rains continue for the next...48 to 60 hours at least.. yes..48 to 60 hours as another low pops just off shore and hangs back yet another band of very heavy rainfall right along the coast. I don't think it even needs to be said how bad things will be for coastal sc if this comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I'm sitting at 4" and it's still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 close to 3 inches so far here..much of that fell in about an hour. As good ol jr used to say though business is about to pick up area wide it would appear. There has been a noticeable increase in coverage and intensity the last hour or so pretty much area wide. More concerning is that cluster of convection coming ashore in sc. Feel like in general that will spread inland filling in the remaining large gap..while over all it's all about to consolidate into a more condensed and robust area of heavy rains. I really have to feel for those along the sc coast/lower piedmont. As broken as the rain appeared to be for much of the afternoon, it's still been going good down that way and there is just no end in sight. the 18z nam, the 18z gfs, and the 24 hour hrrr keep the rain going down that way as is the next 24 hours. What's even scarier is the 18z nam, 18z, gfs, and 18z rgem suggest heavy rains continue for the next...48 to 60 hours at least.. yes..48 to 60 hours as another low pops just off shore and hangs back yet another band of very heavy rainfall right along the coast. I don't think it even needs to be said how bad things will be for coastal sc if this comes to pass. Seen the 12z Euro drops another 11" on Charleston,GFS 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 18z GFS..72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 NAM 4K 60H Edit:18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Brother lives in Mt Pleasant, SC (Charleston SC). Waiting for a new report. Fire hose looks open again in his area. What an epic rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 NWS Severe Tstorm @NWSSevereTstorm 26s27 seconds agoNorth Charleston, SC Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Charleston SC, Charleston Airport SC, James Island SC until 9:15 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 report from my brother is that is that the rain is so hard with wind, it is likely missing the rain meter at this point. swamp out after 4 days of rain, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 3" in Boone the past 24 hours making our 10 day total 15.1" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 latest from my brother. Homes toilets are backing up on his street. No joke This is not the slums either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 latest from my brother. Homes toilets are backing up on his street. No joke This is not the slums either. latest is they are almost under water. no where for the water to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 latest from my brother. Homes toilets are backing up on his street. No joke This is not the slums either. How much rain has he received? 10"+ yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 How much rain has he received? 10"+ yet? Did not ask him yet. I get the impression that he is concerned for safety now. wife and 3 kids etc. He has a canal in his back yard and is reporting to me via text that they have water in the yard etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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