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Oct 2nd-5th ULL OBS Major Flooding in SC Midlands/Low Country


Hvward

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So far I've had less than half the rain we had over night Wednesday into Thursday from the passage of the front.  

Nothing but light rain and drizzle, and I couldn't be happier about it.

 

The radar is very very lacking, more good news.

hrrr and rap doing an ok job this morning  and they both suggest this is a temporary "break" with an increase in intensity in general coming. .  Here is the experimental hrrr 24 hour totals and a radar loop which obviously indicates It still should be raining in central sc 24 hours from now in many of the same areas that are getting hit now. The exact location /orientation is of course subject to change as well as totals  But what is important is to note the general location of the rainfall and duration. Those in sc should not let their guard down because it's far from over.

 

what's scary is how it shows the worst hit areas along the coast getting hit for the next 13 to 15 hours straight before it drifts some to the north. Considering what they have already experienced, it's almost unbelievable. keep in mind also..these graphics stop at 6 inches.

 

 

loop.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2015100315&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

 

totp_t6sfc_f24.png

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It's very clear knowing what's happened up till this point and looking at current radar in addition to the model forecast the next 48 hrs. Charleston area is ground zero and it's going to get alot worse fast. Hope storm and all the posters from that area can hang tough. They are in the Genesis of a flooding disaster for there area.

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hrrr and rap doing an ok job this morning  and they both suggest this is a temporary "break" with an increase in intensity in general coming. .  Here is the experimental hrrr 24 hour totals and a radar loop which obviously indicates It still should be raining in central sc 24 hours from now in many of the same areas that are getting hit now. The exact location /orientation is of course subject to change as well as totals  But what is important is to note the general location of the rainfall and duration. Those in sc should not let their guard down because it's far from over.

 

what's scary is how it shows the worst hit areas along the coast getting hit for the next 13 to 15 hours straight before it drifts some to the north. Considering what they have already experienced, it's almost unbelievable. keep in mind also..these graphics stop at 6 inches.

 

 

loop.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2015100315&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

 

totp_t6sfc_f24.png

 

Warm air is starting to erode west now, this could be troubling.

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Phenomenal rainfall rates right now. Sometime I'll get me a digital gauge. As tropical as these sporadic showers are, I wish they carried the warmth of the tropics with them. I'd prefer the muggy showers as opposed to the cool and clammy showers.

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Phenomenal rainfall rates right now. Sometime I'll get me a digital gauge. As tropical as these sporadic showers are, I wish they carried the warmth of the tropics with them. I'd prefer the muggy showers as opposed to the cool and clammy showers.

Yeah we are seeing some of the heaviest rates of the day currently.
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The Clemson game is going to be a mess. There is a big area of mod to heavy rain aimed right at the Clemson area. 1-3 inches of rain likely there just during the game itself. I'm not sure what happened overall though, to cause the system not to be dropping the very heavy 1 foot plus totals the models has suggested much of SC would get. Only the Charleston area up towards Camden and Columbia have a chance for those totals now I think. Some spots around Charleston may already be there. It will go down as a major event though in all of NC and SC, along with much of eastern GA.

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close to 3 inches so far here..much of that fell in about an hour.  As good ol jr used to say though business is about to pick up  area wide it would appear. There has been a noticeable increase in coverage and intensity the last hour or so pretty much area wide. More concerning is that cluster of convection coming ashore in sc. Feel like in general  that will spread inland filling in the remaining large gap..while over all it's all about to consolidate into a more condensed and robust area of heavy rains.

 

I really have to feel for those along the sc coast/lower piedmont. As broken as the rain appeared to be for much of the afternoon, it's still been going good down that way and there is just no end in sight. the 18z nam, the 18z gfs, and the  24 hour hrrr keep the rain going down that way as is  the next 24 hours...but What's even scarier is the 18z nam, 18z, gfs, and 18z rgem suggest heavy rains continue for the next...48 to 60 hours at least.. yes..48 to 60 hours as another low pops just off shore and hangs back yet another band of very heavy rainfall right along the coast.  I don't think it even needs to be said how bad things will be for coastal sc if this comes to pass.

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close to 3 inches so far here..much of that fell in about an hour.  As good ol jr used to say though business is about to pick up  area wide it would appear. There has been a noticeable increase in coverage and intensity the last hour or so pretty much area wide. More concerning is that cluster of convection coming ashore in sc. Feel like in general  that will spread inland filling in the remaining large gap..while over all it's all about to consolidate into a more condensed and robust area of heavy rains.

 

I really have to feel for those along the sc coast/lower piedmont. As broken as the rain appeared to be for much of the afternoon, it's still been going good down that way and there is just no end in sight. the 18z nam, the 18z gfs, and the  24 hour hrrr keep the rain going down that way as is  the next 24 hours. What's even scarier is the 18z nam, 18z, gfs, and 18z rgem suggest heavy rains continue for the next...48 to 60 hours at least.. yes..48 to 60 hours as another low pops just off shore and hangs back yet another band of very heavy rainfall right along the coast.  I don't think it even needs to be said how bad things will be for coastal sc if this comes to pass.

Seen the 12z Euro drops another 11" on Charleston,GFS 12"

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