Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 UNTIL 200 AM EDT * AT 1002 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF RAIN...SOME OF IT HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... RALEIGH...DURHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...CARY...CHAPEL HILL...SANFORD... HILLSBOROUGH...RAEFORD...PITTSBORO AND LILLINGTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0544NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...CENT/S NORTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 030209Z - 030809Z SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WITH 6HR TOTALS OVER 4-6" LIKELYWITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST.DISCUSSION...DEEP STRATOSPHERIC FOLD SEEN WELL IN STANDARD WV ASWELL AS RGB AIR MASS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OFMEXICO... ALLOW EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE WITH STRONG 100-110 KTJET...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HUGS THE SOUTH CAROLINACOASTLINE THROUGH CAPE FEAR INTO THE OUTER BANKS OFNC...BROAD/DEEP LOW LEVEL WITH AN EXTREME MOISTURE TONGUE PULLEDFROM THE OUTER PORTIONS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE POOLED AROUND2.4-2.5" WITHIN TPW ANALYSIS POINTED UPP THE FRONT TOWARD KCHS.SWIR LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL AS AWEAK CONVERGENCE TROF INTERSECTING THE FRONT SE OF HILTON HEADISLAND. THIS NOW FOCUSES THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST CONVECTION THATWILL DRIFT ASHORE OVER CENTRAL SC COAST SHIFTING EVER SO SLOWLYWEST...AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND THE BASE. CONVECTIONHAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AND LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR INTERMITTENT 3-4"/HR RATES SEEN NEAR NORTH MYRTLE BEACH/CALABASH AREA OVER THELAST 6HRS...WITH 24HR TOTALS IN THE 10- 14" SEEN IN MESONET ANDPERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS/CWOP. THIS REMAINS A POTENTIAL SCENARIOOVER THE NEXT 6-12HRS PARTICULARLY NEAR COAST AND NEAR THE TRIPLEPOINT OF THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES.FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...INSTABILITIES BECOME EXHAUSTED BUT BROADSCALEASCENT REMAINS TO SUPPORT BROAD SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH RATES OF1.0-1.5"/HR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SC/S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. STRENGTHENING AND BACKING 7H FLOW AND EASTERLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOWFOR FASTER WESTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINETOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NC APPALACHIANS. THE RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE AXIS WELL HANDLED FROMKCHS TO KCLT INCLUDING 6HR TOTALS OF 4-6" THOUGH APPEARS TO OVERDO THE AMOUNTS ACROSS NC. THE NSSL WRF ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AGOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAY UNDER DO THEAMOUNTS AT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AXIS IN NC. AT THIS TIME...SERIOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS URBANCENTERS NEAR/AROUND CHARLESTON SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS -60TO -70C COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE VICINITY WITH A LOOK OFTRAINING TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Winding down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Rain has stopped here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I really thought we picked up more this evening than we did. Maybe because I haven seen it rain steady for 4 straight hours in months? That round gave us another .73"... so that's .96" for the day so far; 1.84" for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Flood warning issued for us as some of he heaviest rain of the day is falling I can easily hear it on the roof....had 4.75" in the gauge a few hrs ago easily .50" since then plus the 3.5" from Wed night/Thur put us at 9-10"....that's enough it can quit now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Rain coming down for about an hour now, 55F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Precip amounts for the areas that the event is ending are below forecast thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Near Calabash (NC/SC Line): Jamie Arnold WMBF @jamiearnoldWMBF 12s13 seconds ago 20 Foot sinkhole on HWY 179 and Park Lane in Sunset Beach. #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Rain is finally almost here. First band only about a mile away. The main shield feels like it isn't moving at all. I've been watching that thing for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Rain is finally almost here. First band only about a mile away. The main shield feels like it isn't moving at all. I've been watching that thing for hours. Fixing to get smoked here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Just had 1.5" since I dumped the gauge at 10:45 bringing my 24 hr total 6.25" and since Wed 9.25" and its still raining and most models had us shut off by now but a new impulse came in and looks to go just north of the triangle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Over a foot in the Little River area. Middle of the night evacuations are underway over a pretty good sized area around Calabash. Red Cross has multiple shelters open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 6 3/4" since Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Whopping 0.15" so far. Doesn't look like this first batch is going to make it here anytime soon. Looks to be moving more northward still instead of westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 After a lull, it's pouring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 This surprise band might give us another 0.25-0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Flash flood warning for CLT metro. Parts of CLT are over 3 inches and it doesn't look to end anytime soon. I suspect there will be many areas that flood. Stay safe folks. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Pretty much a dud here so far. Seem to keep catching all the big holes that keep opening up in the rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Anyone else noticing the moisture being robbed out west of Charlotte toward GSP, Gastonia and Asheville? I'm hopeful this will cut down on the massive totals and flooding in wnc...any thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Charleston is getting slammed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Picked up 1.70" here. 1" fell overnight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Massive bolt of lightning and a loud clap of thunder and now the rain is finally starting to come down good here some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Seems that there was a METAR outage last hour for ~3-4 hours between 10pm-2 am? cant find any data for those hours. Also seems like CLX radar intensity is rather underdone. CHS reported 0.98" rain last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 1.9 inches yesterday and last night. 3 inches so far and the hard stuff hasn't even reached us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Another .60" overnight, 1.56" for the day Friday; 2.44" event total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Raining pretty good here now with some good wind. Is this considered a drought buster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Another .60" overnight, 1.56" for the day Friday; 2.44" event total so far. You were in the middle of the two big band that setup. I'm guessing I am sitting right at 9 inches after more downpours last night and this morning. It was raining too hard when I left for work to go check my rain gauge. Seems like the line was north to south most of the day and then rotated to a NW to SE orientation rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Yeah, we did pretty good with the rain, but without the flooding problems those to the E&W are and will be having. My main concern now is if the winds/gusts show up as predicted, the potential of power outages or trees down in the yard. Duke is reporting 20,000+ out this morning, almost all West of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 This final shower passing through just dumped down heavier than anything we've had the last 8 days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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