weatherbo Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I echo the others bo. Congrats! I've been recording my weather since 1996 but an official weather observer since 2004. These records will be around long after you are not. It's a cool feeling Your records, stats and dedication is pretty impressive, Josh. I've always thought so. Thanks for the comments everyone. I appreciate it. NOT GOOD: MQT LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DOMINATING THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF DEC HAS STRENGTHENED...AND FARTHER OUT...CFSV2 16 MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED THE SIGNAL FOR WARMTH THRU THE 2ND AND 3RD WEEKS OF DEC IN RECENT DAYS. ITS SFC TEMP POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE...EXTENDING FROM ALASKA/NW CANADA SE THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. IF CORRECT...WE`LL BE LOOKING AT AN UNUSUALLY WARM DEC WITH WELL BLO NORMAL LES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 That would be awesome monitoring and collecting the weather data in a remote location. I hope to get to do it someday. where would be ideal for you Geos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The long range models are borderline depressing for any snow for most if not all of the subforum. Even the LES belts are goign to feel it this year, feel bad for all the businesses that are going to take it on the chin this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Pretty amazing how nature can balance out the weather from one year to the next. Last year the Buffalo area had record snow early in the season and this year going on the record least amount. I'm in the minority I'm sure but as someone who wants and needs snow to play in around the Christmas to New Years time frame in northern lower MI I'm kinda glad the long range is looking warm for the next few weeks. I've seen it way to many times over the years where we would get cold and snow in late Nov and early Dec only to have it washed away around Christmas time. It might not be the case this winter season but I'll take my chances, heck, don't matter right, not like we can control it anyways. Congrats Bo on the observation deal! Very cool and hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I totally agree on your logic. I have been following weather for a long time and have observed the same thing. I feel that our odds are better for the pattern to change for the better closer to Christmas if we maintain the same warm pattern we have had all Autumn for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I totally agree on your logic. I have been following weather for a long time and have observed the same thing. I feel that our odds are better for the pattern to change for the better closer to Christmas if we maintain the same warm pattern we have had all Autumn for the time being.This is a good point. Even if December is a lost cause doesn't mean winter will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 This is a good point. Even if December is a lost cause doesn't mean winter will be. This is very true. Last December was a disaster, heck we tied our least snowiest December on record with 0.02" of snow. Although to be honest, last winter just wasn't that great around here, besides the March 1st storm, that dropped 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 This is very true. Last December was a disaster, heck we tied our least snowiest December on record with 0.02" of snow. Although to be honest, last winter just wasn't that great around here, besides the March 1st storm, that dropped 8". Last winter was only slightly above normal here snow-wise. Hit hard early, then very long lull. Last 2 winters were clearly a Chicago to Detroit bonanza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Last winter was only slightly above normal here snow-wise. Hit hard early, then very long lull. Last 2 winters were clearly a Chicago to Detroit bonanza. Exactly and not only that, they have cashed in on TWO historic blizzards in the last 4 years. GHD I and GHD II. Which oddly enough occurred on the same exact dates, 4 years apart. We have been on a good roll ourselves though. You guys get it on good apps runners, which have been fairly absent the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 where would be ideal for you Geos? A windward side of a mountain side in the central to northern Rockies or in the Pacific Northwest. Pretty much guaranteed good snowfall each winter - given that your high enough. Even along the front range west of Denver and Boulder get into really nice snow events with an upslope easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Exactly and not only that, they have cashed in on TWO historic blizzards in the last 4 years. GHD I and GHD II. Which oddly enough occurred on the same exact dates, 4 years apart. We have been on a good roll ourselves though. You guys get it on good apps runners, which have been fairly absent the last 2 winters. The last clean app-runner, meaning it didn't transfer, jump, or come too far west and stick us with a warm tongue. A low that drove up the spine or slightly west into PA and then into the eastern lakes was probably March '08. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on that. We've had some Kentucky cutters, bowlers and sloppy pseudo-runners, but not since '08, have we had the classic cash-in kind that can give us Columbus's version of Chicagos GHD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The last clean app-runner, meaning it didn't transfer, jump, or come too far west and stick us with a warm tongue. A low that drove up the spine or slightly west into PA and then into the eastern lakes was probably March '08. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on that. We've had some Kentucky cutters, bowlers and sloppy pseudo-runners, but not since '08, have we had the classic cash-in kind that can give us Columbus's version of Chicagos GHD storm. That was my first thought too. Haven't really had a storm drop over 6" here since that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Wow. Your crew is due for a good thumping! While Chicago has been on a roll for 12" storms, we have only had 1 in the last 8 years. That was 3-25-13, and it all melted within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Wow. Your crew is due for a good thumping! While Chicago has been on a roll for 12" storms, we have only had 1 in the last 8 years. That was 3-25-13, and it all melted within 48 hours. actually we have had a few 6"+ since '08, (they weren't app runners though), in fact I think 2 winters ago we had at least 1 that was close 10" and last winter I'm pretty sure we had a couple over 6". I'm not a stat guy and I have a bad memory so maybe someone else can fill in the correct blanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 That was my first thought too. Haven't really had a storm drop over 6" here since that one. are you sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 are you sure about that? Here in Dayton, yes. Even a couple years ago when we had the I think 2nd snowiest winter, that was mostly clippers 2 or 3 of which produced about 6" but nothing higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Here in Dayton, yes. Even a couple years ago when we had the I think 2nd snowiest winter, that was mostly clippers 2 or 3 of which produced about 6" but nothing higher than that. 6.1" fell December 6th 2013 and 7.0" December 26th 2012 that is just going back to 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 The last clean app-runner, meaning it didn't transfer, jump, or come too far west and stick us with a warm tongue. A low that drove up the spine or slightly west into PA and then into the eastern lakes was probably March '08. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on that. We've had some Kentucky cutters, bowlers and sloppy pseudo-runners, but not since '08, have we had the classic cash-in kind that can give us Columbus's version of Chicagos GHD storm. It's hard to believe that was already 8 winter seasons ago. I hate to use the term, but we're certainly at the point where we are "overdue" for something big, especially a good I-71 special like that. Here in CLE, our last 1 inch snowfall was on March 1st. We'll easily go well over 9 months between 1" snowfalls, which is impressive. The combination of an early end to winter last year and a late start to winter this year is certainly making me feel snow starved. One thing that's been interesting this year is that it's felt like one of the longest falls. The number of 60+ and 70+ degree days the last 6 weeks has been incredible. If it's not going to snow I'll take 60 degree days like today than 37 and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Officially only two...though with a little luck, it could've been five. But here's the 10"+ storms, dating back to GHD I. Pretty good run I'd say. January 31-February 2, 2011: 21.2" December 31-January 2, 2014: 10.9" January 4-5, 2014: 11.7" January 31-February 2, 2015: 19.3" November 20-21, 2015: 11.2" Same at DTW...five 10"+ storms since 2011. Pretty damn good. Feb 1-2, 2011: 10.3" Feb 20-21, 2011: 10.2" Dec 31-Jan 2, 2014: 11.1" Jan 4-5, 2014: 11.0" Feb 1-2, 2015: 16.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 The last clean app-runner, meaning it didn't transfer, jump, or come too far west and stick us with a warm tongue. A low that drove up the spine or slightly west into PA and then into the eastern lakes was probably March '08. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on that. We've had some Kentucky cutters, bowlers and sloppy pseudo-runners, but not since '08, have we had the classic cash-in kind that can give us Columbus's version of Chicagos GHD storm. Yes, you are correct. And it's not just the classic Apps runners that have been MIA. Systems like 12/1/06 have been MIA also (although GHD 2011 was close). Of course, the difference with Chicago / Detroit is thanks to their latitude, there are other frequently occurring storm types and storm tracks that can produce well for those cities, unlike Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Yes, you are correct. And it's not just the classic Apps runners that have been MIA. Systems like 12/1/06 have been MIA also (although GHD 2011 was close). Of course, the difference with Chicago / Detroit is thanks to their latitude, there are other frequently occurring storm types and storm tracks that can produce well for those cities, unlike Columbus. Agree, a big difference we have here is also our proximity to the Ohio river valley which often acts like a chute for the WTOD. So we can have low pressure take what should be a favorable track, just to our south or east, and still get licked by the tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Toronto has had two 10"+ storms since '08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 This is something that's out of season and has probably been discussed in the main forum, but I don't know since I rarely visit there. I was nibbing around and found that although the trend is to have fewer tornado days, there is a greater risk for an outbreak on those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 This is something that's out of season and has probably been discussed in the main forum, but I don't know since I rarely visit there. I was nibbing around and found that although the trend is to have fewer tornado days, there is a greater risk for an outbreak on those days. tornadodays.jpg Pretty sure this topic was posted in the climate change forum. I believe there was a paper to accompany it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Pretty sure this topic was posted in the climate change forum. I believe there was a paper to accompany it. Thanks, I'll check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Thanks, I'll check it out. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44240-fsu-professor-links-tornado-strength-frequency-to-climate-change/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Wow. Your crew is due for a good thumping! While Chicago has been on a roll for 12" storms, we have only had 1 in the last 8 years. That was 3-25-13, and it all melted within 48 hours. One of the greatest snowstorms locally here ended up with 13.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 One of the greatest snowstorms locally here ended up with 13.5" Just looked at the teleconnections for that event and the AO was in the tank at -4.6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Just looked at the teleconnections for that event and the AO was in the tank at -4.6! That storm and 2-13-07, are the only 12" storms I can remember since 2000. Blizzard of 07 is my favorite storm to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 GFS has been whipping up some bombs in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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