2015/16 Autumn/Winter Banter, Complaint, Whining Thread

[Torchageddon]

I haven't been paying close attention to the weather recently but I'm really enjoying this February so far. Normally its the coldest week of the year and there is snow flying but yesterday and now its really sunny and record warm which is a combo I don't always see this time of year (December was overcast/rainy during its record heat). Its rare to have 2 sunny days in a row anytime in February because the lakes just blanket the region in total overcast for weeks in a row. The rain just happened to fall overnight.

 

I'm definitely getting that early Spring vibe right now. Temps are overperforming and cold snaps are underperforming with the colder air later this week going up in my forecast. Its never been 20ºC this far north in February that I know of, can this year be the one?

[Trent]

Absolutely torching today. Smashed the old record of 57 set in 1890, with a new high of 63. Beautiful sunny skies and low 60s in Cleveland in the beginning of February. Days like today almost make the 20% of normal snowfall bearable. If it's not going to snow, might as well have this kind of weather!

[Jonger]

I agree, I think we are on borrowed time even for NWL and UP snow belts, the stratospheric warming event will help give us a quick shot of cold but don't think it will stay around to long. This El-Ninio has been a dagger in the hearts of many for a decent winter. 

 

The UP is down, but it really hasn't been that bad after Jan 1st. The playground has lots of sand, swingsets and slides... if we are using analogies. 

[Jonger]

The current 'warm-up" everyone is blabbering about, is just based on the MJO and other indexes. We used the same thing to see the cool down that never came in December.

 

We will be well into negative departures by Feb 15th.

[BuffaloWeather]

60 degrees with the windows open while driving, it feels great. Sun leaking in and out of clouds.

[BuffaloWeather]

Absolutely torching today. Smashed the old record of 57 set in 1890, with a new high of 63. Beautiful sunny skies and low 60s in Cleveland in the beginning of February. Days like today almost make the 20% of normal snowfall bearable. If it's not going to snow, might as well have this kind of weather!

Completely agree. Cold and dry sucks, give me snow or give me 60s and sun.

[Chargers09]

FYP

My post was about Southeast Michigan. Not about the UP. Not about some obscure region up in Ontario. Detroit area. With no snowcover, a lack of favorable teleconnections, and a pattern that looks to be transitioning to zonal with no real polar air, the signs are clearly there that past this first 10-15 days of Feb, we may be done down here. Seasonal to above is an easy call with no snowpack.

 

The current 'warm-up" everyone is blabbering about, is just based on the MJO and other indexes. We used the same thing to see the cool down that never came in December.

 

We will be well into negative departures by Feb 15th.

Link? The long range this season has had a distinct habit of showing frigid air in the long range, which hasn't come true in reality.

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

Care to share any evidence to the contrary? Fact is there is literally no snow cover to our southwest, and we have been overperforming in the temperature department for a week already. This has the makings of an early spring unless we somehow get a snowstorm to put down a lot of snow cover fast. Without it, the dry ground will continue to warm quickly and we will continue to bust forecast expectations.

Hell then you combine that with the fact that there is minimal ice coverage over the Great Lakes as well. Notice how these cold snaps come in less impressive? That isn't just by coincidence.

At least you actually gave reasoning for an early spring. Most saying so give no more reasoning for an early spring than Jonger does for a late spring.

What I WILL say...is that there have been quite a few cold Springs in strong ninos. No better case than 1982-83, a winter warmer than this and certainly lacking snow and ice cover. A lot of mild winters in general tend to have a cold spring. I could name dozens. My only point is that winter doesn't have to be cold for spring to be. That's not a prediction btw, it's a statement.

[snowstormcanuck]

 

My post was about Southeast Michigan. Not about the UP. Not about some obscure region up in Ontario. Detroit area. With no snowcover, a lack of favorable teleconnections, and a pattern that looks to be transitioning to zonal with no real polar air, the signs are clearly there that past this first 10-15 days of Feb, we may be done down here. Seasonal to above is an easy call with no snowpack.

 

Link? The long range this season has had a distinct habit of showing frigid air in the long range, which hasn't come true in reality.

 

 

 

 

 

lol, Jonger has an extreme case of imbyitis

[Jonger]

 

My post was about Southeast Michigan. Not about the UP. Not about some obscure region up in Ontario. Detroit area. With no snowcover, a lack of favorable teleconnections, and a pattern that looks to be transitioning to zonal with no real polar air, the signs are clearly there that past this first 10-15 days of Feb, we may be done down here. Seasonal to above is an easy call with no snowpack.

 

Link? The long range this season has had a distinct habit of showing frigid air in the long range, which hasn't come true in reality.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the 10 day GFS.

 

Remember, the Ground Hogs day storm was modeled on the GFS 10 days out and the track was accurate to within 100 miles.

 

This puts us to nearly mid-month.

 

[Jonger]

lol, Jonger has an extreme case of imbyitis

 

Care to explain? I'm the least IMBY on AmWx, besides AndyWB.

[snowstormcanuck]

Care to explain? I'm the least IMBY on AmWx, besides AndyWB.

 

Don't have the time or interest to dig up evidence. Let's just say it's my perception. Could be wrong. Regardless, it's not a big deal. I'm not calling you a nazi or anything.

[Jonger]

Don't have the time or interest to dig up evidence. Let's just say it's my perception. Could be wrong. Regardless, it's not a big deal. I'm not calling you a nazi or anything.

Oh, I wasn't offended. I couldn't tell if you were saying I favored my backyard or didn't. I'm a snow fan, but as long as its in Michigan, I'm happy.

[SpartyOn]

The current 'warm-up" everyone is blabbering about, is just based on the MJO and other indexes. We used the same thing to see the cool down that never came in December.

We will be well into negative departures by Feb 15th.

So I take it you read GRRs AFD? You obviously discounted it though....with regards to December, the majority of met offices including GRR had one negative AFD after another in which they kept hitting at an unfavorable MJO for sustained cold. They were seriously correct for the most part.

[Jonger]

So I take it you read GRRs AFD? You obviously discounted it though....with regards to December, the majority of met offices including GRR had one negative AFD after another in which they kept hitting at an unfavorable MJO for sustained cold. They were seriously correct for the most part.

 

This? Just sounds like they're saying it should be warm, but isn't.

 

 

 THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN AS WE

HEAD INTO SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

THE PROBLEM IS WE HAVE CONFLICTING SIGNALS. OUR STRONG EL NINO IS

HELPING THE MJO CONVECTIVE WAVE STRENGTHEN QUAD 4 DURING THE NEXT

FEW DAYS. THAT POSITION OF THE MJO CONVECTION WOULD NORMALLY BE A

VERY WARM WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR AT LEAST A

WEEK. ALSO GOING ALONG WITH THAT IDEA WE ALSO HAVE ANOTHER ONE OF

THOSE EXTEND EAST ASIAN JETS NEAR 200 KNOTS HEADING FOR THE

INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. TYPICALLY THAT JET CORE HEADS EAST INTO WEST

COST OF THE CONUS SETTING UP A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED

STATES. ALL OF THIS WOULD MEAN RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE

GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... THE MODELS SHOW

OTHERWISE. IT SEEMS THAT JET STREAK HELPS TO KEEP A RATHER DEEP

STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AS A SERIES OF STORMS SEEM TO

MERGE INTO THE STORM SYSTEM ALREADY THERE. THAT RESULTS IN A LARGE

WESTERN RIDGE WHICH HELPS TO FORCE A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT

WAVE DIG OUT A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT

WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING DOWN...BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON

IF IT ALL PLAYS OUT THIS WAY.

THE IMPACT ON WEST MICHIGAN WEATHER WOULD BE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING

NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY CAUSING NOT MUCH MORE THERE THAN CLOUDS

AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES. BY MONDAY THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM

WOULD SEND A CLIPPER SYSTEM SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN

GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE

REALLY COLD AIR WOULD NOT GET HERE TILL WEDNESDAY. IF THIS ALL

PLAYS OUT A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE RATHER SNOWY FOR THE

LAKE SHORE AREAS. EASTERN SECTIONS WOULD SEE SNOW BUT ONLY SMALL

AMOUNTS.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT... THE MJO

CONVECTIVE WAVE MAY YET TRUMP THIS (FORCING THE STORM NOT TO DIG SO

FAR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK). THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS WILL HELP

SEE HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.

[Stebo]

At least you actually gave reasoning for an early spring. Most saying so give no more reasoning for an early spring than Jonger does for a late spring.

What I WILL say...is that there have been quite a few cold Springs in strong ninos. No better case than 1982-83, a winter warmer than this and certainly lacking snow and ice cover. A lot of mild winters in general tend to have a cold spring. I could name dozens. My only point is that winter doesn't have to be cold for spring to be. That's not a prediction btw, it's a statement.

Yes Ninos can be cold in the Spring and to be honest April might be that cold month but I don't suspect it to be a very below normal spring especially if March starts off above normal.

[Sidewinder]

Without jinxing anyone, hour 300 on the 12Z looks very interesting.

[Jackstraw]

Awesome, spotter training class on March 8th in my county........ at the Hoosier Park Casino! 

[BuffaloWeather]

Yes Ninos can be cold in the Spring and to be honest April might be that cold month but I don't suspect it to be a very below normal spring especially if March starts off above normal.

 

Do La Nina winters start earlier then normal or around normal? As it looks to be a very strong one coming next winter.

[Stebo]

Do La Nina winters start earlier then normal or around normal? As it looks to be a very strong one coming next winter.

To be honest just looking at the numbers quickly, it looks like there really isn't a distinct pattern, I see some years starting early while years like 98-99 not getting going until almost January.

[weathergy]

Just our of curiosity, where is everyone getting MORCH from? Wishful thinking? I absolutely HATE spring with a passion like no other. And if I could make winter last as long as possible and have summer start early....I would!

Many of us like all forms of natural phenomenons, whether it's a whopping and ripping snow storm, or a derecho. I just want to move on from this winter and into severe season because it's obvious that chances of getting any kind of meaningful snow here in the Detroit area are on the low end. Yeah, we had a storm in November, but that wasn't impressive in the downriver area because of the moisture cutoff.

 

I hate boring, and if this winter isn't going to yield a storm, let's move on already. This would be an awesome severe pattern in the spring.

[TugHillMatt]

Just our of curiosity, where is everyone getting MORCH from? Wishful thinking? I absolutely HATE spring with a passion like no other. And if I could make winter last as long as possible and have summer start early....I would!

 

You and I have such a similar attitude towards winter and the seasons. I say the same thing. Jump to summer after the last snow. I hate everything about melting snow and everybody being like, "tehehe...it's sooooooooooooooo beautiful" while they wipe mud off their legs and jump over 3 foot wide puddles......

[Powerball]

It's almost time for Part 2 of the complaint thread.

[TugHillMatt]

It's almost time for Part 2 of the complaint thread.

 

JUST Part 2?!? I'm shocked after all the crap this winter has pulled...

[michsnowfreak]

Many of us like all forms of natural phenomenons, whether it's a whopping and ripping snow storm, or a derecho. I just want to move on from this winter and into severe season because it's obvious that chances of getting any kind of meaningful snow here in the Detroit area are on the low end. Yeah, we had a storm in November, but that wasn't impressive in the downriver area because of the moisture cutoff.

I hate boring, and if this winter isn't going to yield a storm, let's move on already. This would be an awesome severe pattern in the spring.

I have no complaints about the Nov storm. The problem downriver was dryslot midday. The actual storm during the evening was nice, it ripped heavy snow, and 5" is my biggest November snowstorm I've seen. While there was more snow north of us, the most picturesque flocking was right here (I witnessed this on drives to Farmington hills). While January had some plowable powder, rate wise Nov 21st was the best. This mantra of "we won't get any snowstorms because it's been a dull winter" just doesn't cut it because it's not how weather works. We have 2 more months of snowstorm potential to go, whether it works out or not remains to be seen, but because there has only been one decent snowstorm thus far does not mean there won't be anymore. A winter does not need a parade of snowstorms to produce a good storm...my how spoiled we've gotten. As said, I hate almost everything about spring...so once winter is completely done, summer can't get here fast enough. To each their own.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Morch happened one time and now it's predicted every March.

I am as guilty as anyone using the "Morch" buzzword. Probably safer, especially with the huge negative impacts Morch has later in the spring/summer, to pull for a slightly above average March. One has to think that the chances of seeing historic/record breaking extended warmth twice in less than five years is slim.

[Jonger]

I am as guilty as anyone using the "Morch" buzzword. Probably safer, especially with the huge negative impacts Morch has later in the spring/summer, to pull for a slightly above average March. One has to think that the chances of seeing historic/record breaking extended warmth twice in less than five years is slim.

 

I used to root for a Morch equivalent when I had a motorcycle. The older I get, the more I care about weather as it affects my hobbies, than the weather itself.

[cyclone77]

I'd be up for a warm March to be sure.  A 2012 type March probably won't happen again in our lifetimes, but that's not to say we couldn't see a well above normal March.  Even though I would love a warm March, if a decent snow system comes along I'd be all for it.  As long as the weather is interesting I'm happy.  Just not a fan of very cold and dry unless it's near/record breaking type of cold.  Clippers have been trash this season for those of us west of the lakes, so I'll pass on any pattern that supports more of that.  

[Jonger]

I'd be up for a warm March to be sure.  A 2012 type March probably won't happen again in our lifetimes, but that's not to say we couldn't see a well above normal March.  Even though I would love a warm March, if a decent snow system comes along I'd be all for it.  As long as the weather is interesting I'm happy.  Just not a fan of very cold and dry unless it's near/record breaking type of cold.  Clippers have been trash this season for those of us west of the lakes, so I'll pass on any pattern that supports more of that.  

 

If we didn't lose the entire month of December, I'd be ok with a March torch.... But we lost it.

 

It's silly to really argue over the weather, we can't change it. I use the season for recreation and would like to see winter hang on in the northern areas until the middle of March, 2.5 months of winter would be fine by me. If winter ended in 2 weeks, that would really suck. 

 

There are several posters I don't understand. They only post in the winter, yet they want it to end? Why even come to this forum.

[cyclone77]

If we didn't lose the entire month of December, I'd be ok with a March torch.... But we lost it.

 

It's silly to really argue over the weather, we can't change it. I use the season for recreation and would like to see winter hang on in the northern areas until the middle of March, 2.5 months of winter would be fine by me. If winter ended in 2 weeks, that would really suck. 

 

There are several posters I don't understand. They only post in the winter, yet they want it to end? Why even come to this forum.

 

Oh yeah I can definitely see how you and others inside the lake influence region want, and root for a cold pattern.  At least if the pattern is cold it maintains the existing snow cover up there, and of course gives you more LES ops.  However, down here southwest of the lakes these types of patterns are pretty dull lol.  Although, in certain situations where we have existing deep cover I could live with cold and dry to maintain the wintry look of things.  

 

Myself, I'm a 4-season enthusiast.  I'll take whatever ol' ma nature delivers as long as it's somewhat interesting and fun to track/forecast.