2015/16 Autumn/Winter Banter, Complaint, Whining Thread

[buckeye]

It's simply not true. And I just proved it with actual data...

Explain to me how Pittsburgh has such a higher annual snowfall than places with similar latitudes including the eastern seaboard?

 

Very easy....lake effect.   Trust me, no one in this subforum has more hours watching OV radars over the last 20 years than me  .   Pittsburgh almost always scores when there is a LES event during arctic outbreaks.   Where we might pick up snow showers and a coating, they will often pick up 1-3".   Those nickels and dimes add up....as in a seasonal average total of almost 50% more than CMH.

 

As far as the apps.  They can be good and bad, but usually they are more frustrating than anything else.  Mostly due to providing a perfect channel for the WTOD.   Lows have to travel far enough southeast of us to keep the tongue at bay, (usually with a greater buffer than most other areas need), but for that to happen we need the low to be either right up the western slopes of the apps or ride through central or southern KY,   both very rare tracks for strong storms.

[KokomoWX]

March is gonna rock.

 

I hear next winter will be a doozy.  

[dmc76]

Very easy....lake effect. Trust me, no one in this subforum has more hours watching OV radars over the last 20 years than me . Pittsburgh almost always scores when there is a LES event during arctic outbreaks. Where we might pick up snow showers and a coating, they will often pick up 1-3". Those nickels and dimes add up....as in a seasonal average total of almost 50% more than CMH.

As far as the apps. They can be good and bad, but usually they are more frustrating than anything else. Mostly due to providing a perfect channel for the WTOD. Lows have to travel far enough southeast of us to keep the tongue at bay, (usually with a greater buffer than most other areas need), but for that to happen we need the low to be either right up the western slopes of the apps or ride through central or southern KY, both very rare tracks for strong storms.

I once heard that it is impossible to have a Louisvile to Syracuse track?

[buckeye]

I once heard that it is impossible to have a Louisvile to Syracuse track?

 

that sounds like a good track for you guys.  I've seen many storms pass directly over CMH, but the track is usually more south to north than sw to ne.  

 

You might get a Louisville to Syracuse track with a Manitoba mauler...  I've seen ones close to that.

[dmc76]

that sounds like a good track for you guys. I've seen many storms pass directly over CMH, but the track is usually more south to north than sw to ne.

You might get a Louisville to Syracuse track with a Manitoba mauler... I've seen ones close to that.

I heard this from Henry Margusity. It was a very long time ago when he used to do his morning videos. Talking about how it's impossible to get a track like that. Saying something about the apps wouldn't allow a track like that. That would be a good/solid track for you all the way up to Buffalo/Toronto. Since then I have been paying attention to what he said. He's right it hasn't happened. That would be a swing and a miss here. Btw.

[osubrett2]

I heard this from Henry Margusity. It was a very long time ago when he used to do his morning videos. Talking about how it's impossible to get a track like that. Saying something about the apps wouldn't allow a track like that. That would be a good/solid track for you all the way up to Buffalo/Toronto. Since then I have been paying attention to what he said. He's right it hasn't happened. That would be a swing and a miss here. Btw.

 

It's rare, but it can happen. I talk ad nauseam over the March 2008 storm here, just because it's the storm I compare all storms to. I only vaguely remember 1993 and 1996, PD 2003 I recall but wasn't into the specifics yet.

 

March 2008 had a low track from Jackson, MS to Nashville to WV to Syracuse... almost right up the spine of the Apps. I remember mets saying 2-3 days before that it was impossible for the SLP to ride up the spine of the Apps and how they were sure it would shift NW (how a lot of our OV screwjobs happen), but it never did. Defied logic if you will. Snow started at 12z on 3/7/08 and ended at 22z on 3/8/08.

 

Those App runners are what we look for for a big snow here.

[wisconsinwx]

Most areas are below normal to-date (including Chicago and Detroit), so it's not like your area is experiencing anything unique from the rest of us.

 

Except 2013-14 you guys in Detroit and Chicago had historic snowfall seasons, while MKE was a bit above average at 60" and far from historic (and the N/NW suburbs have been consistently doing worse than the airport here the last couple seasons).  I have more of a right to complain about below-average snowfall than anyone in the Chicago or Detroit metros.  Most other cities in the Midwest do as well.

 

Minneapolis is in the ultimate rut though compared to other Midwest cities.  MSP posters could complain all day and I wouldn't blame them.

[snowstormcanuck]

It's rare, but it can happen. I talk ad nauseam over the March 2008 storm here, just because it's the storm I compare all storms to. I only vaguely remember 1993 and 1996, PD 2003 I recall but wasn't into the specifics yet.

 

March 2008 had a low track from Jackson, MS to Nashville to WV to Syracuse... almost right up the spine of the Apps. I remember mets saying 2-3 days before that it was impossible for the SLP to ride up the spine of the Apps and how they were sure it would shift NW (how a lot of our OV screwjobs happen), but it never did. Defied logic if you will. Snow started at 12z on 3/7/08 and ended at 22z on 3/8/08.

 

Those App runners are what we look for for a big snow here.

 

Dec 2004 was another almost Apps Runner. Tracked closer to BUF than SYR but in the same family of storms. Can't think of too many others. Of course, there was the Feb 2009 phantom Apps bomb that is etched in to my memory.

[osubrett2]

Dec 2004 was another almost Apps Runner. Tracked closer to BUF than SYR but in the same family of storms. Can't think of too many others. Of course, there was the Feb 2009 phantom Apps bomb that is etched in to my memory.

 

You're right about December 2004. I was living in NE Ohio at the time, and it was an all rain event for me, so that's why I always forget about it. That storm tracked similar to March 08, MS to WV, but instead of cutting east, it stayed west over western PA.

 

Don't recall Feb '09 in the OV, I only remember the late January 09 storm around here.

[snowstormcanuck]

You're right about December 2004. I was living in NE Ohio at the time, and it was an all rain event for me, so that's why I always forget about it. That storm tracked similar to March 08, MS to WV, but instead of cutting east, it stayed west over western PA.

 

Don't recall Feb '09 in the OV, I only remember the late January 09 storm around here.

 

For good reason! The Feb 09 one never happened.

 

It was modelled on both the UKIE and EURO as a sub 970 megabomb tracking up the Apps to Lk Ontario until it evaporated by D4. I think the GEM and GFS also had a similar, though less intense storm. Don't quite remember. DT was honking hard on this storm. Womp womp. 

[buckeye]

I heard this from Henry Margusity. It was a very long time ago when he used to do his morning videos. Talking about how it's impossible to get a track like that. Saying something about the apps wouldn't allow a track like that. That would be a good/solid track for you all the way up to Buffalo/Toronto. Since then I have been paying attention to what he said. He's right it hasn't happened. That would be a swing and a miss here. Btw.

 

Louisville to Syracuse would be a warm track for us....it would track right over us or slightly southeast, (but not enough).  I think it would be great for you though.

[buckeye]

For good reason! The Feb 09 one never happened.

 

It was modelled on both the UKIE and EURO as a sub 970 megabomb tracking up the Apps to Lk Ontario until it evaporated by D4. I think the GEM and GFS also had a similar, though less intense storm. Don't quite remember. DT was honking hard on this storm. Womp womp. 

 

I remember the fantasy buckeye bomb of 2009.   About 2 or 3 days worth of runs where there was really strong model consensus, and then they all lost it on the same model run.     I wish I would have saved LC's special column about it...some epic hype stuff, even for him.  I believe he said Cincy to Pittsburgh would be crippled or something like that

[dmc76]

Louisville to Syracuse would be a warm track for us....it would track right over us or slightly southeast, (but not enough). I think it would be great for you though.

Your right. Then it would be more favorable for Indy -> Findlay -> Cleveland then. not here. I would be on the edge of the precip. Josh (michigansnowfreak) which is about 55-60 miles south would get a few inches from that track. He would even be on the northern edge.

A favorable track for MBY would be Indianapolis to just west of Sandusky...basically in between Toledo and Sandusky more toward Sandusky. For Detroit it would be between Sandusky and Cleveland.

[Hoosier]

For good reason! The Feb 09 one never happened.

It was modelled on both the UKIE and EURO as a sub 970 megabomb tracking up the Apps to Lk Ontario until it evaporated by D4. I think the GEM and GFS also had a similar, though less intense storm. Don't quite remember. DT was honking hard on this storm. Womp womp.

One of the more memorable fails. I think it was the 00z Euro that first hinted at a weak storm going off the east coast about 4 days out. Was hoping it was a fluke run but the other models went toward it.

[dmc76]

I remember that fake storm

[LakeEffectOH]

You're right about December 2004. I was living in NE Ohio at the time, and it was an all rain event for me, so that's why I always forget about it. That storm tracked similar to March 08, MS to WV, but instead of cutting east, it stayed west over western PA.

 

Don't recall Feb '09 in the OV, I only remember the late January 09 storm around here.

Where did you live in NEOH?  I remember Chesterland getting just over a foot from the pre-Christmas Day storm of 2004 (if that's the one you are referring to).  CLE picked up about 17" and places like Avon had close to 20".  I remember the snow was wet and ended as a little freezing rain IMBY.  After that, temps fell below zero on Christmas Eve and the wet snow cover nearly turned to concrete.

[osubrett2]

Where did you live in NEOH?  I remember Chesterland getting just over a foot from the pre-Christmas Day storm of 2004 (if that's the one you are referring to).  CLE picked up about 17" and places like Avon had close to 20".  I remember the snow was wet and ended as a little freezing rain IMBY.  After that, temps fell below zero on Christmas Eve and the wet snow cover nearly turned to concrete.

 

I was in Youngstown at the time, so pretty far east from the heaviest accumulations. I remember driving around doing last minute Christmas shopping and it was in the mid-upper 30s and heavy rain for quite a while. We might have ended with snow, but it wasn't memorable.

[LakeEffectOH]

I was in Youngstown at the time, so pretty far east from the heaviest accumulations. I remember driving around doing last minute Christmas shopping and it was in the mid-upper 30s and heavy rain for quite a while. We might have ended with snow, but it wasn't memorable.

That makes sense.  I remember a major difference between here and points further south.  On the 24th, I remember driving south to Solon which is only 18 miles from where I live and seeing a lot of ice on the trees and about half the snow on the ground.  There was maybe a trace of ice on the trees around my house.

[knitwx]

For those holding out hope for winter to arrive, bad news.  My snow drop flowers under my apple tree are up and in bud.  They will likely be in full bloom this weekend.  Most years they bloom about 8 weeks before spring weather arrives.  I'll post pics when they are in full bloom.

[Powerball]

I once heard that it is impossible to have a Louisvile to Syracuse track?

 

January 14, 1992...

 

 

 

[Powerball]

For Detroit it would be between Sandusky and Cleveland.

 

Actually, as shown with the above example, a track from the Arklatex region or MO Bootheel to Erie, PA would be ideal.

 

At worst, a track between Cleveland and Erie, PA will work.

 

Any further NW and we'll either have mixing or dry slot issues (I.E. December 11th, 2000).

[Stebo]

Actually, as shown with the above example, a track from the Arklatex region or MO Bootheel to Erie, PA would be ideal.

 

At worst, a track between Cleveland and Erie, PA will work.

 

Any further NW and we'll either have mixing or dry slot issues (I.E. December 11th, 2000).

Depends how cold it is preceding the system, then again we have seen crazy things happen before, case in point the blizzard of 99. I will say a low track west of Sandusky under normal circumstances leads to a potential of mixing.

[snowstormcanuck]

January 14, 1992...

 

 

 

 

Looked that one up. Not a ton of snow at YYZ (about 7"...started as rain and switch to PL/ZR) but once it switched to snow 4 hours of genuine blizzard conditions.

[LakeEffectOH]

For us in NEOH, an Apps tracker headed NNE is definitely the best.

 

More commonly, we have storms coming from the south and west that tend to track either NE (LP moving from TN/KY to Pitt/north WV) or ENE (LP headed from south IN/north KY to Pitt/north WV).  Often with these tracks, we get screwed.

 

Why, well when storms track as described, it is not unusual that by the time the precip shield arrives here, it begins to fall apart in short order because the energy is now getting robbed by a developing coastal.  It seems like this has been happening more over the last 5 years. In these cases, I've seen Chicago & Detroit make out better then we do because of the coastal lows taking over.

 

At least you guys further west are normally safe from East Coast Snow Theft.

[dmc76]

January 14, 1992...

Widespread 9-14" amounts around town. I remember Taylor or Trenton one of those "T" towns downriver measured reported 14". I missed two days of school because of that storm. Even thunder-snow happened that night.

[michsnowfreak]

Widespread 9-14" amounts around town. I remember Taylor or Trenton one of those "T" towns downriver measured 14". I missed two days of school because of that storm. Even thunder-snow happened that night.

I have a few pics from that storm. I am near Trenton and Taylor. 14" seems a good bet, certainly over a foot.

[dmc76]

I have a few pics from that storm. I am near Trenton and Taylor. 14" seems a good bet, certainly over a foot.

That morning local forecasters were going with 2 to 4" by the dinner time it jumped up to 4 to 8" then by 11 pm news the call was 8 to 12" even back then they low balled snowstorms. The storm was done by mid morning. It started in Rochester around 11pm. It was a quick hitter and I'm willing to bet their was several locations with over a foot but at that time you didn't have spotters like you do now obviously. Tons of reports of thunder snow. It definitely was an awesome storm. Powerball would have loved it.

[dmc76]

I have a few pics from that storm. I am near Trenton and Taylor. 14" seems a good bet, certainly over a foot.

I'm not sure if I ever showed this pic it was from that 1974 storm. Apparently 22" fell in Warren according to my family. My grandma is in this pic and she loves winter storms. They say I got it from her.

[SpartyOn]

Except 2013-14 you guys in Detroit and Chicago had historic snowfall seasons, while MKE was a bit above average at 60" and far from historic (and the N/NW suburbs have been consistently doing worse than the airport here the last couple seasons). I have more of a right to complain about below-average snowfall than anyone in the Chicago or Detroit metros. Most other cities in the Midwest do as well.

Minneapolis is in the ultimate rut though compared to other Midwest cities. MSP posters could complain all day and I wouldn't blame them.

Lol.

[TugHillMatt]

Your right. Then it would be more favorable for Indy -> Findlay -> Cleveland then. not here. I would be on the edge of the precip. Josh (michigansnowfreak) which is about 55-60 miles south would get a few inches from that track. He would even be on the northern edge.

A favorable track for MBY would be Indianapolis to just west of Sandusky...basically in between Toledo and Sandusky more toward Sandusky. For Detroit it would be between Sandusky and Cleveland.

 

In winters like this one where it's hard to come by cold temperatures with Low pressures, you need that track farther southeast.