Stebo Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Well, the first 2 weeks of the month don't support that.. plus, they trend colder in the later periods. It could be above normal, sure. I don't think it will be anywhere as close to above normal as that shows. The first 2 weeks do support the dry part of the solution, unless you are near and downwind of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Last few CFS runs prior to this morning were AOB average for about I-80 southward. I'll be interested to see tomorrow's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Last few CFS runs prior to this morning were AOB average for about I-80 southward. I'll be interested to see tomorrow's run.CFS weeklies still show a normal to slightly colder than normal Jan thru week 4 (tropical tidbits) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Interesting that the 2m temp anomalies map from Tropical Tidbits for the whole month of January turns out like this. Precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This map seems like it underestimates what has fallen in some areas, but posting it to show what a disaster it's been so far in the southern/eastern sections of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 With regard to the map above. I'm running at about 180%. There definitely should be more blues over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Said in Jeff Foxworthy's voice You know you're having a sh-tty winter, when you just had your biggest snowstorm of the last 25 years and yet -- your running a seasonal deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Said in Jeff Foxworthy's voice You know you're having a sh-tty winter, when you just had your biggest snowstorm of the last 25 years and yet -- your running a seasonal deficit. that is pretty rough....but there's always someone in worse shape. Exhibit B, Columbus OH - About ready to beat our latest first measurable snow record, and there's still no snow in sight on the LR models. We aren't just going to beat the record, we are going to CRUSH it. Even '97-'98 was more severe up to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The cancel winter guys have been spot on so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This map seems like it underestimates what has fallen in some areas, but posting it to show what a disaster it's been so far in the southern/eastern sections of the region. percentsnow.png Wonder how accurate it is for other areas. DTW is 70% of normal to date (7.5" vs normal 10.8") but that map has 25-50%. They are close to the 50-75% line though. Don't think anyone in SE MI is under 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Said in Jeff Foxworthy's voice You know you're having a sh-tty winter, when you just had your biggest snowstorm of the last 25 years and yet -- your running a seasonal deficit. Unofficially you are probably at 18-19" or so to date. No way is that below normal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 This map seems like it underestimates what has fallen in some areas, but posting it to show what a disaster it's been so far in the southern/eastern sections of the region. percentsnow.png would be a lot more pink and red on that map if it weren't for that freak november storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 would be a lot more pink and red on that map if it weren't for that freak november storm. Well I wouldn't have had any snow last winter if it wasn't for the snow that fell last winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm having flash backs of winter in the low country. No fall, occasional flurries, temps from the 60's dropping to the 30's with cold rain then dry dreary countless days of 30's and 20's, then 60's, then cold rain, then repeat. If it wasn't for the Nov. surprise 3 incher I'd instictivly be heading out to Sullivans Island on New Years Day for the annual Polar Bear swim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Well I wouldn't have had any snow last winter if it wasn't for the snow that fell last winter. lol ....and I wouldn't we be staring down the barrel of a latest first measurable snow record....if it had snowed even a tenth of an inch yet. lol So maybe that's a silly thing to bring up as well. Yea, I see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Forecast the last three days has been for clear and sunny, yet it's been nearly 100% overcast (about 20 minutes of sun this morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Forecast the last three days has been for clear and sunny, yet it's been nearly 100% overcast (about 20 minutes of sun this morning). Yep, it seems that trapped low level moisture leads to forecast busts a lot this time of year. I've actually been getting light snow off and on since about 10 this morning. No accumulation, just skiffs of snow blowing across the pavement and lining the curbs. Had a partly cloudy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I laugh at APX posting a wwa for the Manistee Co. area for 8" of les. Around here, 8" would be a full-blown winter storm with the bread aisles cleared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I laugh at APX posting a wwa for the Manistee Co. area for 8" of les. Around here, 8" would be a full-blown winter storm with the bread aisles cleared out. Speaking of clearing out the aisles, just passed the 17th anniversary of the Blizzard of '99. I remember what the stores were like on the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Someone want to elaborate on the idea of brutal cold coming. Because I just don't see it coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I laugh at APX posting a wwa for the Manistee Co. area for 8" of les. Around here, 8" would be a full-blown winter storm with the bread aisles cleared out. Haha Around here it seems like it takes 12"+ with blowing and drifting wording to get people running to the store. There was some nearly bare shelves before that big November storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I laugh at APX posting a wwa for the Manistee Co. area for 8" of les. Around here, 8" would be a full-blown winter storm with the bread aisles cleared out. It's a different ball game up there. I was just up in that area 6-7" fell New Year's Day... No headline, no nothing. Life just keeps going and the locals drive like crazy in the snow. Better get out of their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's a different ball game up there. I was just up in that area 6-7" fell New Year's Day... No headline, no nothing. Life just keeps going and the locals drive like crazy in the snow. Better get out of their way.Which is which I didn't understand Marquette being warned for 4-8" last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Someone want to elaborate on the idea of brutal cold coming. Because I just don't see it coming to fruition. Single digit high temps. Lows will go below zero if we have snow. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Single digit high temps. Lows will go below zero if we have snow. Good stuff. And it's all in fantasy world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Which is which I didn't understand Marquette being warned for 4-8" last week. This LES event isn't expected to produce near-blizzard conditions, unlike the storm that impacted Marquette last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's a different ball game up there. I was just up in that area 6-7" fell New Year's Day... No headline, no nothing. Life just keeps going and the locals drive like crazy in the snow. Better get out of their way. You are correct, it takes a lot more than 6" to really bother anyone up here, but I have never really seen locals drive to bad in my past few years living up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This LES event isn't expected to produce near-blizzard conditions, unlike the storm that impacted Marquette last week. Correct, nowhere near the wind potential, but still don't understand why every other NWS went with LES advisories and APX issues winter weather???? Should be a LES advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You are correct, it takes a lot more than 6" to really bother anyone up here, but I have never really seen locals drive to bad in my past few years living up here. They don't drive bad. Just confident and very experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 They don't drive bad. Just confident and very experienced. i would concur with that, driving on snow4/5+ months out of the year helps When I lived downstate in jackson, we woudl get only a inch or 2 and cars would be in ditches all over espcially on i94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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