buckeye Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It could... but typically el nino effects lessen with each DJF month. December seems most prone to being screwed by a bad pattern in any ENSO setup. Some of the models (euro) are hinting that the mjo might go into phase 7, long range...IF that happens that might be the first good news indicator in awhile. Although I read in another thread where Wes, (in the MA forum), posted data that the mjo is a terrible indicator during strong El Nino's. So who knows. I guess all you can do at this point is 10 days at a time....and right now the next 10 days suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Where is winter?? This weather pattern is absolutely unacceptable...and to add insult to injury, the warministas, severe weather junkies, and climo screamers are all over the place on the board. I guess it's no longer PC to want it to be wintry in the winter. Nothing personal...but come on...why is it so much to ask to have consistent winter-like weather in DJF? In JJA it pretty much always feels like summer...and it is maddening to need the pattern to be a certain way to deliver cold and snow. It should be cold and snowy simply because it's winter - we shouldn't need a "good pattern" to see cold and snow. One person mentioned that it has been too long since a good severe weather outbreak has occurred in the winter...and by "too long", they meant 2 winters ago. Really??? There should never be severe weather in the winter - if it occurred once every 50 years, that would be too often. You don't see winter lovers reminding everyone else how great it would be to go an entire year without severe weather or hurricanes. And don't mention that these types of crappy patterns can occur in the winter, i.e. "it's just climo". I'm seeing posts saying "don't worry, it's only Dec 21 and there's still 3 months of snow chances to go". That does not matter. And, some say "there's no way we'll get shut out for the rest of Dec and Jan"...or "it's still possible to get a solid 3-week period of winter"...as if that is supposed to make one feel better?? People have a ridiculously low bar for winter on this board. It's unacceptable to get "shut out" from snow and cold for one week during DJF, much less 6 weeks. If we have a climo winter here, it would get a grade of D. 38" of snow (only 30" in DJF) with numerous days in the 30s and 40s during DJF is not a wintry climate. I keep getting incessantly reminded on this board how good the past 2 winters were...but honestly, that is how winter should be. It's nothing extraordinary. Last winter wasn't really that great, as winter was pretty much nowhere to be found during December. I would give it a B- at best, as you can't lose one month of the winter and say it was great, even though Jan and Feb were solid. On top of this, all I hear from the media is how great this winter has been. Whatever - it's all PC crap anyway...making Joe Sixpack feel better because he can have a better life due to it being warmer...or something like that. The media and public can't have it both ways - they complain about how "bad" winters are in Chicago (even though we hardly ever go below zero and only average one 6"+ snowstorm per winter), yet they also complain when we happen to get a good storm or cold outbreak. They have no clue what winter can be like in the UP, North Dakota, Maine, Alaska, or Canada. It's a lonely place being a winter lover around here...but what are you going to do?? The board was better several years ago, when everyone would share the misery together and reminisce about past winters. Today, you can't complain once about the pattern without getting surrounded by warministas and others saying that it's climo, or how the whining makes the board unreadable. On the contrary - I would say that people hoping for a torch anytime during DJF makes the board unreadable - you can enjoy torches for the other 9 months of the year. The whole idea seems ridiculous to me, as you don't see me or other winter lovers hoping for devastating freezes and miserable weather in July. Just let people wish for winter during winter...it's only 3 months out of 12. If you read the NE and Central/Western forums, they at least have hope and can freely express their frustrations without getting run over by warministas. There are some true weenies over there; that is a compliment. As I sit here with a pouring rain and temps near 45 during the early morning of the shortest day of the year...what else can I say?? It's a joke. This is the time of year when winter should be most fierce (long nights, low sun angle, etc.), yet it's pouring rain. You should at least be able to count on Dec 15 - Feb 15 for deep winter - but apparently nothing is guaranteed. There's just no way to rationalize it, when you see record highs in Chicago in the 50s-60s even in January. It should never get that warm in the coldest month of the year. All we can hope for is a 1985-like turnaround...where is was 69 degrees on 12/29/84, only to see the pattern abruptly change, leading to Chicago's all-time record low of -27 on 1/20/85. I'm not asking for the arctic tundra - just consistent winter-like weather during winter. So far this season (and most likely through 12/31 or longer), we've had 4 days of winter-like weather; that's it. Winter-like weather means snow on the ground with a high temp of 32 or colder. And some places to the north have had even fewer days...it's frustrating to no end. Again - absolutely nothing personal towards anyone by what I'm saying. It's not about that at all. I simply wish that people could relate to what it's like to anticipate winter, hope for winter, and enjoy winter - and see it disappoint time and time again. Just let seasons be seasons. Not looking for replies or anything - just venting with my fellow weenies, if they even exist anymore. It won't change the weather anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's been 295 days since the last time an inch of snow has fallen here, but who's counting! That number should grow well into the 300s. I think there's been more salt accumulation on the roads and sidewalks this season than actual snow and that isn't sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 AND....Back to muddy paws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Hey, if you are gonna vent, what better place than AmWx... We feel for you. I'm going to drive to Elkhart, Indiana tomorrow to spend $8000 on a snowmobile trailer and there isn't anywhere to ride on the first day of winter. By anywhere, I mean east of the Rockies and as far north as the boreal forests of Ontario. $8000 trailer, $2000 in winter gear $10,000 in sled. 25 miles of riding as of 12-21-2015 this year. Granted, I'll get my chances and next year will be better. But, yea... not cool. Flip side, financially it has helped me out that it has been warm.... So there is a silver lining there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Oh yea, and I hope the storm system ends up being stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's been 295 days since the last time an inch of snow has fallen here, but who's counting! That number should grow well into the 300s. I think there's been more salt accumulation on the roads and sidewalks this season than actual snow and that isn't sarcasm. I have slipped and fell on loose salt more than twice in my life. Irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Oh yea, and I hope the storm system ends up being stratiform rain. i just hope the severe storms don't knock my power out for too long i'm sure i'll have a few new video games that i'll want to be playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 i just hope the severe storms don't knock my power out for too long i'm sure i'll have a few new video games that i'll want to be playing I have a few for the kids and I'm really contemplating an XBox one. With the reduced spending on snowmobiling this winter, I don't have as much guilt about plunking down $300 for the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That meltdown was A material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Hey, if you are gonna vent, what better place than AmWx... We feel for you. I'm going to drive to Elkhart, Indiana tomorrow to spend $8000 on a snowmobile trailer and there isn't anywhere to ride on the first day of winter. By anywhere, I mean east of the Rockies and as far north as the boreal forests of Ontario. $8000 trailer, $2000 in winter gear $10,000 in sled. 25 miles of riding as of 12-21-2015 this year. Granted, I'll get my chances and next year will be better. But, yea... not cool. Flip side, financially it has helped me out that it has been warm.... So there is a silver lining there. I feel your pain snowmobiling is the biggest hobby expense wise I know for how little enjoyment/time you actually have. Then though in sh$# years like this year it makes you rethink your choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What I wouldn't give to have one of these happen this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That meltdown was A material. Top notch civilized meltdown. SOMETIMES PEOPLE TOTALLY LOSE IT AND CAPITALIZE EVERYTHING AND USE A BUNCH OF ******** WORDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 AND....Back to muddy pawscould get a lot muddier this weekend unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I do enjoy a good snowstorm, but part of me hopes we torch all winter just to see some complete meltdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 As long as we keep getting severe weather instead of boring rain, I won't have a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 As long as we keep getting severe weather instead of boring rain, I won't have a meltdown. The thing with severe is that its days of following... the storm blows through in 20 minutes and that's it. It's not like you can enjoy the aftermath of the storm. It's cool for 20 minutes, but the pattern required to get that 20 minutes isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I do enjoy a good snowstorm, but part of me hopes we torch all winter just to see some complete meltdowns. Then you are trolling the primary audience of this subforum. It's like going on an NBA forum and rooting for a season ending lockout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's only the first day of winter though... (not to mention, a lot of the *****ing is coming from folks who had a very nice November snowstorm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Then you are trolling the primary audience of this subforum. It's like going on an NBA forum and rooting for a season ending lockout. That's kind of the point... Don't get me wrong, I want some snow as well, but the meltdowns would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I find it odd that some are melting down, while still being positive in snow anomalies for the year. Especially anyone in Chicago's area or NW of Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Nice meltdown rant Beavis! I think this winter has more surprises still - and not mild related. Snowstorm in November still is holding me over, but the rain is definitely getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I find it odd that some are melting down, while still being positive in snow anomalies for the year. Especially anyone in Chicago's area or NW of Detroit. Because having snow for 3 days in mid November doesn't make up for unfrozen lakes, no skiing, sledding, snowmobiling, ice fishing or anything traditionally common to this area of the country through mid January. I don't follow winter weather for a sig line statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I find it odd that some are melting down, while still being positive in snow anomalies for the year. Especially anyone in Chicago's area or NW of Detroit. Plus December was expected to be mild...it's just been mild on steroids. Did some checking and found that it would take until January 10 for Chicago to drop below average in snowfall if there's no more measurable snow between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 BTW, if anyone is frustrated because this winter isn't behaving (or they were expecting a winter) like: *2007-2008 *2008-2009 *2010-2011 *2013-2014 *2014-2015 Their expectations need to be adjusted or they're going to be sorely disappointed. Those were all once-in-100+ year winters. Quite frankly, winter lovers should consider it a blessing from mother nature that they all happened back-to-back from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The only thing that might be worse than the sound of thunder this time of year is the sound of your sump pump running all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I find it odd that some are melting down, while still being positive in snow anomalies for the year. Especially anyone in Chicago's area or NW of Detroit. This may be the weakest point I've read on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This may be the weakest point I've read on this board. Who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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