Powerball Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 By the way, mark me down for wanting to do away with Lake Effect Warnings/advisories. The only difference between them and normal warnings/advisories are the origin of the snow. The impacts are just as great and in some instances greater. Simplification of the warning products would go a long way in this instance. I tend to agree with OHweather and Hoosier, but for a different reason. Not using what should be the proper headlines only to push whatever agenda you have is plain childish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 By the way, mark me down for wanting to do away with Lake Effect Warnings/advisories. The only difference between them and normal warnings/advisories are the origin of the snow. The impacts are just as great and in some instances greater. Simplification of the warning products would go a long way in this instance. I think the Lake Effect product gives the NWS team more error margin with the general public. We all know that LES can vary over a short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I tend to agree with OHweather and Hoosier, but for a different reason. Not using what should be the proper headlines only to push whatever agenda you have is plain childish. Well I do agree they should be used if they are there to be used, I just think simplifying the process is better because in the end snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 The 0z GFS was a complete suicide run. Yup... I'm rubbing my passport right now. Gonna need this bad boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 On the discussion of lake effect snow headlines. The thing about lake effect snow is that you can be in a white out in one location and a few miles away it can be clear. Lake effect snow comes in waves, when you have a big synoptic storm, your usually in it for awhile - unless your in a wide plume that is stationary. I've always seen a lake effect snow warning as a harbinger of heavy snow with white out conditions at times. You don't necessarily get that in a normal winter storm. I think at least on the west side of Lake Michigan offices should keep those headlines, since we don't get those kinds of events very often - at least not in pure form (lake enhancement). ...Maybe they should bring back the heavy snow warning headline/product and replace that with the lake effect snow warnings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 My biggest beef is that GRR (and with this past event, APX too, although up to this point APX has still issued LES headlines) is issuing winter weather headlines instead of LES headlines when LES headlines are still available/supposed to be issued, and when other Great Lakes offices issue them. This is regardless of what you think of LES headlines in general. It's like issuing a flood warning instead of a flash flood warning...yes they're similar in that they both deal with flooding, but a flash flood warning has very different meaning, and I don't see offices just issuing flood warnings to "keep it simple" when there's a flash flood situation. Maybe that's a bad analogy but it's the best I could think of on the fly. Maybe I just like LES and that biases me, and I certainly see the need for some simplification...consolidating a snow advisory, snow and blowing snow advisory and winter weather advisory just into a winter weather advisory last decade was a good move IMO. I can see the argument that "snow is snow" at the end of the day, although the points I brought up earlier and that Geos just referenced are my arguments for why LES headlines should be kept. On the other hand, I can see the argument that we've already consolidated the vast majority of old winter weather headlines into a just a few, so why are LES headlines immune? I guess it boils down to: Do LES headlines help the public, road crews and local governments better prepare for LES? Do LES headlines add confusion? Is the benefit greater than the confusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 My biggest beef is that GRR (and with this past event, APX too, although up to this point APX has still issued LES headlines) is issuing winter weather headlines instead of LES headlines when LES headlines are still available/supposed to be issued, and when other Great Lakes offices issue them. This is regardless of what you think of LES headlines in general. It's like issuing a flood warning instead of a flash flood warning...yes they're similar in that they both deal with flooding, but a flash flood warning has very different meaning, and I don't see offices just issuing flood warnings to "keep it simple" when there's a flash flood situation. Maybe that's a bad analogy but it's the best I could think of on the fly. Maybe I just like LES and that biases me, and I certainly see the need for some simplification...consolidating a snow advisory, snow and blowing snow advisory and winter weather advisory just into a winter weather advisory last decade was a good move IMO. I can see the argument that "snow is snow" at the end of the day, although the points I brought up earlier and that Geos just referenced are my arguments for why LES headlines should be kept. On the other hand, I can see the argument that we've already consolidated the vast majority of old winter weather headlines into a just a few, so why are LES headlines immune? I guess it boils down to: Do LES headlines help the public, road crews and local governments better prepare for LES? Do LES headlines add confusion? Is the benefit greater than the confusion? I have wondered if them failing to issue LES headlines when we had that huge pile up on i-94 played a part in that accident? With LES headlines *most* know to expect squally weather with blinding snow ( whiteouts ) at times and that was conditions we had here when that huge accident occurred? Everyone was flying at normal speed down i-94 when they hit the whiteout? Very few things this office does makes any sense when it comes to winter headlines. I was surprised we had a decent lead time with the advisory as it is very common for them to be way behind and in catch up mode. They are pretty stellar when it comes to their own backyard in/around the Grand Rapids area but slack off big time especially down here along the i-94 corridor where a number of people have wanted IWX to assume responsibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 GRR has had a lot of flubs lately with their headlines. As some folks recall, they actually rode out GHD 2015 (that dumped 12-20" across Southern MI) with a Winter Weather Advisory. Even average joes were chewing them out over that one on their social media pages. that was absolutely ridiculous. Didnt they upgrade like the last hour lol? They did after a few lit into them on their facebook page. I got banned ( as did a few others ) from their page for telling them they needed to fire the one who issued the headlines which was someone who goes by the handle 93. 93 has not been heard from since then. Guess is they changed their handle as some new number appeared not long after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 There is a big difference in getting blinding 1-2" per hr snow squals than a general 6" in 24 hours that is winter weather advisory criteria. Not to mention in most cases, only a small localized part of the county even gets close to that criteria. For example I got about 6 inches, about 15 miles to my east still in otsego county received about 1-2 inches at most near lewiston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Important point Josh. I know for at least me personally, I am a less likely to go out and travel in a LES warning then a Winter weather advisory or even a winter storm warning - even if the trip is short. I know when a heavy snow warning was issued, I would stay home or get home, because I knew a lot of snow was coming down in a short period of time. Definitions: http://cnycentral.com/news/local/watch-vs-warning-vs-advisory---whats-the-difference?id=274613 15) LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING This is issued when heavy lake effect snow is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring within the next 12 hours. The snow is expected to accumulate at least 7 inches with strong winds producing much high drifts. This is similar to a Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow, except Great Lakes induced squalls/showers occur in narrow bands and over limited areas. Lake effect snow squalls/showers can occur quite suddenly and cause blizzard-like conditions. 16) LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY A Lake Effect Snow Advisory is issued for Great Lakes induced snowfall in western and central New York totaling between 4 and 7 inches in a 12 hour period. Blowing and drifting snow is also common in relatively limited areas and in narrow bands. I think both headlines are good, because it tells people what to expect. In either case if you live in a county with either headline, you could get hit or largely missed. Probably especially good for travelers to be prepared for lake effect snow conditions at any time and it could get as bad as blizzard conditions for a time in a LES warning - a pretty important thing to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I have wondered if them failing to issue LES headlines when we had that huge pile up on i-94 played a part in that accident? With LES headlines *most* know to expect squally weather with blinding snow ( whiteouts ) at times and that was conditions we had here when that huge accident occurred? Everyone was flying at normal speed down i-94 when they hit the whiteout? Very few things this office does makes any sense when it comes to winter headlines. I was surprised we had a decent lead time with the advisory as it is very common for them to be way behind and in catch up mode. They are pretty stellar when it comes to their own backyard in/around the Grand Rapids area but slack off big time especially down here along the i-94 corridor where a number of people have wanted IWX to assume responsibility. Didn't the same thing happen last year that resulted in a huge pile up or was that the year before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Didn't the same thing happen last year that resulted in a huge pile up or was that the year before. The 100+ car/truck pile up? That is the one i was referring to. Has been others but nothing like that of course. Here in Calhoun we didn't even have any headlines while Kalamazoo had the wwa. The accident was right at the county line. You wont ever ( better be a dire emergency ) catch me on i-94 when LES is in the cards/happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 The 100+ car/truck pile up? That is the one i was referring to. Has been others but nothing like that of course. Here in Calhoun we didn't even have any headlines while Kalamazoo had the wwa. You wont ever ( better be a dire emergency ) catch me on i-94 when LES is in the cards/happening. I've been on I-94 in MI a few times while chasing LES...I figured maybe it wouldn't be that bad since LES is pretty common there. Wrong answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I've been caught in some heavy lake effect snow along the lake in Milwaukee before on the highway and one time in the UP, just east of Marquette. Not fun when can't see more than a couple car lengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I've been on I-94 in MI a few times while chasing LES...I figured maybe it wouldn't be that bad since LES is pretty common there. Wrong answer. The edge of the heavier stuff ( les ) is usually in the area between i-69 and 131 and i think it catches people off guard which causes alot of these accidents. Here is the study they did about the huge pile up. http://www.battlecreekenquirer.com/story/news/local/2015/11/30/weather-safety-changes-proposed-after--94-crash-study/76574664/?from=global&sessionKey=XMVWx2Blt6gg5IwRgrcxxJ2xxmsCQ0UoXnC8-18x2dz9N1x2FQx2F46UdIrP47rpSoHQx3Dx3DKbyQC9bwF7Rdxx9Lk03GYYAx3Dx3D-kh1H480KYwAHbhZBKab1x2Fgx3Dx3D-4UvXaHD2CnS8tZQAfCoCeQx3Dx3D&autologin=H3cfMdCmA7X7ZPoQf0BoQGrYQu3vcIAqMbb6mXbPQfIIC9okb8AwmQx3Dx3D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I've been on I-94 in MI a few times while chasing LES...I figured maybe it wouldn't be that bad since LES is pretty common there. Wrong answer.Like all the people who took LSD on GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 If I hear a single rumble of thunder this week, I'll get sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Now this is where I want to spend my retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Can't wait for our chance of thunderstorms this week, going to be pretty awesome especially since I work Wednesday Evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 If I hear a single rumble of thunder this week, I'll get sick. I second that. That video made me cold just watching it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Now this is where I want to spend my retirement. I watched the whole thing... have fun with that ! slow night in the north woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Now this is where I want to spend my retirement. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KInXvWoq9U I love how the locals just seem so immune to the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I love how the locals just seem so immune to the coldI work in freezers, it has to be pretty cold to bother me when I have a decent coat on. I actually like snowmobiling around 5-10F. I like the way my carbides dig into the snowpack.We rode last year at -20F... outside SSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 If I hear a single rumble of thunder this week, I'll get sick. Well, the Euro's one run that some jumped on which showed 70F on Christmas day will be about 25F too warm...but it will not be a white Christmas. I love Christmas, so while it sucks to not have snow, it doesnt ruin Christmas...but thunderstorms do NOTHING for me from Oct til May. Hope we get no thunder. Those that are excited about it, fine....but I better not hear one negative word towards those who follow late Mar/Apr snow threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well, the Euro's one run that some jumped on which showed 70F on Christmas day will be about 25F too warm...but it will not be a white Christmas. I love Christmas, so while it sucks to not have snow, it doesnt ruin Christmas...but thunderstorms do NOTHING for me from Oct til May. Hope we get no thunder. Those that are excited about it, fine....but I better not hear one negative word towards those who follow late Mar/Apr snow threats It just blows that the warmth is so far north too. Usually the western UP or... hell... Canada north of 47 is guaranteed, but not this year. They have snow up there, but it's about to get hit with ZR twice over the next 2 weeks. Check out Hearst Ontario... Average high is like 12 degrees and they are going to be battling rain TWICE over the next two weeks. F this Jetstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well, the Euro's one run that some jumped on which showed 70F on Christmas day will be about 25F too warm...but it will not be a white Christmas. I love Christmas, so while it sucks to not have snow, it doesnt ruin Christmas...but thunderstorms do NOTHING for me from Oct til May. Hope we get no thunder. Those that are excited about it, fine....but I better not hear one negative word towards those who follow late Mar/Apr snow threats I can count the number of times on one hand that I've heard thunder in the winter time. So I don't think you guys have to worry too much about that happening, even with record-breaking warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'd like for the 00z Euro to be on repeat all the way to June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The possibility of a pisser January is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I can count the number of times on one hand that I've heard thunder in the winter time. So I don't think you guys have to worry too much about that happening, even with record-breaking warmth. And usually that thunder is with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The possibility of a pisser January is high. It could... but typically el nino effects lessen with each DJF month. December seems most prone to being screwed by a bad pattern in any ENSO setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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