Ian Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I wouldn't write off a couple shots cold enough to frost the western burbs in the next 2 weeks. Ops may not have it look easy right now but the lw pattern looks pretty decent. Northern and Central Canada should have no problem generating some cold air. Just gotta get a clean push or 2 down here. Euro has some good cold at D10 looking to dump in but it also had the 0c 850 in our hood yesterday. Even a normal airmass becomes more supportive of freeze in two weeks out west so there's that. I doubt it's wall to wall warm per se but it might be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Day 3 marginal risk from SPC.And if "torching" means 70s and not 80s I'm fine with that.......for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 56 with clouds 52 for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'm looking forward to a relatively warm October-November. It's a great time to go above normal. And since we're more likely than not to have lingering cold into late winter/early spring, then there's no need to rush into it too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'm looking forward to a relatively warm October-November. It's a great time to go above normal. And since we're more likely than not to have lingering cold into late winter/early spring, then there's no need to rush into it too early. As long as the precip shows up, I won't lose any sleep over it. Nothing worse than a dryish Nino...not that I'm expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Euro has some good cold at D10 looking to dump in but it also had the 0c 850 in our hood yesterday. Even a normal airmass becomes more supportive of freeze in two weeks out west so there's that. I doubt it's wall to wall warm per se but it might be close. Looks like the next 2 weeks will probably end up just on the warm side of average but at least it's not because we are stuck in a warm pattern. Typical fall ups and downs. Last night's Euro ens showing a decent d10-15 pattern for cool cool shots. Could be a mirage that keeps getting pushed back in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I need one nor'ester to get my blood flowing, rain or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not like it really matters that much anyway. If the last two years taught us anything it's that we can punt anything before Christmas without much worry. Little doubt winter will try to linger this year.. hopefully Dec isn't warm and rainy. That is not good news. Give me a Dec-Feb winter........and move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Why the belief / worry that winter will "hang-on" and "linger"? The last time we had a nino the winter switch got turned off pretty darn abruptly at the end of Feb. Then the summer switch got turned on immediately at the start of April. That is what I'm worrying about. Today is too warm, especially in the sun. Can't wait for this weekend's weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Nice +pna/-epo/-ao.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Nice +pna/-epo/-ao.... This looks great! Bit early to be too excited, but could be frosty for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 ^^^^ First frost. edit: darn you, midatlanticweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 This looks great! Bit early to be too excited, but could be frosty for sure! GFS is similar. Ensembles generally support the idea. I'm sticking with my IAD first freeze idea between the 15th-20th. Canada will have no problem building up some cold high pressure with that kind of pattern. Of course I hope I'm wrong because it would put a hurting on my first freeze contest guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 ^^^^ First frost. edit: darn you, midatlanticweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 GFS is similar. Ensembles generally support the idea. I'm sticking with my IAD first freeze idea between the 15th-20th. Canada will have no problem building up some cold high pressure with that kind of pattern. Of course I hope I'm wrong because it would put a hurting on my first freeze contest guesses. Given the current progs around D10, I think IAD's got a pretty good shot at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 After careful consideration of the global models and their ensembles, I've determined that the first freeze will occur at IAD and BWI on 10/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Colorful sky tonight http://www.nasa.gov/feature/wednesday-rocket-launch-to-be-visible-along-mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Colorful sky tonight http://www.nasa.gov/feature/wednesday-rocket-launch-to-be-visible-along-mid-atlantic The little green dot was the only thing that was visible from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I think I might get a freeze in WV Sunday morning as long as the clouds don't linger. #winner #orsecondwinnertojonjon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Back to our regularly scheduled program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Back to our regularly scheduled program Ninas. Gotta hate 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Had a 30 second downpour about a half hour ago. Then a quick morning rainbow. Mostly cloudy and 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Mega Fog and 60 this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Had a 30 second downpour about a half hour ago. Then a quick morning rainbow. Mostly cloudy and 63. Saw lots of rainbow pics on facebook from my Pasadena friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Had a 30 second downpour about a half hour ago. Then a quick morning rainbow. Mostly cloudy and 63. Yeah, we had some thunder with the brief downpour, but I missed the rainbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 There was a November in the late 80s, maybe '89, that had a big severe day near the end of the month. Got a cracking thunderstorm in Baltimore around 8 or 9 in the evening. November 1989 derecho? It also mentions the 16th as having more widespread severe weather, if not as intense. I don't think I'd care to see an 85mph gust here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Heavy fog early this am, been raining for last hour now, looks like .03-.04 in CoCoRaHS gauge looking at it from the window. Temp is 58.1 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Very brief shower, dampened the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I remember the 11/20/89 event well. I had just returned to my home in central NJ for Thanksgiving break, and I saw that a severe t'storm watch had been issued for my area. If one looked at the radar, the immediate reaction would have been puzzlement, as it looked like a weak line of showers approaching. The SPC recap page notes that the cloud tops were under 20,000 ft. But when it arrived, wow. The showers were light, and I maybe saw one flash of distant lightning, but the winds were amazing. 30 hours later, a wave moved up the front that caused this derecho event, and that wave gave us a 6" snowfall early Thanksgiving morning. As that article notes, there was an even worse severe event a few days earlier featuring the deadly Huntsville tornado. There were multiple tornadoes in the morning in NJ/NY (and one on the MD eastern shore and another near Harpers Ferry) with embedded supercells in a squall line. One did serious damage near my family's home in the Trenton area. A microburst associated with this event also caused the horrific school wall collapse near Newburgh, NY. November 1989 derecho? It also mentions the 16th as having more widespread severe weather, if not as intense. I don't think I'd care to see an 85mph gust here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Filling in for Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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