WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 What a perfect autumn day. Looking forward to more of this. 384hr 12z GFS had a 'cane moving into the Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 What a perfect autumn day. Looking forward to more of this. 384hr 12z GFS had a 'cane moving into the Bay Pattern looks great. It's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Quite a bit of a hint at some potential for southern Caribbean storm formation. Not common for Nino usually but a climo favored zone for Oct. Pretty hard to get those to hit us as a hurricane. Transitioning into a nor'easter or some such perhaps. Euro ens seems to have some hint of something late but not very strong so perhaps a few members are seeing it. For some reason the postage stamps on wxbell are only out to day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Quite a bit of a hint at some potential for southern Caribbean storm formation. Not common for Nino usually but a climo favored zone for Oct. Pretty hard to get those to hit us as a hurricane. Transitioning into a nor'easter or some such perhaps. Euro ens seems to have some hint of something late but not very strong so perhaps a few members are seeing it. For some reason the postage stamps on wxbell are only out to day 10.Yep, I know you saw it on the GFS. If it's still there in 10 days I'll suggest to NCEP that they do an unscheduled maintenance check and just shut the GFS down until it passes. Nobody will miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 It's all over the GEFS and has been since yesterday. Literally almost unanimous agreement near Belize in about 8-10 days, moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Quite a bit of a hint at some potential for southern Caribbean storm formation. Not common for Nino usually but a climo favored zone for Oct. Pretty hard to get those to hit us as a hurricane. Transitioning into a nor'easter or some such perhaps. Euro ens seems to have some hint of something late but not very strong so perhaps a few members are seeing it. For some reason the postage stamps on wxbell are only out to day 10. Hopefully if it's not a hurricane, it's a blizzard. Crappy time a year for both though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Quite a bit of a hint at some potential for southern Caribbean storm formation. Not common for Nino usually but a climo favored zone for Oct. Pretty hard to get those to hit us as a hurricane. Transitioning into a nor'easter or some such perhaps. Euro ens seems to have some hint of something late but not very strong so perhaps a few members are seeing it. For some reason the postage stamps on wxbell are only out to day 10. Hopefully if it's not a hurricane, it's a blizzard. Crappy time a year for both though. I could go for a Wilma repeat........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I could go for a Wilma repeat........ Nogaps is overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 41 beautiful degrees. Great start to Tuesday. Upper 30s out west and Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Made it to 42 but I am back up to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 low of 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Low of 41F. Surprisingly low. Coldest of the season, obviously. Terrific morning and last evening. Too bad, though, it didn't occur on the weekend, perfect outdoor weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Got down to 45. Could see my breath outside, first morning like that of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Low of 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 50F Not really surprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Hit 40 in Nokesville on the farm...horses loved it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Cold enough for lots of river and pond fog this morning. Love this time of year. Nothing beats October (except Dec. snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 47 beautiful degrees this morning. This weather should start bringing out some nice color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 SPC Day 4 talks about a marginal svr threat in the mid-Atlantic Friday, and the 12z guidance reaffirms the idea. Moderately strong cold front moves through during the favorable time of day with maybe 1000 cape and modest shear. Possible coupling of upper level jet streaks. Ultimately, the lack of better instability will likely eliminate a major svr threat, but at least the potential of a gusty line of storms seems to be on the table (barring a change in the frontal timing). And hey, if I can get an EFO go almost through my backyard last Tuesday evening with even less instability, imagine what I can do with 1000 cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 72 with spectacular blue sky. Hard to root for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 SPC Day 4 talks about a marginal svr threat in the mid-Atlantic Friday, and the 12z guidance reaffirms the idea. Moderately strong cold front moves through during the favorable time of day with maybe 1000 cape and modest shear. Possible coupling of upper level jet streaks. Ultimately, the lack of better instability will likely eliminate a major svr threat, but at least the potential of a gusty line of storms seems to be on the table (barring a change in the frontal timing). And hey, if I can get an EFO go almost through my backyard last Tuesday evening with even less instability, imagine what I can do with 1000 cape. Yup. We aren't done with the rumbles of thunder yet if models are correct this far out. Here's what WSI's RPM has for Friday morning around 11 AM. CAPE and incoming cold front. Could be exciting for some around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 we've gotten decent storms in the fall before -- i recall a november day few years ago where a front moved through early morning with some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Wasn't there a severe day in the middle of winter in 2014? I remember waking up to a TOR watch lol. Yes, right after Valentine's Day I believe. It didn't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Wasn't there a severe day in the middle of winter in 2014? I remember waking up to a TOR watch lol. I remember a big severe day in late January 2013. It was in the 70s and I believe we were in a tornado watch. I was thinking to myself, "Is it January or May?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not so sure about the mid-month 'cold'.. well, do think there is probably a window for a cold morning or two but otherwise eh. Everything but a random op run or two looks warm forever for now. I do tend to think we mostly torch thru Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not so sure about the mid-month 'cold'.. well, do think there is probably a window for a cold morning or two but otherwise eh. Everything but a random op run or two looks warm forever for now. I do tend to think we mostly torch thru Dec.I saw HM's tweet today that the Euro weeklies don't look cold. I'm pretty numb about this fall and will be pleasantly shocked if we don't torch through Novie. Even 11/09 was warm and then things changed quickly after Thanksgiving, so it's too early to write off December...but hope is "thin" in light of the seasonal guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 There was a November in the late 80s, maybe '89, that had a big severe day near the end of the month. Got a cracking thunderstorm in Baltimore around 8 or 9 in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I wouldn't write off a couple shots cold enough to frost the western burbs in the next 2 weeks. Ops may not have it look easy right now but the lw pattern looks pretty decent. Northern and Central Canada should have no problem generating some cold air. Just gotta get a clean push or 2 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I saw HM's tweet today that the Euro weeklies don't look cold. I'm pretty numb about this fall and will be pleasantly shocked if we don't torch through Novie. Even 11/09 was warm and then things changed quickly after Thanksgiving, so it's too early to write off December...but hope is "thin" in light of the seasonal guidance. Not like it really matters that much anyway. If the last two years taught us anything it's that we can punt anything before Christmas without much worry. Little doubt winter will try to linger this year.. hopefully Dec isn't warm and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.