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October 2015 Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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I just called my parents to check up on them. Their radio has been going off all night with warnings and emergencies.

Hopefully all is well with them. Flooding and flood damage is awful. I could deal with about anything else. Luckily where my house is, flooding is not an issue.

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Yeah, a truly historic event. Something awesome to watch from afar.

It really is. I was a little worried on Thursday when the GFS was showing that rain down in HHI. The island would have been well and truly f***ed if that happened. Luckily we've only gotten an inch or two from this, though that fell after some torrential rains on Thursday evening that flooded things out pretty well.

Saw the sun this morning for a bit, and I'm really looking forward to what looks like will be a beautiful week. Hopefully more of the same up at home!

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There were some light rain showers this morning but I think we're done now.

 

9/29 - 5.02"

9/30 - 0.04"

10/1 - 0.42"

10/2 - 1.82"

10/3 - 0.58"

10/4 - 0.06"

 

6 day total - 7.94"

 

The only thing I have approaching that multi-day total this year is the 4.34" that fell between 6/1 and 6/5.

 

We never had advisory level winds IMBY.

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After the first real cool down when I have to turn on the heat, I start to look long term for when other cool shots arrive and what the LR pattern looks like. Looks pretty boring for a while. Maybe we see another nice cool down around the 15th and 20th? I don't really see a frigid or torch pattern. Looks about normal with oscillations between slightly above and (maybe) slightly below.

Pretty strong +pna coming over the next 10 days. AO stays active. I'm thinking the pattern is pretty good for a fall coastal. Ridge axis on the means is a bit too far east but overall looks decent for some active weather in the east in general.

Cold air may have a chance to build in Canada over the next couple weeks but agree that no notable cold seems likely. Which is fine. I went post climo for first freeze. Lol.

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Pretty strong +pna coming over the next 10 days. AO stays active. I'm thinking the pattern is pretty good for a fall coastal. Ridge axis on the means is a bit too far east but overall looks decent for some active weather in the east in general.

Cold air may have a chance to build in Canada over the next couple weeks but agree that no notable cold seems likely. Which is fine. I went post climo for first freeze. Lol.

Not good news with regards to storminess. I was really hoping for about a month of normal temps and wall to wall sunshine.

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I'm starting to wonder if IAD knocks down the first freeze before the 20th. Maybe around the period of the 15th-20th?

 

The overall shift in the pattern in the NH is pointing towards some chilly air dropping into the east. 

 

Pretty impressive PNA spike in conjunction with the AO tanking.

 

post-2035-0-76166100-1444065741_thumb.jp

 

post-2035-0-44185300-1444065726_thumb.jp

 

 

CPC d11 looks pretty good for below normal temps around here. EPO just went negative for the first time in a while as well so Canada should be able to build up some cold air masses before they get forced south into the east half of the conus. 

 

post-2035-0-50925100-1444065906_thumb.jp

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I had to go back and see what my picks were. I like my IAD call. Could be primed for a nice cold shot by then.

I told everyone to edit rain then I forgot to myself. But strong el Ninos tend to have a near or earlier than normal freeze for whatever reason.
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I think I'm gonna get killed on the tiebreaker lol. Maybe it will be more active, I'm sure things will change...but given that we've underperformed on virtually every rain event thus far, I need to see it to believe.

Yeah, fortunately we didn't get a ton from this event.. or at least the Oct part. I could see us not getting a huge amount more the rest of the month. Next 10 or so look fairly dry at least before pattern might become a bit more favorable.  But even then you're probably talking a coastal and a cold front or two. 

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I told everyone to edit rain then I forgot to myself. But strong el Ninos tend to have a near or earlier than normal freeze for whatever reason.

 

our freeze map is hanging in my cube, so i used that when picking numbers :)

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our freeze map is hanging in my cube, so i used that when picking numbers :)

Prob just as good. The strong Nino sample is largely not too recent so the 'early' numbers might be partly that. 

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actually, if the Euro's 10 day is right for Asia, we should see some very decent snow cover in Asia, not that I'm interested in that area in October   :whistle:

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015100512!!/

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