CAPE Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 WPC forecast is for another foot of rain for central coastal SC next 2 days, where more than a foot has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I just called my parents to check up on them. Their radio has been going off all night with warnings and emergencies. Hopefully all is well with them. Flooding and flood damage is awful. I could deal with about anything else. Luckily where my house is, flooding is not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Yeah, a truly historic event. Something awesome to watch from afar. It really is. I was a little worried on Thursday when the GFS was showing that rain down in HHI. The island would have been well and truly f***ed if that happened. Luckily we've only gotten an inch or two from this, though that fell after some torrential rains on Thursday evening that flooded things out pretty well. Saw the sun this morning for a bit, and I'm really looking forward to what looks like will be a beautiful week. Hopefully more of the same up at home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 The images coming from Charleston first, and now Columbia are amazing. It's beyond incredible and in the end it looks like a big part of the state will end up with 20"+ of rain. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 There were some light rain showers this morning but I think we're done now. 9/29 - 5.02" 9/30 - 0.04" 10/1 - 0.42" 10/2 - 1.82" 10/3 - 0.58" 10/4 - 0.06" 6 day total - 7.94" The only thing I have approaching that multi-day total this year is the 4.34" that fell between 6/1 and 6/5. We never had advisory level winds IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Finished with 4.55" of rain since Tuesday. 2.30" for the Second round. Definitely much needed. Hopefully reduces stress on the trees for a good color show. Breeze and 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 2.16" since Thursday. 5.73" since Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 windy 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Still misting here. Almost 2.25" since Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 After the first real cool down when I have to turn on the heat, I start to look long term for when other cool shots arrive and what the LR pattern looks like. Looks pretty boring for a while. Maybe we see another nice cool down around the 15th and 20th? I don't really see a frigid or torch pattern. Looks about normal with oscillations between slightly above and (maybe) slightly below. Pretty strong +pna coming over the next 10 days. AO stays active. I'm thinking the pattern is pretty good for a fall coastal. Ridge axis on the means is a bit too far east but overall looks decent for some active weather in the east in general. Cold air may have a chance to build in Canada over the next couple weeks but agree that no notable cold seems likely. Which is fine. I went post climo for first freeze. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Hey, blue skies to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Hey, blue skies to my north. I've been checking in on the visible satellite loop for the past few hours, and clear skies have been diving south down the coast. Hope to see a nice sunset. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Here in Oak Hill: Event rainfall (October 1-4): 1.91" Week rainfall (September 28-October 4): 3.75" Met Autumn rainfall (September 1-October 4): 4.88" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Pretty strong +pna coming over the next 10 days. AO stays active. I'm thinking the pattern is pretty good for a fall coastal. Ridge axis on the means is a bit too far east but overall looks decent for some active weather in the east in general. Cold air may have a chance to build in Canada over the next couple weeks but agree that no notable cold seems likely. Which is fine. I went post climo for first freeze. Lol. Not good news with regards to storminess. I was really hoping for about a month of normal temps and wall to wall sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Still pouring in South Carolina, jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 10/1: 0.07" 10/2 - 10/4: 2.18" Monthly total: 2.25" Seasonal total: 6.20" Since June 1: 13.52" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 44F. Coldest of the season so far. Feels incredible out. Today will be an easy 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 First time the sun has been out in a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 First time the sun has been out in a week Thank God. I was on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I'm starting to wonder if IAD knocks down the first freeze before the 20th. Maybe around the period of the 15th-20th? The overall shift in the pattern in the NH is pointing towards some chilly air dropping into the east. Pretty impressive PNA spike in conjunction with the AO tanking. CPC d11 looks pretty good for below normal temps around here. EPO just went negative for the first time in a while as well so Canada should be able to build up some cold air masses before they get forced south into the east half of the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I went with the 15th for a reason yo. May have been a touch quick tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I had to go back and see what my picks were. I like my IAD call. Could be primed for a nice cold shot by then.I told everyone to edit rain then I forgot to myself. But strong el Ninos tend to have a near or earlier than normal freeze for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I think I'm gonna get killed on the tiebreaker lol. Maybe it will be more active, I'm sure things will change...but given that we've underperformed on virtually every rain event thus far, I need to see it to believe. Yeah, fortunately we didn't get a ton from this event.. or at least the Oct part. I could see us not getting a huge amount more the rest of the month. Next 10 or so look fairly dry at least before pattern might become a bit more favorable. But even then you're probably talking a coastal and a cold front or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I told everyone to edit rain then I forgot to myself. But strong el Ninos tend to have a near or earlier than normal freeze for whatever reason. our freeze map is hanging in my cube, so i used that when picking numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 1981-2010 IAD is 10/15, BWI is 10/28, DCA is 11/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 our freeze map is hanging in my cube, so i used that when picking numbers Prob just as good. The strong Nino sample is largely not too recent so the 'early' numbers might be partly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 a year ago today, my backyard dipped to 32 for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I sure hope I don't keep seeing that map come DEC-MAR lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 actually, if the Euro's 10 day is right for Asia, we should see some very decent snow cover in Asia, not that I'm interested in that area in October http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015100512!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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