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October 2015 Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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I think you will become more resilient in terms of how you react to threats working out down here in the Mid-Atlantic once your optimism for the best-case output at 72+hrs gets beaten out of you :) Just give it another two years....

I've gotten to the point where I'm pretty much waiting for the rug pull outside of 72. Gets pretty easy to deal with.

OTOH- I love it when stuff sneaks up on us right in that 72-96 hr range. When were were never in the game at all and all of a sudden things start breaking our way. Those almost always perform in some fashion.

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I've gotten to the point where I'm pretty much waiting for the rug pull outside of 72. Gets pretty easy to deal with.

OTOH- I love it when stuff sneaks up on us right in that 72-96 hr range. When were were never in the game at all and all of a sudden things start breaking our way. Those almost always perform in some fashion.

Iow, to be in the shoes of NE when they get bullseyed by a storm forecast to be ours 3-5 days out? Yeah, that's living.
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DT got too carried away and proclaimed all weekend sunshine DC and northeast. With the orientation of the upper low and Joaquin passing somewhere it seems we'll continue with this onshore fetch etc. It's been an extremely lengthy period of such. I wonder if we have some widespread significant coastal problems even without the hurricane hitting. Lots of beaches already look like ass going in.

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Not nearly as sexy as the J west shift with the 0z gfs but strong model consensus for broad brush 1.5-2.5" of rain over the next 36 hours with dc south favored for the higher totals.

Based what we already saw today, I don't think it's a reach for some locations to hit 3-4". It's an anomalous wet pattern after weeks on end of dry. Good stuff even if it doesn't include 100mph winds and devastation.

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Not nearly as sexy as the J west shift with the 0z gfs but strong model consensus for broad brush 1.5-2.5" of rain over the next 36 hours with dc south favored for the higher totals.

Based what we already saw today, I don't think it's a reach for some locations to hit 3-4". It's an anomalous wet pattern after weeks on end of dry. Good stuff even if it doesn't include 100mph winds and devastation.

 

All this media hype....Is this going to bust?  Is 1-2" that big of a deal?...is 3-4"+ realistic?

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All this media hype....Is this going to bust? Is 1-2" that big of a deal?...is 3-4"+ realistic?

Widespread 3-4" doesn't seem likely IMHO. But I'm confident were going to see localized 3"+ depending on who gets lucky under the best lift. Heck, today was supposed to be .25 tops but 1" was splattered around.

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Models often underplay the heavy rain NW of the front. I wouldn't go above those numbers in a forecast but I wouldn't be surprised. Ground is probably saturated enough at this point to lead to at least some flooding.

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Anyone notice how the axis of heavy rain seems to be north of where it was predicted? Charleston was the bullseye. If I was in Charleston. I'd be saying "bust". Seems the moisture train is more north into VA/NC. Hopefully this means more for us. Or it could mean I'm a huge weenie lol.

Light rain and 52. .80 in the bucket so far.

Chilly morning.

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