North Balti Zen Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 He's just being stupid at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 High of 76, absolutely perfect day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 way too warm. Agreed. 74F for the high, but now 59.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 High of 76, absolutely perfect day Amen....perfect. Give me 30 more days of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 It's chilly in the mornings. Start out in sweatshirt/jacket and end up in a t-shirt. It is beautiful right now. It's so freaking boring, tho. The color change in the trees is keeping me occupied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Low of 37.7, currently 39.6/38.3. Another morning of HUGE temp differences in elevation, 55 up at airport at 3700 foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 A bit of an interesting setup coming next week. Looks like Patricia in the epac is going to hit the Mexico coast as a major tomorrow evening. GFS tracks the remnants into TX or the GOM. Midweek next week a sw trough digs through the the 4 corners and absorbs the remnants. A lot of uncertainty of course but there remains the potential for a pretty nice precip event next week. Something worth tracking in the face of yet another really boring stretch of wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 A bit of an interesting setup coming next week. Looks like Patricia in the epac is going to hit the Mexico coast as a major tomorrow evening. GFS tracks the remnants into TX or the GOM. Midweek next week a sw trough digs through the the 4 corners and absorbs the remnants. A lot of uncertainty of course but there remains the potential for a pretty nice precip event next week. Something worth tracking in the face of yet another really boring stretch of wx. how are the 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Plenty of time for it to trend colder. The storm may even be able to create its own cold air our current snowpack will help with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 A bit of an interesting setup coming next week. Looks like Patricia in the epac is going to hit the Mexico coast as a major tomorrow evening. GFS tracks the remnants into TX or the GOM. Midweek next week a sw trough digs through the the 4 corners and absorbs the remnants. A lot of uncertainty of course but there remains the potential for a pretty nice precip event next week. Something worth tracking in the face of yet another really boring stretch of wx. Pretty good setup for a heavy rain event. PWAT indices using GFS around 0.5-0.75" on Tuesday as the high mid week moves overhead. In less than 36 hours, PWAT indices shoot up over 1.6" through the region with good moisture convergence over the MA. I forecast for some locations down in Texas for my job and PWAT indices around 2.75-3" are showing up across south-central TX, so the tropical origin of the moisture source will be interesting to watch. Some locales could see 3-5" of rain in 12 hours down there if the Euro is right. Then the front, end of next week clears everything out and we see a good dry air advection behind the boundary. Windy for Friday with a decent pressure gradient setup and winds out of the north. Temps feeling fall like too with low to mid 30's in Jonjon territory and 40's elsewhere. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 River wind doing some serious work today. IAD, Andrews and my station all up 5 degrees on DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Pretty good setup for a heavy rain event. It is. I like the fact that both the GFS/Euro track the low center to our west but not too far. Hopefully that holds. Could be a substantial plume out in front of the trough before the low passes our latitude. Depending on how it shakes out...I suppose there could be some instability in the warm sector...I'll let Ian take the lead and follow Yoda's cut and paste of the good stuff....heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 River wind doing some serious work today. IAD, Andrews and my station all up 5 degrees on DCA. IMPOSSIBLE! DCA is always the warmest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Here's a vote for continuing boring, sunny, and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It has been an extraordinary period of nice and dry the last few months. I've enjoyed it, but I need something to track. Fail tropical, foliage, and 850s can only take you so far. It is nearly impossible to get a real snow this early. Snow that melts as fast as it falls, damp, temps in the 30's isn't very exciting IMO. I'm content to wait for the time when snow can actually be meaningful. In the meantime, I like weather that allows me to work outdoors...there's always plenty to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 5:05ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Number & Year: 20 in 2015Storm Name: Patricia (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 4:46:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°19'N 105°18'W (16.3167N 105.3W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,182m (7,159ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 179kts (From the SE at ~ 206.0mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 894mb (26.40 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 28°C (82°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,001m (9,846ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: ClosedM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical milesN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical milesRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 179kts (~ 206.0mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 4:45:00ZDropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 25kts (From the W at 29mph) Hurricane Patricia in the Epac just broke Linda's pressure record. Hopefully we get some rain from her remnants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 5:05Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303 Storm Number & Year: 20 in 2015 Storm Name: Patricia (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 4:46:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°19'N 105°18'W (16.3167N 105.3W) C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,182m (7,159ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 179kts (From the SE at ~ 206.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 894mb (26.40 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 28°C (82°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,001m (9,846ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 179kts (~ 206.0mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 4:45:00Z Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 25kts (From the W at 29mph) Hurricane Patricia in the Epac just broke Linda's pressure record.i Hopefully we get some rain from her remnants v Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 5:05Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303 Storm Number & Year: 20 in 2015 Storm Name: Patricia (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 4:46:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°19'N 105°18'W (16.3167N 105.3W) C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,182m (7,159ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 179kts (From the SE at ~ 206.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 894mb (26.40 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 28°C (82°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,001m (9,846ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 179kts (~ 206.0mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 4:45:00Z Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 25kts (From the W at 29mph) Hurricane Patricia in the Epac just broke Linda's pressure record. Hopefully we get some rain from her remnants Yep she's a. beast. Pressure down to 880mb. Max sustained winds 200mph. Should remain cat 5 to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Strongest hurricane ever recorded by NHC. Pretty incredible satellite image this morning. Looks to still be intensifing . Weather never ceases to amaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Gonna be a damp week for Texas next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Strongest hurricane ever recorded by NHC. Pretty incredible satellite image this morning. Looks to still be intensifing . Weather never ceases to amaze. I agree. Mother nature is incredible. What a monster out there.Mild morning. Temp 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh is in Mexico for Patricia you can follow him here: https://twitter.com/iCyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 As long as we don't have rain on Halloween, it can do whatever it wants next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I knew something interesting would happen when I left town. Rain is interesting now? We've reached a new low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 GFS doesn't seem too impressed with any real big precip events coming down the line. An inch or so over the next 10 days. There is a low cutting up west of us at day 10 though, so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 UW - CIMSSADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUEADT-Version 8.2.1Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm----- Current Analysis -----Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 124500 UTCLat : 17:16:57 N Lon : 105:39:35 WCI# /Pressure/ Vmax8.1 / 887.9mb/173.0ktFinal T# Adj T# Raw T#8.1 8.3 8.3 Literally off the charts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 GFS doesn't seem too impressed with any real big precip events coming down the line. An inch or so over the next 10 days. There is a low cutting up west of us at day 10 though, so..... It's a really touchy setup for models to pin down for mid week next week. I wouldn't jump on any dry or wet solutions as being right for a few more days. Models are dealing with 2 fairly significant features melding together at medium-long leads. Typical small differences in timing and placement can have large swings in the outcome. Other than the consolidated low pressure tracking to our west (which seems very likely), it's hard to say what happens here. My wag is we do well with precip (1"+). Could be 1 consolidated slug or 2 separate batches. Ensembles have quite a bit of spread with some soaking the crap out of us and other solutions fairly dry. GEFS ens mean from 6z has us in the 1.25-1.5" range. 15 day ens mean has around 3". Active period coming up. Which should make Mitch very happy considering the timing of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 124500 UTC Lat : 17:16:57 N Lon : 105:39:35 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 8.1 / 887.9mb/173.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 8.1 8.3 8.3 Literally off the charts... You got a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 You got a link to that? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 39 F Nice fall morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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