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October 2015 Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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GFS has been hinting at something the last few runs. Hopefully this is the first of many juiced systems.

We'll see. Pattern is OK but not prime. Decent blocking hp sliding across to the north on the means. D8-10 range offers little confidence for precip events. But something to track in a pretty boring period otherwise.

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Starting to see a chance at an organized precip event mid-late next week. Ops and ens have been hinting at a storm organizing and coming up from the gulf.

Well, if Tenman's analog forecasting method works, we don't want that to happen. Go to post 6 in this thread:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46928-ka-winter-outlook-2015-16-mine-also-others-please-post-here/#entry3721316

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Such clear air today.  I could see the JLENS balloons at APG perfectly clearly in Columbia.  Can't recall seeing them more than once before from hear (although maybe I just wasn't looking).

if I was still in Nevada, this would be the kind of day that I'd either be climbing a mountain, or kicking myself for not having climbed a mountain.
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Such clear air today. I could see the JLENS balloons at APG perfectly clearly in Columbia. Can't recall seeing them more than once before from here (although maybe I just wasn't looking).

I never knew what they were so thanks! I've seen them before but I think you're right about the clear air. Driving home from columbia, they looked so close.

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Did a little digging with CPC d8+ analogs. 3 of the top 5 have decent precip events within 2 days of the dates. 2 of the analogs had 1"+. Right now ensembles are leaning towards keeping things too far south in the wed-fri time frame next week but plenty of storminess showing up during the d8-15 period. Might be a couple chances coming up.

 

November looks to start off on the warm side with the trough in the GOA tucked pretty close to the west coast. The dreaded pac zonal here...heh.

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Did a little digging with CPC d8+ analogs. 3 of the top 5 have decent precip events within 2 days of the dates. 2 of the analogs had 1"+. Right now ensembles are leaning towards keeping things too far south in the wed-fri time frame next week but plenty of storminess showing up during the d8-15 period. Might be a couple chances coming up.

 

November looks to start off on the warm side with the trough in the GOA tucked pretty close to the west coast. The dreaded pac zonal here...heh.

Good.  Let's keep it warm, keep it dry until about the 20th.............and then unleash hell.

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