Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

October 2015 Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 665
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Time to dig out the heavier coats for the weekend?

 

From LWX:

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z MODEL SHOWING SLIGHTLY QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...WITH IT NOW OFFSHORE BY 00Z SAT. CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A
DRY PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON- DIXON...CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS WELL AS PSBL TERRAIN INFLUENCES. ANY PCPN
THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY END BY FRI NIGHT...WITH BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL BCMG THE BIG STORY. STRONG SURGE OF CAA OVER
THE AREA AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS ON THE COOLER SIDE THAN THE
ECMWF...THE AGREEMENT IS THERE OF SEEING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
0 DEGREES CELSIUS. LOWS FRI NIGHT STILL PREDOMINATELY IN THE
40S...WITH SPOTS OUT WEST HITTING THE MID 30S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING SUB-40 SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DIPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS.
HIGHS SAT AND SUN WILL HOVER IN THE 50S.

...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a shot at 3 straight days (maybe 4) of lows in the 30s for the colder burbs. Monday morning seems to be trending slightly cooler.

Monday will probably the chilliest morning.  High is almost directly overhead, so no wind and clearest skies. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Monday will probably the chilliest morning.  High is almost directly overhead, so no wind and clearest skies. 

For radiating spots, yes.  I would bet DCA and DMH have their chilliest morning Sunday, when there is still some wind to negate the urban heat island.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Climo for Adams/York/Lancaster/Carroll Counties for first freeze is Nov. 1st, correct?  This would be about two weeks early.  Still have a few farms with corn that is green and needs the two weeks to finish up.

No, it should be earlier than that.  According to this CWG article the avg. first freeze at BWI is Oct. 29, so I would think it is maybe a good week earlier in the Westminster/S PA area, probably even sooner than that given the IAD avg. first freeze is Oct. 15.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...