Eskimo Joe Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 ^Deceptive color ramp. Wouldn't be surprised to see a pity warning near Thurmont where there's some okay CAPE / Shear / surface convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 So going off that map in the post above is that the 7:00pm time frame? Trying to gauge my daughter getting a ride in between 4:30-5 down in Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 the trend in more recent HRRR runs has been to make the approach of the line about an hour or so earlier; radar does indeed show it starting to get its act together up in PA. the model also suggests that a few lead cells/clusters are possible across northern VA as early as 3 or 4PM, although confidence in that is certainly lower So going off that map in the post above is that the 7:00pm time frame? Trying to gauge my daughter getting a ride in between 4:30-5 down in Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 the trend in more recent HRRR runs has been to make the approach of the line about an hour or so earlier; radar does indeed show it starting to get its act together up in PA. the model also suggests that a few lead cells/clusters are possible across northern VA as early as 3 or 4PM, although confidence in that is certainly lower Thanks! We are going to chance it. Worst case scenario we get there get tacked up and get her ride cut short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I remember the 11/20/89 event well. I had just returned to my home in central NJ for Thanksgiving break, and I saw that a severe t'storm watch had been issued for my area. If one looked at the radar, the immediate reaction would have been puzzlement, as it looked like a weak line of showers approaching. The SPC recap page notes that the cloud tops were under 20,000 ft. But when it arrived, wow. The showers were light, and I maybe saw one flash of distant lightning, but the winds were amazing. 30 hours later, a wave moved up the front that caused this derecho event, and that wave gave us a 6" snowfall early Thanksgiving morning. As that article notes, there was an even worse severe event a few days earlier featuring the deadly Huntsville tornado. There were multiple tornadoes in the morning in NJ/NY (and one on the MD eastern shore and another near Harpers Ferry) with embedded supercells in a squall line. One did serious damage near my family's home in the Trenton area. A microburst associated with this event also caused the horrific school wall collapse near Newburgh, NY. Did not realize we were fellow trentonians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 first t-storm warning up in south-central PA. SPC talked about a possible upgrade to slight risk up in the NYC area and into southern New England, but while their shear is slighly better than ours, we have much better instability. 1500 sfc-based cape and roughly 40 kt of deep layer shear will warrant a mesoscale discussion for us, at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 me neither. Were you in that area in November 89? My mom had a fair amount of damage in her yard in Lawrenceville from the morning severe event. Did not realize we were fellow trentonians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 me neither. Were you in that area in November 89? My mom had a fair amount of damage in her yard in Lawrenceville from the morning severe event. I was in the area, though I was only 8, so my memory isn't as clear as I'd like. I do remember being held late at school in Ewing due to damage blocking roads, and then seeing plenty of broken tree branches on the ride home. One tree in particular I still remember being topped; it still looks odd (a pine that got topped) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I remember the 11/20/89 event well. I had just returned to my home in central NJ for Thanksgiving break, and I saw that a severe t'storm watch had been issued for my area. If one looked at the radar, the immediate reaction would have been puzzlement, as it looked like a weak line of showers approaching. The SPC recap page notes that the cloud tops were under 20,000 ft. But when it arrived, wow. The showers were light, and I maybe saw one flash of distant lightning, but the winds were amazing. 30 hours later, a wave moved up the front that caused this derecho event, and that wave gave us a 6" snowfall early Thanksgiving morning. As that article notes, there was an even worse severe event a few days earlier featuring the deadly Huntsville tornado. There were multiple tornadoes in the morning in NJ/NY (and one on the MD eastern shore and another near Harpers Ferry) with embedded supercells in a squall line. One did serious damage near my family's home in the Trenton area. A microburst associated with this event also caused the horrific school wall collapse near Newburgh, NY. My niece survived that school wall collapse, at East Coldenham Elementary just outside Newburgh, NY in October 1989, where she was a 1st grader at the time, and sitting in the cafeteria where the wall collapsed at the time the microburst (some say tornado) struck. She's in her early 30s now, and still cowers at the hint of oncoming severe weather...as, I'm sure, most kids that were in that school cafeteria still do. The cinder block wall that was blown inward was about 15-20 feet tall, with glass inserts surrounding it. and the kids that were sitting at the tables along that wall pretty much didn't have a chance, or were gravely injured...some partially decapitated, some with limbs torn completely off, some dying from the asphyxiation of being buried in a couple feet of cement and glass. There really wasn't much warning with that system. Weather can be capriciously hideous at time...we all know this...but when it kills kids in the K-3rd grade range, well....that's really hard to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Incoming boomer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 One heck of a shelf cloud moving into Greenbelt. Pretty impressive lightning as well. Solid line of storm on radar. Beautiful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Nice to hear thunder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Tops are exploding as it comes over the fall line.40k now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Tops are exploding as it comes over the fall line.40k now.Niño cold fronts are the best...that and AGW of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Pouring here with some T&L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Idk what BWI will record, but it's freaking pouring in Pasadena right now and I have to believe .25-.5+" has fallen in <30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 0.30" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Only 0.12" but the late season Lightning was worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Only 0.12" but the late season Lightning was worth it.Some of the better lightning I've seen this season. Fun storm. I'll post my rain tally when I get home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Getting fairly big thunder nearby just now. Started about 19:00L Not much wind. Dogs getting nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Probably one of the "best" t&l storms all year. Thats sad. Electric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Wow, .61" at BWI. I knew it was really coming dow good in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Its pouringggg rain with T & L. Kinda cool. I really wasn't expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 .54" earlier from the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 .37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Pretty nasty storm to my S and SW towards Easton. Lots of rumbling and a ton of lightning in that direction. Quite the display. Looks like torrential rain on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 0.35" today. I was surprised at the wind when the line came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 .65 here in AA County. That was in about 30 minutes. Nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Looks like very little, if any, rain at home in Burke. Been gone for a week, so I wonder how the grass seed is holding up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Awesome. 0.02" early in the day and a solid trace this evening. Good to see that things are back to normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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