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October 2015 Obs and Disco Thread


H2O

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Yes indeed perfect weather. With just over 4 inches of rain on Tuesday evening to steady mist/light rain today, grass has greened up and growing again. It may take till Sunday until we get a glimpse of the sun again, assuming the hurricane/storm stays far off the coast. 54 degrees. I need to move to Seattle.

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That's some good news. Makes the sting less painful. That batch of rain over PG county looks nice. Hoping it moves into AA county. I've got .15 in the guage so far today.

 

Hires NAM much less bullish on totals tomorrow. But as we're seeing right now, it's an easy airmass to get rain out of. Not sure about widespread 3" totals like the 12k nam is showing but some areas could see some impressive totals in the next 36 hours IMHO. 

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Hires NAM much less bullish on totals tomorrow. But as we're seeing right now, it's an easy airmass to get rain out of. Not sure about widespread 3" totals like the 12k nam is showing but some areas could see some impressive totals in the next 36 hours IMHO. 

We will have a continuous easterly fetch for a couple days with everything going on.  Air is loaded with water

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Nice little jackpot shaping up in PG Co. Meso's were mostly pretty light through the entire area (.10 or less) through 2pm. Hires NAM has some .10-.25 areas in pg + upper moco/fdk. Radar estimates are over a half inch in PG already. 

 

Since I'm bummed about decreased chances of getting destroyed by tropical, I'm going to over analyze the PRE just cuz. 

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    I'm in College Park right now, and it is absolutely pouring.

 

 

Nice little jackpot shaping up in PG Co. Meso's were mostly pretty light through the entire area (.10 or less) through 2pm. Hires NAM has some .10-.25 areas in pg + upper moco/fdk. Radar estimates are over a half inch in PG already. 

 

Since I'm bummed about decreased chances of getting destroyed by tropical, I'm going to over analyze the PRE just cuz. 

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    I'm in College Park right now, and it is absolutely pouring.

 

 

HRRR jackpots college park with from late afternoon through 3am and still raining good at the end of the run. 

 

Nice breezes out there today too. I'm just going to pretend the next 24-36 hours are a tropical storm. Pretty similar conditions to many that affect the region. heh. 

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HRRR jackpots college park with from late afternoon through 3am and still raining good at the end of the run. 

 

Nice breezes out there today too. I'm just going to pretend the next 24-36 hours are a tropical storm. Pretty similar conditions to many that affect the region. heh. 

and there you have it

http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php

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I really hope the GFS and Euro are wrong and we get a Cat 5 up the Potomac.

Not what I'm talking about.  I understand the thrill of a hurricane.

 

But a cloudy day with drizzle?  Who get's fired up for drizzle?  My guess is people who haven't spent 10 minutes outside all day.

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   even the HRRR had pretty much nothing in its early runs before catching on during the morning

 

Replying outside of the tropical thread but it's at least mildly interesting. Even when the HRRR caught on it still missed the extent and amounts around the area at very close range. So did the RGEM. Unusual for those 2 models to miss stuff basically right in front of them. 

 

HRRR has a broad shield of light/mod rain moving into the entire area beginning somewhere around 11pm and continuing through the night. I wouldn't be surprised if some folks have 1.5" before the real heavy stuff heads our way tomorrow. Some folks could end up with 6"+ for the period (including Tuesday) even without a drop from Joaquin. Not too shabby. We'll see how it goes. 

 

Heck, I've already had more rain this week than July/August and almost all of Sept combined. Not complaining. Still might be too late to save some portions of my yard. But the weeds should fill in nicely. lol

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