Bob Chill Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 That place looks kick ass, nwbwx. My kind of beer drinking place for sure. Enjoy one for me on you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I'm not the least bit worried about winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I'm so nervous about the winter outlook. This is what happens when you affirmatively look for the negative raging PAC torches us all, the south cashes in while we wade through weeks and weeks of 40F big rainers. Or we're in the perfect spot. DC-S&E get crushed with mash potatoes while N&W watch wet flurries all winter. Sorry N&W.. this is my pipe dream lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Someone needs to visit this site and make some gifs that would be appropriate for this winter of fail http://watch.everythingisterrible.com Warning: creepy as **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Haha. I want deathbands that continue to back build right over my house. Juicy clippers. Weekly bombogenesis. Monthly KUs. Triple phasers. City cripplers with NAM like outputs busting low. Frozen Potomac 12" thick. Arctic fronts with whiteout conditions and flash freezes. Payloaders disabled in the streets. Incessant wailing and gnashing of teeth from the winter haters as I walk nips high through the snow to work. Too much to ask? Naaaa... well.. maybe the "back building" part. That ain't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 We're going to have a lot of model snow this winter. Ji will be very happy until verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 No chance I dislike snow ever. I mean zero chance. My wife is the same way. We absolutely love a good storm. When I get too old to shovel and deal with the impact on my property I'll simply pay someone to take care of it. Same, I enjoy snow just as much at 51 as when I was 15. The wood cutting/splitting is good cardio too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I hate Comcast. All services went down at 4am, they can't come out until 1-5pm.... Right in the middle of our planned pumpkin patch outing. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Same, I enjoy snow just as much at 51 as when I was 15. The wood cutting/splitting is good cardio too! I'm just as crazy about it, and get just as excited when it snows and as despondent when it doesn't, as I have been since my earliest memories. The only difference is I don't spend as much time playing in it now, and - as of this year - I'm thinking it may be time to buy a snow blower rather than to continue and shovel it. I'll never get too old for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Haha. I want deathbands that continue to back build right over my house. Juicy clippers. Weekly bombogenesis. Monthly KUs. Triple phasers. City cripplers with NAM like outputs busting low. Frozen Potomac 12" thick. Arctic fronts with whiteout conditions and flash freezes. Payloaders disabled in the streets. Incessant wailing and gnashing of teeth from the winter haters as I walk nips high through the snow to work. Too much to ask? You know...I was thinking about clippers last night, and it got me wondering what one may look like this year. I wouldn't be surprised if, at some point, we get a pretty beastly upper low dropping down that gets juiced up from the southern stream. It may jackpot north of us, but it'd be interesting to see how that evolved in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Sirius 70's on 7 top 40 countdown today is from this week in 1972.....we're fooked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Sirius 70's on 7 top 40 countdown today is from this week in 1972.....we're fooked! Haha! Speaking of bad vibs......... NOT the music though, that is 90% of what I listen to - 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Does me no good to see a Philly jackpot I want something like the Clipper That Did. Models kept shifting south and juicing up. Let's get a low to drop below us and explode on the coast. Oh baby does that sound beautiful. I'm not particularly interested in watching someone else jackpot, either. Hell...I'd get texts and pictures from my family in South Jersey telling me all about it! I do think we might see an event like the one you describe. If it trends south, then awesome. If the models then see its interaction with the Nino juice, then all the better! Either way, I think this might be a wild winter, especially once we hit the new year and we start seeing the potential for good patterns start to show up (because I think December is likely to fail here). Lots of tents in pants. Just need there not to be frustration in the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I just want to know how a model can be this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I just want to know how a model can be this bad. Try programming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I just want to know how a model can be this bad. Butterflies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Try programming one. It's 2015. We have the equations we don't need to fill a stadium with supercomputers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 It's 2015. We have the equations we don't need to fill a stadium with supercomputers. It's not as much a matter of computing power as it is the ability to correctly model every possible permutation in the atmosphere between current and a given time in the future that you're expecting the computer to correctly model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Oh...calling dtk in 3, 2, 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 It's not as much a matter of computing power as it is the ability to correctly model every possible permutation in the atmosphere between current and a given time in the future that you're expecting the computer to correctly model. After Joaquin, this model is sickening to me. Permutations shouldn't be a big deal before day 7 or a week out, it simply doesn't make sense. 4dvar is coming to the GFS in an upgrade tho, hopefully it helps resolve whatever butterflies' are in the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshanaz Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 http://i.imgur.com/8zIA3vJ.jpg My husband caught this on Reddit: El Nino Halloween costume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 It's 2015. We have the equations we don't need to fill a stadium with supercomputers. Try programming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Try programming one. He should try getting a job. He'd have less time to post here. You'd think a man with all the weather answers would want to work in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 He should try getting a job. He'd have less time to post here. You'd think a man with all the weather answers would want to work in the field.Nah, he's looking for an office job...the kids these days are all alike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Nah, he's looking for an office job...the kids these days are all alike! They write the program to run the robot that put 10 guys out of work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Winter is def coming. DT and CT Blizz are back at it. Snow is serious business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 After Joaquin, this model is sickening to me. Permutations shouldn't be a big deal before day 7 or a week out, it simply doesn't make sense. 4dvar is coming to the GFS in an upgrade tho, hopefully it helps resolve whatever butterflies' are in the system. I just want to know how a model can be this bad. You seem to have a pretty firm misunderstanding regarding predictability and deterministic weather prediction. 1. The 500 hPa AC scores at this lead time are below 0.7 (where anything below 0.6 is pretty much unusable). The skill for smaller scale components at lower levels is even less. This is true for the GFS, ECMWF, and all other deterministic global models. 2. Error growth is exponential. Small perturbations can grow to be very large in as short as 24 hours (or less), if you consider the mesoscale and moist convective processes. The January 2000 "bust" is a really good example of extreme, nonlinear error growth. 3. How is "4DVAR" going to "resolve butterflies" in the system, and for that matter, what are these butterflies? 4. There is no 4DVAR coming in a GFS upgrade. I have no idea where you got that from. NCEP will eventually be implementing hybrid 4D EnVar (which is *not* the same as 4DVAR). Also, 4DVAR requires significant approximations and is not some panacea for predictability (and not all 4DVAR is created equal...just like at other models such as NAVGEM). 5. Just because a produces a different solution (for some component of the system) from an analysis 6 hours later does not mean it is a "bad model". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 love when dtk sets people straight wrt models. game. set. match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 You seem to have a pretty firm misunderstanding regarding predictability and deterministic weather prediction. 1. The 500 hPa AC scores at this lead time are below 0.7 (where anything below 0.6 is pretty much unusable). The skill for smaller scale components at lower levels is even less. This is true for the GFS, ECMWF, and all other deterministic global models. 2. Error growth is exponential. Small perturbations can grow to be very large in as short as 24 hours (or less), if you consider the mesoscale and moist convective processes. The January 2000 "bust" is a really good example of extreme, nonlinear error growth. 3. How is "4DVAR" going to "resolve butterflies" in the system, and for that matter, what are these butterflies? 4. There is no 4DVAR coming in a GFS upgrade. I have no idea where you got that from. NCEP will eventually be implementing hybrid 4D EnVar (which is *not* the same as 4DVAR). Also, 4DVAR requires significant approximations and is not some panacea for predictability (and not all 4DVAR is created equal...just like at other models such as NAVGEM). 5. Just because a produces a different solution (for some component of the system) from an analysis 6 hours later does not mean it is a "bad model". Classic. Love it. Keep up the good work. I don't always understand what you're saying, but enjoy it nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I'd like to propose a new word in the spirit of mansplaining and whitesplaining "newenglandsplaining", or I am open to a better name definition - when a new englander talks to you in a condescending way about weather, particularly about climo in your backyard and/or about meteorological concepts, especially in terms of how they affect the mid-atlantic and/or assumes that the features that are good/bad for new england apply to the mid atlantic.... Example - MA dude - "Man, we really could use a west based NAO for the mid atlantic to do well this winter" SNE dude - "But last winter was historic. It's obviously not as important as you think" MA dude - "It wasn't historic here. It was decent by Mid Atlantic standards, but nothing special, other than really cold in February. We had one decent snow period from mid February to Early march" SNE dude - "Yes, and that period was a raging +NAO" MA dude - "Not really for the first event, and 2 others were mixy. We lucked out on another. But in any case, none were huge events. We typically need a -AO/+AO for area wide big snow events. A lot was a product of just having a sick air mass" SNE dude - "Well, that's because we did have blocking. A block over AK is just as important as AO/NAO blocking" MA dude - "Yes, but we really need AO/NAO blocking here to prevent storms from cutting to our west" SNE dude - "Tell that to 13-14 and 93-94" MA dude - "We did well in the 1st with some real luck imo, but the 2nd was actually pretty mixy down here" SNE dude - "I hear ya. Hopefully we can get a weak nino like 04-05, 76-77, 77-78 so we can all cash in with huge snows" Today I was lectured on microclimates.....what would I do with 40N not educating me? ....And I knew weenie-ism was bad up there, but it is more insane than I thought....any suggestion that this winter won't be a monster is taken as a complete affront.....New England - where averages and medians are like unicorns and yeti's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.