Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 No, any big late October or early November storm. For that time of year many large storms would have some snow in elevated areas. And, the 6z GFS would be snow in some areas. Oh, ok. Gotcha. Might be hard not to get a storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 F F F For life! First fantasy GFS snow storm and we'll be all over it. We wont be able to resist. It will be a start of hart ripping episodes throughout the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 First fantasy GFS snow storm and we'll be all over it. We wont be able to resist. It will be a start of hart ripping episodes throughout the winter... Haha yes it will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I guess this pic is a fake, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Uh oh, second run in a row of the GFS showing a big east coast storm around October 21st. 12z GFS day 16: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=372&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151005+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Yepp, I'm done with the GFS. If it aint EURO it aint happenin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I guess this pic is a fake, too. Did it rain in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Please models no fantasy snow for a while... my poor heart can't take it right now. I need to recover from the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 After the Joaquin debacle, who looks at the GFS ? Euro 4 life, son! Too bad the ECMWF failed to correctly model the mlvl deformation zone associated with the ulvl low, while the GFS had the placement and duration of the band handled consistently since 12z Fri. Huge differences wrt the sensible wx fcst over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Too bad the ECMWF failed to correctly model the mlvl deformation zone associated with the ulvl low, while the GFS had the placement and duration of the band handled consistently since 12z Fri. Huge differences wrt the sensible wx fcst over the Carolinas. Iso, can you comment on what the Euro was showing by comparison with respect to the heavy precip band? I didn't see/follow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Iso, can you comment on what the Euro was showing by comparison with respect to the heavy precip band? I didn't see/follow it I'm not sure what you're asking exactly, but the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with the upper deformation zone and hence the high qpf bands. The GFS was locked on to the correct alignment and transformation of the def-zone and the strength of the forcing on Fri. The ECMWF was on the otherhand, wishy-washy with the placement...notably far more SE than the GFS on Fri, while it's overall magnitude was also less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I'm not sure what you're asking exactly, but the GFS outperformed the ECMWF with the upper deformation zone and hence the high qpf bands. The GFS was locked on to the correct alignment and transformation of the def-zone and the strength of the forcing on Fri. The ECMWF was on the otherhand, wishy-washy with the placement...notably far more SE than the GFS on Fri, while it's overall magnitude was also less. That was it, thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 So the Euro got the track of Joaquin right, but not the fine details of where the rain would be and the intensity in SC. So, should we conclude the Euro might be better with the big picture and overall setup, but the GFS better with the fine details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Uh oh, second run in a row of the GFS showing a big east coast storm around October 21st. 12z GFS day 16: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=372&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151005+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Oh heck no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Uh oh, second run in a row of the GFS showing a big east coast storm around October 21st. 12z GFS day 16: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=372&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151005+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Whew! thought you meant that it was a snowstorm. KOD on winter right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 So Joaquin and Erika for retirement this year? I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 So the Euro got the track of Joaquin right, but not the fine details of where the rain would be and the intensity in SC. So, should we conclude the Euro might be better with the big picture and overall setup, but the GFS better with the fine details? That would be using an awfully wide paintbrush indeed. That would be true for some systems, but completely opposite for others. And for others still, neither model will be very useful. But in other ways, your statement doesn't even make sense. With weather, the fine details often depend on the big picture. But sometimes, the fine details can determine the big picture. I don't think you can break down weather systems into the projections of one or two models, it's waaay more complex than that. Models are just tools and you can't really "conclude" much of anything from them. You can only evaluate, infer, postulate and attempt to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 There's one sun spot (15 in mass) that's about to move out of view. If another does not appear we'll have our first spotless day for 2015. http://spaceweather.com/ But I've said that before only to have something develop right at the last minute... Edit: There's an article in the link above that's also interesting -- LUNAR ECLIPSE DETECTS GLOBAL COOLING (BUT ONLY A LITTLE): **I would also say read it but don't comment on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Such an extreme event we just had with 12 days of rain and the flooding in SC. Makes me wonder if this the start of more extreme weather to come this winter. Or will it be the other case and cause everything else to be calm and boring this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Such an extreme event we just had with 12 days of rain and the flooding in SC. Makes me wonder if this the start of more extreme weather to come this winter. Or will it be the other case and cause everything else to be calm and boring this winter? I think you are confusing this with the screw job early snow storms that come too early and delay winter. I don't think this falls in that category and could possibly mean more action since it was a crazy ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 So Joaquin and Erika for retirement this year? I think so. I'm not sure joaquin will be retired because it stayed 500+ miles off shore. Has any storm in history that stayed that far off shore ever been retired ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Such an extreme event we just had with 12 days of rain and the flooding in SC. Makes me wonder if this the start of more extreme weather to come this winter. Or will it be the other case and cause everything else to be calm and boring this winter? I'm not quite sure this recent event has anything to do with this Winter having extreme weather. What happened in SC is one of those very rare things people say don't happen. There were a lot of factors that aligned correctly. On another note.. I just got around to catching up on this thread and learned a valuable lesson of not throwing a model solution out the window and thinking of a bust as quickly. While I never really called a bust, the timing was off and I was a relieved I didn't wake up to 7" of rain on Saturday morning. In fact, I started to say "yeah, it's staying on the coast". By 10PM that night, it was becoming apparent that many were throwing the towel in too early, including myself. Fast forward 6 hours or so, and the weather alerts are going off for Civil Emergencies to not leave my house. I'll keep this event in mind and learn from it. Also Buckeye, my post earlier about recovering quickly on the other thread was more geared to how the people of South Carolina are handling this situation. There are many other places in the country that wouldn't be nearly as resilient as we have been during this. I think we are coming along nicely and working together in ways other areas fail to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 This is awesome. SpongBob singing War Pigs by Black Sabbath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'm so tired of the heat. Average high here is around 75 and we have 80s today and the next 2 days. Low temps have also been well above normal. What happened to the "much below normal" October the weather channel was talking about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Rain for the races in Charlotte??? Friday Night A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of showers before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Someone had told me the 2015 Old Farmer's Almanac was right with the flood. I just looked at a copy, and we were supposed to be drier than normal in the flood zone. So that rumor is squashed. The 2016 says less snow for all of SC, GA and a good chunk of NC. So we can all count on snowy conditions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I'm not quite sure this recent event has anything to do with this Winter having extreme weather. What happened in SC is one of those very rare things people say don't happen. There were a lot of factors that aligned correctly. On another note.. I just got around to catching up on this thread and learned a valuable lesson of not throwing a model solution out the window and thinking of a bust as quickly. While I never really called a bust, the timing was off and I was a relieved I didn't wake up to 7" of rain on Saturday morning. In fact, I started to say "yeah, it's staying on the coast". By 10PM that night, it was becoming apparent that many were throwing the towel in too early, including myself. Fast forward 6 hours or so, and the weather alerts are going off for Civil Emergencies to not leave my house. I'll keep this event in mind and learn from it. Also Buckeye, my post earlier about recovering quickly on the other thread was more geared to how the people of South Carolina are handling this situation. There are many other places in the country that wouldn't be nearly as resilient as we have been during this. I think we are coming along nicely and working together in ways other areas fail to. I've got to say that with all of the tragedy recently in South Carolina, the people here are nothing short of amazing It's not just in one area either. It's the whole state showing what it means to pay it forward and helping your neighbor. As bad as it is, it just makes you smile knowing we are all part of rebuilding a better South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I've got to say that with all of the tragedy recently in South Carolina, the people here are nothing short of amazing It's not just in one area either. It's the whole state showing what it means to pay it forward and helping your neighbor. As bad as it is, it just makes you smile knowing we are all part of rebuilding a better South Carolina I got a birds eye view of this when Fran came through Raleigh. Most people are good folks in spite of what you see on TV. Our network of company dealerships (28) are putting together care packages to take down to SC this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I got a birds eye view of this when Fran came through Raleigh. Most people are good folks in spite of what you see on TV. Our network of company dealerships (28) are putting together care packages to take down to SC this weekend. Yes they are This is something I have witnessed since I was a little girl in the Xenia tornado, the historical winters in the 70's, massive flooding in Tucson, Hurricane Hugo, and now The Flood of the Millennium The outpouring of support is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 As of 6PM local news saying the rain will be light .25-1/2 inch. Sure hope the Euro, UKMET and other modeling are wrong on their last runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Why do packbacker's attached images always run off the side of the page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.