packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I wonder why whenever the models show such extreme solutions it never works out that way. Or maybe the question should be why do the models show such extreme solutions as often as they do, especially when it comes to snow totals around here. Only doesn't work for our area, expect it again for this winter. Although I could care less about 1" or 5" of rain but if this was winter/snow this would be hard to swallow. Someone is going to get 10-15" of rain, my guess is CAE and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Until I see something significant on radar, I'm not taking any of this 12+ inches of rain nonsense seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I wonder why whenever the models show such extreme solutions it never works out that way. Or maybe the question should be why do the models show such extreme solutions as often as they do, especially when it comes to snow totals around here.the trick is not to listen to the model hype. Extreme events are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 the trick is not to listen to the model hype. Extreme events are rare. I know. I just wonder why the models seem to go so extreme so often when we actually have a shot at a good system producing rain, snow, and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 the trick is not to listen to the model hype. Extreme events are rare. Yes. That sums it up. No matter what the models say, crazy stuff rarely happens because it's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm ready for my 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm ready for my 12" No you didnt! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm ready for my 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I for one hope I'm on the western side of the sharp cut off of flooding rains. Already has 2" since yesterday and have to fish tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No you didnt! Lol The most I've ever had while living here, was almost 9" on that wonderful Feb day a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I know. I just wonder why the models seem to go so extreme so often when we actually have a shot at a good system producing rain, snow, and storms.Models show all the possible solutions. Usually, Weather weenies only latch on to the extreme solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The most I've ever had while living here, was almost 9" on that wonderful Feb day a few years ago Well, that's above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I had no idea this event was a bust until I logged in today. Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm ready for my 12" Pervert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pervert. Shush it mister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is probably the worst performing ULL I have ever seen....Joaquin must have sucked in all the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm looking at the Meteogram Generator for KRDU, which also shows recent current conditions. It looks like the only thing the models have gotten right today so far is the wind direction and dewpoint. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Models show all the possible solutions. Usually, Weather weenies only latch on to the extreme solutions. I was talking more about when the majority of them keep showing extreme solutions. Just wonder why that happens. Something with the models, or something different in the atmosphere causing those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS gave me 17.86" last run lol. Better get my inner tube ready so I can float to the Clemson game. I doubt we even get double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Time to cancel these flood watches and get this good weekend of college football started. Sorry weather channel, no ratings this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Jim Cantore, Robert, HPC, local NWS are all wasting their breath! The pros here are guaranteeing nobody in the Carolinas will get more than 8" of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS gave me 17.86" last run lol. Better get my inner tube ready so I can float to the Clemson game. I doubt we even get double digits.Take whatever you want to the game, a once in a 1000 year event, won't make Clemson win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 My sidewalks are dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I for one will be happy if the models are wrong about all this rain this weekend. If it were snow, a whole other ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I can't help but comparing this type of thing to what we see in the winter...and I always have a rule to not trust any storm for CLT that's going to bring moisture from the Atlantic from the east (as opposed to a storm tapping gulf moisture heading east). It never gets far enough west and/or the qpf is always way over done. I could be wrong and we could get some good amounts due to this special meteorological situation, but if I were a betting man I think the good money is on the highest amounts staying east nearer the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wait. Wasn't it supposed to rain in GSO today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Worst bust in years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I can't help but comparing this type of thing to what we see in the winter...and I always have a rule to not trust any storm for CLT that's going to bring moisture from the Atlantic from the west (as opposed to a storm tapping gulf moisture heading east). It never gets far enough west and/or the qpf is always way over done. I could be wrong and we could get some good amounts due to this special meteorological situation, but if I were a betting man I think the good money is on the highest amounts staying east nearer the coast.Models spitting out crazy numbers can only be ignored in winter! Think Euro snow maps I think somebody could easily " bullseye" with 15" IMO ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 If this is how winter forecasts will be this coming season, I'm just not going to pay attention until I actually see frozen precipitation falling from the sky. Just surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah last night when I said some map from some met in NC was ridiculous, everyone jumped my ass. And what is wrong with the temp icon, I have been at 70 for 2 weeks... This is the map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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