Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GFS and Euro do still have the heavy rain making it back to GA and of course SC, but for the first time in a while, the axis of the heaviest rain has shifted to the northeast on a couple of models. I'm still in the 4-5 inch range or so, but that 1 model has GSP down to 1.26 inches with less SW of there. Someone does look to get a ton of rain for sure though. GEFS & Euro ensemble means are 10 inches(latest run, was around 8) and 8 inches in that order at KCAE. They have been pretty consistent. Where the heavier bands set up, nobody knows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Fishel just tooted the Euro's horn saying it scored another major victory. Says Raleigh is looking at 2-5" possible mostly before Saturday. Could have a lull for most of the afternoon on Saturday. The other models really need help if this ends up like the Euro has been saying all along. Still, if it doesn't end up being much rain here then it feels like the snow storms and a major bust outside 24 hours with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 WIS is using words like catastrophic even fatal rain amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Are you looking at the jshetley model? GFS has close to 5" for your area -- Along with every other model. I just now saw the GFS and yeah it does still have that 5 inches of rain here, and actually shifted slightly SW with the heavier stuff through hour 75. Maybe looking at the RPM model wasn't the best thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Interesting watching the different sources of moisture going on right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I just now saw the GFS and yeah it does still have that 5 inches of rain here, and actually shifted slightly SW with the heavier stuff through hour 75. Maybe looking at the RPM model wasn't the best thing to do. Just in the last few minutes, the RPM in my area jumped from 4 in to over 7.5 inches. That by far the lowest of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With the orientation of the rain bands coming in from the SE moving NW the SE slopes of the blue ridge will jackpot. Some places should easily surpass 10 inches with 15 a possibility. And no the models wont pick that up especially lower resolution ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With the orientation of the rain bands coming in from the SE moving NW the SE slopes of the blue ridge will jackpot. Some places should easily surpass 10 inches with 15 a possibility. And no the models wont pick that up especially lower resolution ones Hi-Res NAM picking up on some of it on the 18z run. Floyd County had an 8.81" jackpot. Keeps increasing every run. Just for reference, the majority of SW VA has already seen over 4" of rain with some reports of up to 16" in the Floyd County region. 2"-3" alone will cause problems, but the 5"-6"+ totals the NAM is showing won't be good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yup the Dan is still over 13 feet here and 4-5 inches of rain should put it over 20 easily and into moderate flood stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 State of emergency in SC now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well I love a rainy night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 yup over 12 for the Blue Ridge.. landslides will be a big concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well I love a rainy night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sky just got light and sun popped out for a brief sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 image.png Isnt that the RPM model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 image.png That is a huge bust for gsp. Which I am ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That is a huge bust for gsp. Which I am ok with that.RPM= Suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Last map I saw posted by NWS still showed Greenville with over 13" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From what I understand, the RPM is basically the 4KM WRF/ARW for those with access to it. RPM just looks fancier. Is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 image.png That map is ridiculously inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That map is ridiculously inaccurate. and why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 and why is that? RPM had me getting 2 inches of liquid six hours before or last "big" winter storm. The GFS showed me getting 1/2 inch of liquid. Actual liquid that fell imby; .37 inches. Moral of the story... The rpm is garbage Edit to add: A Euro/GFS blend for qpf at 72,48,24, and 12 hours will outperform any of the short range model outputs 90% of the time. IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 RPM had me getting 2 inches of liquid six hours before or last "big" winter storm. The GFS showed me getting 1/2 inch of liquid. Actual liquid that fell imby; .37 inches. Moral of the story... The rpm is garbage I was more trying to ask a weenie to back what he is saying...and trust me his answer won't be anything close to yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was more trying to ask a weenie to back what he is saying...and trust me his answer won't be anything close to yours. Yea, I was looking back through the our winter storm threads last year and forgot how badly the short range models busted with our last winter storm. The RAP especially did awful. It reminded me to never trust the short-range qpf totals. And a Global blend is generally a better guideline to use as an event gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 From Robert FB Post: We now have good agreement that the Hurricane will not be pulled inland, but that's still no reason to let your guard down anywhere up and down the East Coast . As you know by now, no model is ever right all the time in the outlooks on a hurricane's trackBut we should be more interested the flooding that is coming. I have been steadfast in my Carolinas, southern Apps region for a while now, based on the incredibly strong upper low that will fetch Atlantic moisture northwest, in a rapid, repeating manner. Long story short here on FB-- A once in a 50 Year type of Flood Event is coming to almost All the Southern Appalachians and portions of piedmont. Especially hard hit will be Upstate SC to Midlands region , the northern Third and eastern Georgia and the southern Half of North Carolina. By Monday night, things should be winding down. Bridges, road ways, some highways, all over SC and portions of GA, NC , are going to wash out and float away completely This particular region isn't that prone to widespread flooding...its easier, and more common along the East Coast, in the Mountains, and the Gulf Coast, than it is where it's coming this time. The rate of rainfall will be so intense at times (2" per hour possibly) that runoff will become extreme very quickly, with most river basins full and flooding by Sunday. Power Failures and more. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best in this setup. Some where in the red zone could have up to 20" of rainfall by Monday evening. Its impossible to say exactly where, but you get the idea of how serious this is. Lake Lure, down to Greenville-Spartanburg to Columbia and west to Athens, Toccoa, Gainesville are probably in store for the worst of the worst, but you'll want to keep a close watch on your local reports in this unique event Brad Panovich latest video on Carolinas: fb.me/6JOdoccZX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 "Especially hard hit will be the northern third and eastern georgia". I haven't seen any models showing a 50 year flood event for atlanta and I have a hard time believing it could be worse than 2009. He should have said northeast and east Georgia instead of northern third of Georgia which would include Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just posted by Robert...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just posted by Robert...... 7:1 ratio is 133 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Just posted by Robert...... In the words of an faa intern: Ho lee fuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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