StormyClearweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Through 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Awesome! LOL...we get our 2" or so. The 4km goes gangbusters, destroys Florence, we are in the 2-3", pretty stuck on that from every model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 LOL...we get our 2" or so. The 4km goes gangbusters, destroys Florence, we are in the 2-3", pretty stuck on that from every model... I never liked Florence anyway. This looks to be bullseyeing the midlands along 1-20 and the totals for the upstate seem to be coming down to 10 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking like the cutoff is about to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If somebody does get somewhere in the neighborhood of 20"+ inches of rain, that would compare to the localized flooding west of Atlanta in 2009. It was pretty catastrophic over a localized area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Through 69 lol, since when is the EURO the new NAM?? Usually it's the NAM that usually "NAM's" us. Now we're getting EURO'd with qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 LOL...we get our 2" or so. The 4km goes gangbusters, destroys Florence, we are in the 2-3", pretty stuck on that from every model... Probably be down to an inch or so tomorrow, given the trends. The NAM brings the hurricane back toward the OBX though. You know it'll be right since it's only 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Updated wpc discussion and map. For the ga folks, As expected they did expand totals south and west a bit more into ga. Sorry gsp to columbia....they only show a max of 18.5 inches rather than 20... DAYS 2/3......EASTERN U.S....WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS...THERE IS A GROWING MODEL SIGNALFOR VERY HEAVY...AND POSSIBLY HISTORIC RAINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHESLIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SC INTO WESTERN NC AND FAR NORTHERN GA. ANUPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE TN VALLEY TODAY IS FORECAST TOCONTINUE TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH...ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT ANDLOWERING HEIGHTS TO 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THEIR NORM AS ITREACHES THE EASTERN GULF COAST FRI EVENING. FROM THERE THE MODELSSHOW THE LOW DRIFTING SLOWER TO THE EAST ALONG THE FL/GABORDER...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN EVENING. ACCENTUATEDBY A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERNU.S....THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VIGOROUSSOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS NOW GENERALLY AGREETHAT HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROMTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN ACROSS THIS REGION BY THEAFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW...BOLSTERING THE MOISTURE FLUX. COINCIDENT WITH 40-50 KTS WINDS AT 850 MB...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWFMAINTAIN 1.75-2+ IN PWS FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONTTOWARD THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE-SCALEFORCING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERALINCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE...CENTEREDACROSS SC INTO THE WESTERN NC. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL AGREE ONWIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVERCONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY VARIATIONS IN THE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OFHEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WPC AMOUNTS INITIALLY RELIED HEAVILY ON THE 00ZECMWF...THEN WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ADJUSTED THE AXIS SLIGHTLY TO THESOUTH AND FURTHER TO THE WEST INTO NORTHERN GA. THE DAY 2EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED...INDICATING AWIDESPREAD MODERATE RISK ACROSS SC..WESTERN AND CENTRAL NC ANDSOUTHWESTERN VA. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE DAY 3 ASWELL...INDICATING A MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF SC INTO WESTERNNC AND FAR EASTERN TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Probably be down to an inch or so tomorrow, given the trends. The NAM brings the hurricane back toward the OBX though. You know it'll be right since it's only 84 hours out. Everybody knows you can always take Mammy Nammy's 84-hour solution to the bank. Speaking of: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Probably be down to an inch or so tomorrow, given the trends. The NAM brings the hurricane back toward the OBX though. You know it'll be right since it's only 84 hours out. We can pray, a little shift could get us down below 2" very easily and since this is the NAM you have to half anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ouch, keep posting in the wrong sections! Haha.. anyways moving this here: Once again the 12z Euro Ensemble mean has around 8 inches in KCAE proper. It has been showing this for a while now and agrees with the GEFS around the same amounts from recent runs. With that said, it looks like the 12z GEFS from today has a mean of 10 inches. I'd say 6-10" is a good forecast currently for KCAE. Of course this all goes out the window where heavier banding sets up/stalls possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We can pray, a little shift could get us down below 2" very easily and since this is the NAM you have to half anyways. Half the NAM even though the Euro shows twice as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Half the NAM even though the Euro shows twice as much? Only for RDU you half NAM amounts, everywhere else should be good. 4km NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GSO and CLT clean up on this RPM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ^ Thats nuts. Greensboro and Asheboro are 30 miles apart yet that model gives almost 4 inches of rain difference out of this entire mess. Some spotty values in there lol. Rock hill 14 inches but Monroe donw the road 7. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ^ Thats nuts. Greensboro and Asheboro are 30 miles apart yet that model gives almost 4 inches of rain difference out of this entire mess. Some spotty values in there lol. Rock hill 14 inches but Monroe donw the road 7. Hmmm RGEM just spit out 110mm for Raleigh, about the highest yet on any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 WIS is doing special coverage of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GSO and CLT clean up on this RPM run... Other models still giving KCAE 10-15 Inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Fishel just tooted the Euro's horn saying it scored another major victory. Says Raleigh is looking at 2-5" possible mostly before Saturday. Could have a lull for most of the afternoon on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is starting to perhaps trend back to the northeast. Ga and parts of western SC may only be getting 1-2 inches if this is a trend and it keeps up. This may be going back to where it was earlier this week with it being a NC threat and leaving much of SC with only fairly small amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This got my attention in the GSP discussion. WILL REISSUE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH AN EMPHASIS ON DEBRIS FLOW OVER THE NC/SC/GA HIGH TERRAIN WHERE UPWARDS OF 8-12 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIFE THREATENING LAND/MUD SLIDES. This would occur late in the event and has the potential to close roads for quite a long period of time. I would definitely be stocked up on supplies if I lived in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is starting to perhaps trend back to the northeast. Ga and parts of western SC may only be getting 1-2 inches if this is a trend and it keeps up. This may be going back to where it was earlier this week with it being a NC threat and leaving much of SC with only fairly small amounts. If anything, the Euro shifted south/west, and it's been leading the way all along. That doesn't make it right or wrong - but I think the point is that no model really knows where that deform band will setup, though most seem to be focusing it on Central SC. But let's be honest: we'll probably still be in the dark about who "jackpots" at this point tomorrow. A couple of weeks ago, I would've been thrilled with 2 inches of rain - and I still will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Fishel just tooted the Euro's horn saying it scored another major victory. Says Raleigh is looking at 2-5" possible mostly before Saturday. Could have a lull for most of the afternoon on Saturday. Yeah, Sat looks like it could be anywhere from drizzle to just mostly cloudy. Tomorrow we wake up to pouring rain and it rains most of the day but should lighten up by evening. That is probably the worst of it for us, the fun then begins for SC and w-NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is starting to perhaps trend back to the northeast. Ga and parts of western SC may only be getting 1-2 inches if this is a trend and it keeps up. This may be going back to where it was earlier this week with it being a NC threat and leaving much of SC with only fairly small amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is starting to perhaps trend back to the northeast. Ga and parts of western SC may only be getting 1-2 inches if this is a trend and it keeps up. This may be going back to where it was earlier this week with it being a NC threat and leaving much of SC with only fairly small amounts. Don't bother looking at the short range hi-res model qpf output past 24 hours. Actually, they are normally worthless inside of 24 hours as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GFS and Euro do still have the heavy rain making it back to GA and of course SC, but for the first time in a while, the axis of the heaviest rain has shifted to the northeast on a couple of models. I'm still in the 4-5 inch range or so, but that 1 model has GSP down to 1.26 inches with less SW of there. Someone does look to get a ton of rain for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If somebody does get somewhere in the neighborhood of 20"+ inches of rain, that would compare to the localized flooding west of Atlanta in 2009. It was pretty catastrophic over a localized area. at least this time people are warned ahead of time. That event wasn't forecast days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Big shift on the 18z GFS, jackpots NW GA and sourthern SC now. Before long this will be a FL storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is starting to perhaps trend back to the northeast. Ga and parts of western SC may only be getting 1-2 inches if this is a trend and it keeps up. This may be going back to where it was earlier this week with it being a NC threat and leaving much of SC with only fairly small amounts. Are you looking at the jshetley model? GFS has close to 5" for your area -- Along with every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If somebody does get somewhere in the neighborhood of 20"+ inches of rain, that would compare to the localized flooding west of Atlanta in 2009. It was pretty catastrophic over a localized area. at least this time people are warned ahead of time. That event wasn't forecast days in advance. Of course this event will impact a much larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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