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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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Given the tropical element off the coast along with this big ULL I just don't see how many escape a widespread 5+ inch rainfall. Don't know if I buy 20 inches....but I think there will be a lot over a large area that see flood danger. 

For the most part, the majority of this storm is essentially a noon Thursday to noon Sunday event.  The models have me getting 5-7" in that time period, and by 3:15pm this afternoon, I already had 3.46" in just over an hour.  The atmosphere is an absolute soup, and any rain you get will be torrential.  Based on my very brief experience already, 20" will find someone.

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I don't think i've ever heard gsp sound that grave with regards to flooding/heavy rain before. It reminds me of the afds out of new orleans before katrina.

I know! Isohomey must be off today! :)

What's Glenn Burns' thoughts?

:)! I wonder if they've cancelled schools around here for flooding? I'm talking Monday.

The Clemson game could be in jeopardy, I don't care how great the drainage system is on the field! This is a grave situation !

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I know it's going to be bad... but I really think the message GSP sends is a little on the extreme side.

Well if 15 to 20 inches of rain falls, there will be  catastrophic flooding for sure which is bad enough but due to the rates that could happen, deadly flash flooding in elevated areas  certainly is very real. .  So I understand why they are being strong with their language.  It's just jolting and shocking (even though we know the potential) to see gsp or any office use such strong wording.

I am sure they feel it is better safe than sorry. They are probably making sure people pay attn.

I'm sure there will be quite a few people thinking it has something to do with the hurricane and since it's forecasted to not make landfall locally, they might brush it aside. Certainly important to make it clear to people that it's likely to happen regardless.

I know you are surprised by their conservative approach:

 

FFC:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE

JOAQUIN. PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON QPF. HIGHEST

AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...SATURDAY

AND EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL BE

GOING WITH A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST GA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLASH

FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS. SHIFTS IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL

ALSO DETERMINE WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO THE WATCH.

DRYING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND A MORE

ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED IN THE LONG TERM.

 I can't say i really disagree with them though since in general much of the area is showing to get those amounts plus we  still got a ways to go and it could trend slightly back eastward. Considering the very tight gradient every model has, it wouldn't take much of a shift to significantly diminish totals here in ga.   SC seems to be in the bullseye no matter what so i think it's safe to give out those amounts there. That said, they probably could have been a bit more bullish over the far northeast/mountains or at least highlight the fact there could be much more there.

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that's still a lot compared to what you've had the last few months !

Very good point ! I don't want devastation , but maybe atleast break the 10.42" inch Monthly October record! October is usually are detest month! The Daily record for GSP , for any month is 12.30 in August of 1995 , a tropical system, Jerry
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Well at least we SC posters don't have to talk about needing rain for quite a while.  People really aren't taking this too seriously in my area.  Someone literally asked me earlier if it was going to be sunny since the hurricane isn't coming anymore.

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