Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FFC issued a flash food watch for northeast and east ga. Doesn't include Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Given the tropical element off the coast along with this big ULL I just don't see how many escape a widespread 5+ inch rainfall. Don't know if I buy 20 inches....but I think there will be a lot over a large area that see flood danger. For the most part, the majority of this storm is essentially a noon Thursday to noon Sunday event. The models have me getting 5-7" in that time period, and by 3:15pm this afternoon, I already had 3.46" in just over an hour. The atmosphere is an absolute soup, and any rain you get will be torrential. Based on my very brief experience already, 20" will find someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't think i've ever heard gsp sound that grave with regards to flooding/heavy rain before. It reminds me of the afds out of new orleans before katrina.I know! Isohomey must be off today! What's Glenn Burns' thoughts? ! I wonder if they've cancelled schools around here for flooding? I'm talking Monday. The Clemson game could be in jeopardy, I don't care how great the drainage system is on the field! This is a grave situation ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The clown maps would be a thing of beauty. Could you imagine most of South Carolina getting 150-200 inches of snow on the clown maps. Brick would only get 15-20 inches . Good one. That would be more snow than the tug hill plateau in NY. Shetley would get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FFC issued a flash food watch for northeast and east ga. Doesn't include Atlanta.I'm sorry you won't get 10-20 inches of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm sorry you won't get 10-20 inches of rain! lol we don't need it. Its been wet enough. I'll take my 1-2 inches and be happy. I'd rather it be dry and sunny but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'll take CMC and raise GFS What a piece of crap model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 States of emergencies declared already in NC, VA, and NJ, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Flash Flood Watch for Charleston area thru SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 States of emergencies declared already in NC, VA, and NJ, lol Did Christie raid another Buffet? wonder if SC is gonna pull the trigger too seeing what all the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think being in Jersey is always a state of emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Did Christie raid another Buffet? wonder if SC is gonna pull the trigger too seeing what all the models are showing.They are on OPCON 4, whatever that is! Just said on local fox 4 I clock news! The mets are still saying rain totals are dependent on the closeness Joaquin makes to the coast! Clueless ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think being in Jersey is always a state of emergency. Quote of the year, no question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z EPS, solid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I know it's going to be bad... but I really think the message GSP sends is a little on the extreme side. Well if 15 to 20 inches of rain falls, there will be catastrophic flooding for sure which is bad enough but due to the rates that could happen, deadly flash flooding in elevated areas certainly is very real. . So I understand why they are being strong with their language. It's just jolting and shocking (even though we know the potential) to see gsp or any office use such strong wording. I am sure they feel it is better safe than sorry. They are probably making sure people pay attn. I'm sure there will be quite a few people thinking it has something to do with the hurricane and since it's forecasted to not make landfall locally, they might brush it aside. Certainly important to make it clear to people that it's likely to happen regardless. I know you are surprised by their conservative approach: FFC: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN. PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON QPF. HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...SATURDAY AND EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL BE GOING WITH A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST GA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS. SHIFTS IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO THE WATCH. DRYING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED IN THE LONG TERM. I can't say i really disagree with them though since in general much of the area is showing to get those amounts plus we still got a ways to go and it could trend slightly back eastward. Considering the very tight gradient every model has, it wouldn't take much of a shift to significantly diminish totals here in ga. SC seems to be in the bullseye no matter what so i think it's safe to give out those amounts there. That said, they probably could have been a bit more bullish over the far northeast/mountains or at least highlight the fact there could be much more there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z EPS, solid.... Those numbers look pretty reasonable to me...alot of rain, but perhaps not as crazy as the op proposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 RPM model gives us a whopping, historic, once-in - a thousand years .42 EVENT TOTAL, from Fri-Sun! Guess I was wrong about model concensus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 RPM model gives us a whopping, historic, once-in - a thousand years .42 EVENT TOTAL, from Fri-Sun! Guess I was wrong about model concensus! Lol, we'll send Jon boats down! Just let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Charleston County schools cancelled for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 RPM model gives us a whopping, historic, once-in - a thousand years .42 EVENT TOTAL, from Fri-Sun! Guess I was wrong about model concensus! that's still a lot compared to what you've had the last few months ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z EPS, solid.... Looks rather conservative to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks rather conservative to me. Isn't it the mean? If so, that's pretty robust for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol, we'll send Jon boats down! Just let me know. RPM??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isn't it the mean? If so, that's pretty robust for a mean. You're right if thats the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 that's still a lot compared to what you've had the last few months !Very good point ! I don't want devastation , but maybe atleast break the 10.42" inch Monthly October record! October is usually are detest month! The Daily record for GSP , for any month is 12.30 in August of 1995 , a tropical system, Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isn't it the mean? If so, that's pretty robust for a mean. Yes, it's the mean, 6-10" across all of SC is fairly big. I think NAM is about to flex it's muscles with large amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes, it's the mean, 6-10" across all of SC is fairly big. I think NAM is about to flex it's muscles with large amounts. Do we still get our half an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Do we still get our half an inch? Yeah and wind gusts to 7mph per good old GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes, it's the mean, 6-10" across all of SC is fairly big. I think NAM is about to flex it's muscles with large amounts. That is a very big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well at least we SC posters don't have to talk about needing rain for quite a while. People really aren't taking this too seriously in my area. Someone literally asked me earlier if it was going to be sunny since the hurricane isn't coming anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.