Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What was the Euro QPF output? Not quite as extreme as the 0z run but honestly the 0z run was end of the world type totals so no surprise there. Still has a large swath of 8 to 12+ inches with the axis centered over sc. Columbia looks like ground zero for heaviest totals still. Other than that, the main difference between the 0z and this run is it in general moved the axis of heavy totals south some. So georgia, in particular north/northeast ga get more/a lot, while nc sees a little less than the last run. But it's sort of just splitting hairs since the setup looks more or less the same and the models are going to waver a bit from run to run with exact amounts. The bottom line is there is still a crap load of rain and widespread flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 OMG..... 3 day total with more to follow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not quite as extreme as the 0z run but honestly the 0z run was end of the world type totals so no surprise there. Still has a large swath of 8 to 12+ inches with the axis centered over sc. Columbia looks like ground zero for heaviest totals still. Other than that, the main difference between the 0z and this run is it in general moved the axis of heavy totals south some. So georgia, in particular north/northeast ga get more/a lot, while nc sees a little less than the last run. But it's sort of just splitting hairs since the setup looks more or less the same and the models are going to waver a bit from run to run with exact amounts. The bottom line is there is still a crap load of rain and widespread flooding potential. Whats it showing for Columbia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even if a foot of rain did fall in some places, isn't it better that it's spread out over days instead of over a couple hours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 OMG..... 3 day total with more to follow!! That is just ridiculous...absolutely insane. Based on todays runs, i think the truly excessive/extreme amounts make it into the eastern half/northern part of ga more than shown there. With the euro spreading more into the state, in particular northeast ga..it matches up pretty well with the gfs and canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even if a foot of rain did fall in some places, isn't it better that it's spread out over days instead of over a couple hours ? I think the only thing that would be different is it would take longer for it to flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Weather Channel now has us in the 18+ range. They just used the term "biblical" on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A few things, these ULL's tend to overperform widespread. It always sucks in the winter cause we've been fooled so many times but amount of moisture with it tends to always be strong. Given the tropical element off the coast along with this big ULL I just don't see how many escape a widespread 5+ inch rainfall. Don't know if I buy 20 inches....but I think there will be a lot over a large area that see flood danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not quite as extreme as the 0z run but honestly the 0z run was end of the world type totals so no surprise there. Still has a large swath of 8 to 12+ inches with the axis centered over sc. Columbia looks like ground zero for heaviest totals still. Other than that, the main difference between the 0z and this run is it in general moved the axis of heavy totals south some. So georgia, in particular north/northeast ga get more/a lot, while nc sees a little less than the last run. But it's sort of just splitting hairs since the setup looks more or less the same and the models are going to waver a bit from run to run with exact amounts. The bottom line is there is still a crap load of rain and widespread flooding potential. Thanks. Yeah, I agree. The way the flow is oriented, the hose is just pointed right through SC and into Ga. Gonna be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A few things, these ULL's tend to overperform widespread. It always sucks in the winter cause we've been fooled so many times but amount of moisture with it tends to always be strong. Given the tropical element off the coast along with this big ULL I just don't see how many escape a widespread 5+ inch rainfall. Don't know if I buy 20 inches....but I think there will be a lot over a large area that see flood danger. Hey Burg how are ya man? Good to see everyone still here since last winter. Hey do you think the models are under doing the enhancement against the mountains of the Appalachians with that low level jet or is what is depicted pretty accurate? I'm still real nervous about my area with flooding. My parents are about 10 min from downtown charleston so that is real scary in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also, It's pouring here right now. We've gotten 1/2 inch in the last hour and we picked up a .60 earlier this morning. Storms seem to be gaining strength and are basically not moving so I wouldn't be suprised if we picked up another inch or two this afternoon. Maybe it's time to start an OBS thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From WIS-TV in Columbia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From WIS-TV in Columbia: Charleston may hit 12 inches today. Also it has been raining pretty good in the NW corner of the state for a couple of hours. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From GSP: ..HISTORIC POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... SYNOPSIS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ATOP THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/ AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING IN PREVIOUS AFDS...MIDLEVEL LOW HAS CUT OFF OVER TN/KY...WITH ELONGATED FRONT STRETCHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING. VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE AREA...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ADD TO THIS. UPPER JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE BEGINS POOLING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. NEAR RECORD-LEVEL PW VALUES WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA...WITH TRAJECTORIES BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN AND SLAMMING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT PICKS UP AS WELL AND WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A RAINFALL EVENT OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IN COMPARISON...WITH FAY IN 2008 WE HAD WIDESPREAD 6 OR SO INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS...IN 1995 WE HAD UP TO 20 INCHES WITH JERRY. STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...SPECIFICALLY THE I-26 CORRIDOR...IS OVER 10 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MORE ON THE SHORT TERM BELOW. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS EVENT. AVOID GETTING OUT ON THE ROADS THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF POSSIBLE. REMEMBER IT TAKES ONLY A FOOT OF WATER TO MOVE A CAR...AND IF WATER IS OVER THE ROAD THERE IS NO WAY FOR YOU TO KNOW IF THE ROAD IS STILL THERE. TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN! ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM... THE LANDSLIDE/DEBRIS FLOW RISK WILL RAMP UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. SEE PNS ISSUED AT 1237 PM TODAY WITH SOME PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION FOR LANDSLIDES. BEYOND THE RAIN...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STEADY BETWEEN 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25MPH OR SO...WITH WEAKENED ROOT SYSTEMS FROM THE RECENT RAIN IT IS POSSIBLE SOME TREES MAY START COMING DOWN AS WINDS PICK UP. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/ AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES FRIDAY EVENING AMIDST THE ONSET OF A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN...YIELDING LITTLE TO NO IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR OUR AREA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL BE THE CUTOFF H5 LOW PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AMPLE UPPER LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS THANKS TO POTENT UPPER JETMAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS BACKWARDS PARCEL TRAJECTORIES INDICATE MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL AID DAMMING/WEDGING AND THUS PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF A FORE MENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID...THE POTENTIAL FOR CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LOOKS TO BE ON THE RISE. LATEST WPC QPF SUPPORTS TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 12-14 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG THE I26 CORRIDOR. OPTED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON SAID WPC TOTALS...WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH LOWERED TOTALS A BIT. AS FOR THE FCST...LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...INTO MID/LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. WILL REISSUE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH AN EMPHASIS ON DEBRIS FLOW OVER THE NC/SC/GA HIGH TERRAIN WHERE UPWARDS OF 8-12 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIFE THREATENING LAND/MUD SLIDES. MODELS FAVOR GRADUAL RELIEF INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST...WITH POPS COMPLYING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sounds like the southern escarpment is really gonna get drilled with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Kind of surprised the SREF is "only" showing 6.9 inches of rain for downtown Greenville. I am happy but major models showing much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That is just ridiculous...absolutely insane. Based on todays runs, i think the truly excessive/extreme amounts make it into the eastern half/northern part of ga more than shown there. With the euro spreading more into the state, in particular northeast ga..it matches up pretty well with the gfs and canadian. The MONTLY record rainfall at GSP for October is 10.24", so just wrap your head around that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Kind of surprised the SREF is "only" showing 6.9 inches of rain for downtown Greenville. I am happy but major models showing much higher.You should know from wintertime , SREF sucks! Constantly wrong all summer long with regards to rain, also ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't think i've ever heard gsp sound that grave with regards to flooding/heavy rain before. It reminds me of the afds out of new orleans before katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 OMG..... 3 day total with more to follow!! So the 0 in 20 is right over your place right Good lord that is a lot of rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't think i've ever heard gsp sound that grave with regards to flooding/heavy rain before. It reminds me of the afds out of new orleans before katrina. I know it's going to be bad... but I really think the message GSP sends is a little on the extreme side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The MONTLY record rainfall at GSP for October is 10.24", so just wrap your head around that The record at KCAE is 12.09 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't think i've ever heard gsp sound that grave with regards to flooding/heavy rain before. It reminds me of the afds out of new orleans before katrina. There will be alot of roads and bridges washed out if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The MONTLY record rainfall at GSP for October is 10.24", so just wrap your head around that if we get the rain that is forecasted....my home in Taylors will for sure be flooded. Please pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I know it's going to be bad... but I really think the message GSP sends is a little on the extreme side. I am sure they feel it is better safe than sorry. They are probably making sure people pay attn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That is just ridiculous...absolutely insane. Based on todays runs, i think the truly excessive/extreme amounts make it into the eastern half/northern part of ga more than shown there. With the euro spreading more into the state, in particular northeast ga..it matches up pretty well with the gfs and canadian. I know you are surprised by their conservative approach: FFC: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN. PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON QPF. HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...SATURDAY AND EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL BE GOING WITH A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST GA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS. SHIFTS IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO THE WATCH. DRYING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED IN THE LONG TERM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I can't help but be skeptical about this much rain. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I am sure they feel it is better safe than sorry. They are probably making sure people pay attn. I agree, Its the same as when the issued the infamous afd the day before Katrina struck. Katrina ended up killing between 1,246 and 1,836 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 if we get the rain that is forecasted....my home in Taylors will for sure be flooded. Please prayYeah, it's starting to get a little scary, especially with the model consensus ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, it's starting to get a little scary, especially with the model consensus ! I have never in my life seen so much consesus across the board for such extreme amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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