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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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GFS after the initial downpour in NC keeps the really bad flooding into South Carolina...not sure I am buying that. A lot of SC is in the 5-10 inches of rain area while most of NC is in 3 - 6. I would suspect a line from RDU down past GSP would be more in the 4-8 mark...but looking out for myself I hope it stays minimal and the GFS is on to something for this region. 

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For Central NC... RAH zones...

TONIGHT: AS CLOSED LOW GAINS SOUTHERN LATITUDE...IT WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE STALLED FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING PLUME WESTWARD WITH AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS...WITH WIDEPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...2.0" OF RAIN IN A SHORT 60-90 MINUTE PERIOD WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.  MUCH COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60/LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. 
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According to the GFS, the big expansive rainfall map from the WPC needs to be shaved down to southern NC, SC, and GA. North of there, you get some clouds and showers.

Yep, this is a SC event, SW NC could be 8-10". We are 2" or so and then Sat/Sun we are mostly dry, not bad.

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By hour 90 most of SC has 12+ inches of rain. 

I'm jealous...only about 10 to 12 inches here :whistle::lol:

 

South Carolina should be calling for a state of emergecency, not Virginia/New Jersey.

 

The GFS drops 12+ inches on basically the whole state!

Yeah this really looks like a possibly once in a life time type event, possibly even longer, for a non tropical system. And what's scary is i have a feeling it's under estimated if that axis of precip stalls as long as it might. Very serious situation for river systems, flood prone areas and even areas that aren't used to or very rarely experience flooding. It really is scary when you think about the fact that the ground is already saturated.

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Mr Goofy......I've got two words for ya......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

just wow   :P

I have 3 words for you...buy a boat!

 

It's pretty impressive that these extreme amounts have been very consistent on the models for south carolina, regardless of the track of joaquin

 

another look.

 

gfs_apcpn_seus_16.png

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All of this is so confusing, so I just want to make sure. This is a weekend event for SC right ? By Monday it should dry out?

 

From the sky, yes...but it takes time for a river to dry out.  This will impact the region for the better part of a week I would guess with power outages, travel issues, probably school closures.

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I have 3 words for you...buy a boat!

 

It's incredible that these extreme amounts have been very consistent on the models for south carolina, regardless of the track of joaquin

 

another look.

 

 

:lol:   I may need to  :lol:  It's been a long time since I've seen rain like what these models are spitting out, and that is when I lived in AZ during the 80's. I've never seen anything like this in the 27 years I've been here, that's for sure. I'm headed out to stock up on more munchies/drinks just because the models are not wavering one single bit on the amounts. Hopefully my home doesn't float away   :P 

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:lol: I may need to :lol: It's been a long time since I've seen rain like what these models are spitting out, and that is when I lived in AZ during the 80's. I've never seen anything like this in the 27 years I've been here, that's for sure. I'm headed out to stock up on more munchies/drinks just because the models are not wavering one single bit on the amounts. Hopefully my home doesn't float away :P

make sure you get a yard stick so you can measure the rain :)
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I'm visiting my sister in Columbia, who had emergency surgery and is still in hospital. She lives (and I'm staying) in her apartment (in Shandon) so no flood worries but it seems I've got a front row to a possibly historic flood event. I suppose my flight out on Saturday is somewhat in jeopardy.

 

When was the last time Columbia had a major rain event?

 

Used to live in Rosewood, worked in Shandon. Both neighborhoods are bad for flooding.

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This reminds me of the big snowstorm we were watching last winter...

 

Every model run kept showing Raleigh getting less and less and less.  Raleigh may get 1-3 inches...  suits me fine!

 

It really is getting just as bad with plain rain and storms as it is with snow now. The models are so erratic with everything but sunny and dry.

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