burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS after the initial downpour in NC keeps the really bad flooding into South Carolina...not sure I am buying that. A lot of SC is in the 5-10 inches of rain area while most of NC is in 3 - 6. I would suspect a line from RDU down past GSP would be more in the 4-8 mark...but looking out for myself I hope it stays minimal and the GFS is on to something for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 By hour 90 most of SC has 12+ inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 South Carolina should be calling for a state of emergecency, not Virginia/New Jersey. The GFS drops 12+ inches on basically the whole state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 According to the GFS, the big expansive rainfall map from the WPC needs to be shaved down to southern NC, SC, and GA. North of there, you get some clouds and showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, the Clemson/ND game on Saturday night should be interesting....and college gameday is in town. Still can't wrap my mind around that much rain falling here. I'm still in the "I'll believe in when I see it" mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Mr Goofy......I've got two words for ya...... just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 For Central NC... RAH zones... TONIGHT: AS CLOSED LOW GAINS SOUTHERN LATITUDE...IT WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE STALLED FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING PLUME WESTWARD WITH AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS...WITH WIDEPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...2.0" OF RAIN IN A SHORT 60-90 MINUTE PERIOD WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. MUCH COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60/LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 According to the GFS, the big expansive rainfall map from the WPC needs to be shaved down to southern NC, SC, and GA. North of there, you get some clouds and showers. Yep, this is a SC event, SW NC could be 8-10". We are 2" or so and then Sat/Sun we are mostly dry, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 By hour 90 most of SC has 12+ inches of rain. I'm jealous...only about 10 to 12 inches here South Carolina should be calling for a state of emergecency, not Virginia/New Jersey. The GFS drops 12+ inches on basically the whole state! Yeah this really looks like a possibly once in a life time type event, possibly even longer, for a non tropical system. And what's scary is i have a feeling it's under estimated if that axis of precip stalls as long as it might. Very serious situation for river systems, flood prone areas and even areas that aren't used to or very rarely experience flooding. It really is scary when you think about the fact that the ground is already saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Strong CAD showing up and continues to tick the heaviest rain south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is inline with the Euro now for location of QPF max, goings to be a long few days for CAE and points east/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Mr Goofy......I've got two words for ya...... just wow I have 3 words for you...buy a boat! It's pretty impressive that these extreme amounts have been very consistent on the models for south carolina, regardless of the track of joaquin another look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All of this is so confusing, so I just want to make sure. This is a weekend event for SC right ? By Monday it should dry out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's crazy.GFS through 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's crazy.GFS through 6 days proa.accuweather.com adcbin professional hazwx.asp.png what's even crazier is that it goes from 2 feet to 2 inches in 50 miles. I think this is going to confuse a lot of the general public into thinking all of this rain is associated with Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All of this is so confusing, so I just want to make sure. This is a weekend event for SC right ? By Monday it should dry out? From the sky, yes...but it takes time for a river to dry out. This will impact the region for the better part of a week I would guess with power outages, travel issues, probably school closures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All of this is so confusing, so I just want to make sure. This is a weekend event for SC right ? By Monday it should dry out?Yeah, it'll be dusty dry by Monday afternoon, after the whole state gets 10-20"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is awesome news for Raleigh. I don't want anything more than 1-2 inches, if that, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, it'll be dusty dry by Monday afternoon, after the whole state gets 10-20"! lol I didn't mean literally dry out. I meant it will stop raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 what's even crazier is that it goes from 2 feet to 2 inches in 50 miles. I think this is going to confuse a lot of the general public into thinking all of this rain is associated with Joaquin. even more,the storm surge for Charleston,man gotta pray for those people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I have 3 words for you...buy a boat! It's incredible that these extreme amounts have been very consistent on the models for south carolina, regardless of the track of joaquin another look. I may need to It's been a long time since I've seen rain like what these models are spitting out, and that is when I lived in AZ during the 80's. I've never seen anything like this in the 27 years I've been here, that's for sure. I'm headed out to stock up on more munchies/drinks just because the models are not wavering one single bit on the amounts. Hopefully my home doesn't float away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This reminds me of the big snowstorm we were watching last winter... Every model run kept showing Raleigh getting less and less and less. Raleigh may get 1-3 inches... suits me fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well I learned a new word today: fujiwhara. Never even heard of it until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I may need to It's been a long time since I've seen rain like what these models are spitting out, and that is when I lived in AZ during the 80's. I've never seen anything like this in the 27 years I've been here, that's for sure. I'm headed out to stock up on more munchies/drinks just because the models are not wavering one single bit on the amounts. Hopefully my home doesn't float away make sure you get a yard stick so you can measure the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm visiting my sister in Columbia, who had emergency surgery and is still in hospital. She lives (and I'm staying) in her apartment (in Shandon) so no flood worries but it seems I've got a front row to a possibly historic flood event. I suppose my flight out on Saturday is somewhat in jeopardy. When was the last time Columbia had a major rain event? Used to live in Rosewood, worked in Shandon. Both neighborhoods are bad for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This reminds me of the big snowstorm we were watching last winter... Every model run kept showing Raleigh getting less and less and less. Raleigh may get 1-3 inches... suits me fine! It really is getting just as bad with plain rain and storms as it is with snow now. The models are so erratic with everything but sunny and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 good grief good grief is right lol - that would be an astounding amount of rain if it were to verify. the ground here is already soaked - if even half of that falls its still a ton of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NWS GSP's latest thoughts. It's crazy that this is probably a conservative map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 UK, is a little NW of GFS with heaviest QPF axis...look out CLT folks. Also, this is only through 72, there is still probably 24 more hours of heavy precip. Pink is 100-150mm White is 150-250mm Black is 250+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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