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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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Turn on the weather channel. Go read their local news. Most of the roads are closed. They deliberately closed the roads onto the peninsula because they didn't want to waste precious resources rescuing tourists. Stay home.

Always difficult to discern the intended tone of the written word. That said, I will simply state that I had every right to fulfill the commitment I made to my wife to take her to Hilton Head for our one year anniversary. We had already booked reservations at the Omni resort a full two months in advance. So, there's no way I was going to "stay home!" Thanks for the suggestion, anyway.

Secondly, I very much dislike what TWC has become (loved it growing up) and refuse to add my personal viewership to their ratings.

Thirdly, I work in the media myself (as I explained in a previous post) and am typically allowed access to areas restricted to the general public...in various situations.

Consequently, I am not some "ambulance chaser" nor like alot of storm chasers (and far too many members of the media) who are most concerned with drawing attention to themselves for some sort of personal gain (i.e. profiting off the hardship of others). In my humble opinion, it's our responsibility to simply document the storm effects with a sense of genuine compassion, and empathy, for those who suffer loss and are enduring significant hardship from these devastating events.

All that aside, and in retrospect, my initial post (and the question contained therein) was fairly unnecessary.

Far more importantly, my thoughts and most heartfelt prayers are with those who have been so adversely impacted by this truly catastrophic event!

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All that aside, and in retrospect, my initial post (and the question contained therein) was fairly unnecessary.

Far more importantly, my thoughts and most heartfelt prayers are with those who have been so adversely impacted by this truly catastrophic event!

 

Given the circumstances - catastrophic rainfall amounts, devastating flooding, officials begging local citizens to stay home, curfews implemented, numerous roads closed to all but residents and in many cases to all traffic, etc., lots of people risking their lives to rescue people on the roads who likely had no real need to be driving through it and should have been sheltering at home or a shelter facility... 

 

...an "I'm going on vacation to the center of it" post along with "and I want to take freelance pictures to sell" kind of sounded well... you saw how we reacted to it.  Glad you see that now.

 

It's super easy for all of us to get very excited about weather, but sometimes it's bad enough and dangerous enough that we shouldn't wish for it or add to it.

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You could never get even close to that much liquid falling in a snow event. For starters, even in the most intense Winter storms, you're lucky to get PWAT's over an inch. During this last few days, PWAT's were on the order of 1.8-2.3". And you had an area of high SBCAPE offshore which also contributed, something else that you don't see during the Winter. 

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Gsp would be complaining about our 6-8 inches.

If CAE received 20" of snow, and we only got 6-8", I could live with that, as long as we weren't forecast to get the 20"! :)

Looks like temps very close to 80 the rest of the week and no rain in sight, which is great! Hopefull now the "flip" to wet, and strong subtropical wetness, will wait till November now!

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You could never get even close to that much liquid falling in a snow event. For starters, even in the most intense Winter storms, you're lucky to get PWAT's over an inch. During this last few days, PWAT's were on the order of 1.8-2.3". And you had an area of high SBCAPE offshore which also contributed, something else that you don't see during the Winter.

Yeah, for some reason, it's hard to get 1-2" liquid equivalent , then you just have to hope for higher ratios like 15:1 and such
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Noobish question.  Would the storm be considered a Nor'easter?  I heard some (other forums) refer to it as such, and I didn't think the ULL classified as one.

 

IMO No.... it did spawn a surface low off the SC coast that fed the ULL plus a tap to Joaquin, these things kinda rule out nor'easter, in my mind this wasn't even close to a classic nor'easter .....since those move up the east coast and usually impact the northeast hence the name and this one isn't going to do that.

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IMO No.... it did spawn a surface low off the SC coast that fed the ULL plus a tap to Joaquin, these things kinda rule out nor'easter, in my mind this wasn't even close to a classic nor'easter .....since those move up the east coast and usually impact the northeast hence the name and this one isn't going to do that.

Actually the nor'easter gets its name for the fact the winds come onshore from the northeast as it moves up the coast.

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Yeah, for some reason, it's hard to get 1-2" liquid equivalent , then you just have to hope for higher ratios like 15:1 and such

Part of that is because cold air is much more dense than warm air, therefore, it simply can not hold the same amount of moisture when the air is cold vs warm. 

 

A mitigating circumstance would be if the system had a strong tropical feed such as with a potent Southern stream system that was able to tap the Gulf. Think of the most blockbuster Miller A's.

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Given the circumstances - catastrophic rainfall amounts, devastating flooding, officials begging local citizens to stay home, curfews implemented, numerous roads closed to all but residents and in many cases to all traffic, etc., lots of people risking their lives to rescue people on the roads who likely had no real need to be driving through it and should have been sheltering at home or a shelter facility...

...an "I'm going on vacation to the center of it" post along with "and I want to take freelance pictures to sell" kind of sounded well... you saw how we reacted to it. Glad you see that now.

It's super easy for all of us to get very excited about weather, but sometimes it's bad enough and dangerous enough that we shouldn't wish for it or add to it.

I share your same viewpoint for all the reasons I mentioned in the preceding post. But, please let me clarify that I wasn't "going on vacation to enter the center of it" nor was I intending, in any way, to profit from others hardship.

Although I naturally took exception to your post stating I should stay home (presumably under the inaccurate impression that I was driving down the coast for that general purpose, as opposed to getting to Hilton Head for my anniversary), I can most certainly see how my initial unnecessary post wasn't very clear (for I too would likely have interpreted it the same way as it was written). That's my fault and I apologize for that.

All that being said, I greatly appreciate your genuine concern for the well being of others and most definitely share the same sentiments, in that regard!

Edit: It took twice as long to get here, in Hilton Head, as my wife and I were driving from the late afternoon on Sunday, and ended up having to drive throughout the entire night. As expected, had to take numerous detours to get here. Just an important FYI, I'm only making these sporadic posts while my wife is sleeping (like my last post) or getting ready for dinner...as is the case right now.

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IMO No.... it did spawn a surface low off the SC coast that fed the ULL plus a tap to Joaquin, these things kinda rule out nor'easter, in my mind this wasn't even close to a classic nor'easter .....since those move up the east coast and usually impact the northeast hence the name and this one isn't going to do that.

As you noted, only if the surface Low is the primary weather system. And, the term "Nor'easter" is directly associated with the fact those systems batter coastal areas with winds from a northeasterly direction...not because they specifically affect the NE areas of the U.S. (although they typically do).

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Yeah, for some reason, it's hard to get 1-2" liquid equivalent , then you just have to hope for higher ratios like 15:1 and such

 The atmostphere is more bouyant in the summer b/c it's hotter and the air particles are less densely packed together. So you can squeeze out more moisture when the particles rise and condense during thunderstorm complexes.... In the winter the atmosphere can't hold the same amount of moisture, so the physics make it impossible to have as much liquid fall during cold atmospheric events.

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