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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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Wow guys , radar looking terrible for Charleston to myrtle beach to Florence tonight, could be some really big totals coming in again. Looks like NC getting hit pretty bad too. What a mess.

Radar shows the band intensifying very quickly and it is raining again very hard in Goose Creek heading towards my area in Ladson again. The area absolutely can't take another round of 3"-6" rains.

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 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0556NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD815 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN SC/COAST OF NC...  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 051214Z - 051644Z SUMMARY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARDWITH THE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC/THE LOWEROUTER BANKS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIONSHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN EXTREMELY HEAVYRAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LOWCURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FL. AWELL-DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE SIGNATURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THISUPPER CYCLONE WHERE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROMHURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE BLENDED-TPW AND GPS DATA SUPPORT ABOVE 2INCH PWATS IMPINGING ON THE NC/SC COASTLINE. MODELS ANDOBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THIS ENHANCED BAND OF MOISTURE GRADUALLYLIFTING NORTHWARD WHICH WILL SLOWLY CARRY THE HEAVY RAINFALLTHREAT INTO THE LOWER OUTER BANKS. CURRENT HOURLY RAINFALL RATESPER METARS AND MESONET DATA SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50INCH AMOUNTS WITH POCKETS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCH VALUES WITHIN THE MOREROBUST PRECIPITATION CORES. OF COURSE ANY RAINFALL ON TOP OF THEEXTREMELY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS EASTERN SC WITH FURTHEREXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.A VAST MAJORITY OF THE RECENT CAMS...INCLUDING THE HOURLY UPDATEMODELS...HAVE BEEN TOO FAR OFFSHORE WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION.THERE IS A DECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL IN THESE MODELS WHICH ISIN LINE WITH THE CURRENTLY THINKING. HOWEVER...SUCH DISPLACEMENTERRORS MADE THE FORECAST QPF AREAS A BIT MORE UNRELIABLE.
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NC has had it's share of rain as well...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 934 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015...RAINFALL REPORTS SINCE SEPTEMBER 25 2015...ASOS STATIONS (0000 EDT 9/25/15 TO 0800 EDT 10/5/15)LOCATION                     AMOUNT    MICHAEL J SMITH AP(KMRH)    17.92 INBILLY MITCHELL AP(KHSE)     13.15 INCOASTAL CAROLINA AP (KEWN)   8.79 INCHERRY POINT MCAS (KNKT)     9.02 INNEW RIVER MCAS (KNCA)        6.61 INCOOP STATIONS (0000 EDT 9/25/15 TO 2400 EDT 10/4/15)GREENVILLE (GREN7)          11.16 INNEWPORT WFO (MHXN7)         12.25 INNOTE: ASOS STATION AMOUNTS INCLUDE UP TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. COOP STATION AMOUNTS ARE UP TO MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. 
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NC has had it's share of rain as well...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 934 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015...RAINFALL REPORTS SINCE SEPTEMBER 25 2015...ASOS STATIONS (0000 EDT 9/25/15 TO 0800 EDT 10/5/15)LOCATION                     AMOUNT    MICHAEL J SMITH AP(KMRH)    17.92 INBILLY MITCHELL AP(KHSE)     13.15 INCOASTAL CAROLINA AP (KEWN)   8.79 INCHERRY POINT MCAS (KNKT)     9.02 INNEW RIVER MCAS (KNCA)        6.61 INCOOP STATIONS (0000 EDT 9/25/15 TO 2400 EDT 10/4/15)GREENVILLE (GREN7)          11.16 INNEWPORT WFO (MHXN7)         12.25 INNOTE: ASOS STATION AMOUNTS INCLUDE UP TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. COOP STATION AMOUNTS ARE UP TO MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. 

 

I have had right at 11" IMBY since last Wed night and we may or may not be in for a few more depending on where this band goes.....2-3" real fast would create a few issues but nothing severe

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Getting a bit nervous watching that band drift north looks rather robust well offshore and is more north and stronger than models had called for ...6-7 hrs under it could put eastern NC over the edge in many places the rivers are just below or right at bank full...there is no where for it to go.

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Getting a bit nervous watching that band drift north looks rather robust well offshore and is more north and stronger than models had called for ...6-7 hrs under it could put eastern NC over the edge in many places the rivers are just below or right at bank full...there is no where for it to go.

Luckily the big band moved thru pretty quickly. Only picked up 1.05" from it. That brings our 10 day total to 10.26". In our area the biggest issue isn't rain flooding but tidal flooding.

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Rain totals from NWS

 

Precip.png

Pretty amazing map. Pretty much the only area to get left out is the Aiken area. Amazing to see so much of the state get six or seven inches plus. Remember that much of the upstates rain came Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night, with breaks in between, instead of all at once. That made a huge difference here, but the runoff still occurred and is reaching other parts of the state.

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Pretty amazing map. Pretty much the only area to get left out is the Aiken area. Amazing to see so much of the state get six or seven inches plus. Remember that much of the upstates rain came Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night, with breaks in between, instead of all at once. That made a huge difference here, but the runoff still occurred and is reaching other parts of the state.

McCormick and North Augusta are saying "what rain"?

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Somewhere west of Kingstree SC got 24-25" as per this CAE stormtotal (total time increment: 1.8days). Note, my high-value precipitation palette for GRLevel3 didn't even have enough colors for this.

UkTmyQn.jpg

Our SCDOT office in Kingstree reported over 26 inches. I wish I would have brought my dot network air card home to look at the cameras we have on site there. From what I'm hearing the entire county is under water.

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That little streak of gold right above the "G" in Goldsboro that bisects Johnston County is where that line of thundershowers exploded right over I-95 in Smithfield that I made reference to last week. The line itself dumped 1" along the Interstate that area in a short amount of time before weakening and moving East.

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