burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not every day you see the wpc forecasting 17 inches of rain without a landfalling tropical system. The wording in their discussion this morning is quite extraordinary. They don't throw around words like "off the charts", "historic", and "unheard of" very often or lightly. Someone already posted parts of it but here it is again. To think..the euro shows double this in general..scary stuff to be honest. Just amazing. Again, in my lifetime I've never seen a widespread flood in my backyard. I think around 10 years ago they were calling for around 8-10 inches of rain and we ended up with 6...but to think that we could be in for 10-15 inches is just insane. I feel like when it comes to storms like this since "hurricane" and "blizzard" isn't attached no one really takes them that seriously...but when your house has 4 inches of water on the floors it's very serious. Hopefully this underperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very heavy rain setting up along the coast of nc right now and it's building inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not every day you see the wpc forecasting 17 inches of rain without a landfalling tropical system. The wording in their discussion this morning is quite extraordinary. They don't throw around words like "off the charts", "historic", and "unheard of" very often or lightly. Someone already posted parts of it but here it is again. To think..the euro shows double this in general..scary stuff to be honest. DAYS 2/3......EASTERN U.S....DESPITE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH TROPICAL ENTITY JOAQUIN AND ITSPOSSIBLE IMPACT WITH THE EAST COAST... AS WPC FOLLOWED THE LATESTOFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC... A RATHER LARGE SCALE SEPARATE HEAVY RAINEVENT APPEARS VERY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATLREGION INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS ON FRI AND SAT. SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL DROP INTO THESERN US ON THURS TO BEGIN CLOSING OFF A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL MID TOUPPER LOW. THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE WILL MOVE LITTLE INTO THEUPCOMING WEEKEND... AS A MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTICBUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE NRN MID-ATL REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGESWITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE CENTER MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS ACUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE WESTERLIES AND ANAWFULLY IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON FALL SURFACE RIDGE WEDGES DOWNACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.THUS THE COMBINATION OF DEEP ERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE INITIALSURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE... PWS 2 STANDARD DEV ABOVE AVG ANDSOMEWHAT RELATED TO JOAQUIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VAINTO THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA FROM THEDELMARVA SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS THAT WPC FOCUSED FOR QPF ANDEXCESSIVE RAINS ON FRI. THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AREA WHERE BACKINGFLOW AND POSSIBLE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IS FROM SCINTO WRN NC/SWRN VA. THIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF AN INVERTED SURFACETROUGH DEVELOPING AND IN A ZONE OF VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW AIDEDBY POSSIBLE OROGRAPHICS.THEN ON SAT... THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER ERNCANADA AND SURFACE LOW FROM COASTAL SC INTO NERN GA WILL BEEXTREMELY INTENSE WITH GFS AND ECMWF ANOMALIES SUGGESTING 850MBMOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OFF THE CHARTS OR 5 STANDARD DEV ABOVE AVGOR GREATER. THIS WILL SETUP A NARROW ZONE OF INTENSE RAINFALL JUSTAHEAD OF THE NEG TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THUS FROM SC INTO NERNGA/WRN NC AND NERN TN/SWRN KY IS A CONCERN FOR RATHER LARGE SCALEEXCESSIVE RAINS AND UNHEARD OF AMOUNTS IN RECENT MEMORY.WPC BASICALLY WENT WITH A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE LATEST .25 DEGECMWF AND GFS BOTH DAYS FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND EXCESSIVE RAIN FCSTS.RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRI REACHING POSSIBLE MAX AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6INCHES AND ON SAT 5 TO 8 INCHES... WHICH COULD RESULT INPOTENTIALLY HISTORIC AMOUNTS. 13" of rain here would be historic I'm still not convinced mby will see anything close to that amount, but that's probably from being suckered in too many times btw......my emergency supply kit is ready just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 THEN ON SAT... THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER ERNCANADA AND SURFACE LOW FROM COASTAL SC INTO NERN GA WILL BEEXTREMELY INTENSE WITH GFS AND ECMWF ANOMALIES SUGGESTING 850MBMOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OFF THE CHARTS OR 5 STANDARD DEV ABOVE AVGOR GREATER. THIS WILL SETUP A NARROW ZONE OF INTENSE RAINFALL JUSTAHEAD OF THE NEG TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THUS FROM SC INTO NERNGA/WRN NC AND NERN TN/SWRN KY IS A CONCERN FOR RATHER LARGE SCALEEXCESSIVE RAINS AND UNHEARD OF AMOUNTS IN RECENT MEMORY. Yeah, 5 standard deviations above normal not to be taken lightly. WPC has those 850mb moisture flux maps at this link, but I can't get past the java exception to see them on IE or Chrome, even after I entered it as an allowed site in java - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/training/SDs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 13" of rain here would be historic I'm still not convinced mby will see anything close to that amount, but that's probably from being suckered in too many times btw......my emergency supply kit is ready just in case We picked up .62 from a storm last evening, and another quick 1/2 inch this morning, and the ULL moisture fetch hasn't even got crunk yet! Spartanburg had some bad flash flooding overnight with cars swept away and some fatalities ! Put even 4-6" more on top and it will be real bad! Put 10+ on top, and we are looking at catastrophic ! Right beside my neighborhood is the Reedy river and the bridge beside us is a good 20-30 feet above the river on an avg flow, I do not want to see it touch the bridge or even come close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just amazing. Again, in my lifetime I've never seen a widespread flood in my backyard. I think around 10 years ago they were calling for around 8-10 inches of rain and we ended up with 6...but to think that we could be in for 10-15 inches is just insane. I feel like when it comes to storms like this since "hurricane" and "blizzard" isn't attached no one really takes them that seriously...but when your house has 4 inches of water on the floors it's very serious. Hopefully this underperforms. You are right. I always thought we would never have a problem at my house. I live on decently high ground No streams or anything close by. 2009 in GA proved me wrong, runoff got dammed up from my privacy fence flooded out 2/3rds of the downstairs. Neighbor had water flood through the back door. When you get to the amounts depicted there is a decent chance you will flood no matter the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We picked up .62 from a storm last evening, and another quick 1/2 inch this morning, and the ULL moisture fetch hasn't even got crunk yet! Spartanburg had some bad flash flooding overnight with cars swept away and some fatalities ! Put even 4-6" more on top and it will be real bad! Put 10+ on top, and we are looking at catastrophic ! Right beside my neighborhood is the Reedy river and the bridge beside us is a good 20-30 feet above the river on an avg flow, I do not want to see it touch the bridge or even come close! Good luck with all this.... Euro spitting out 30", that doesn't look unreasonable does it....I don't even know if that is a sarcastic statement, yet! If this was a winter storm you can expect a 50 mile shift north inside 48 hours...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Jim Cantore.. already all in on CAE getting wrecked by rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We are under a flood watch! Just now saw that! Hope people start paying attention! Our local fox met again, said if Joaquin didnt come ashore in NC , we would see alot less rainfall and maybe a sunny weekend!!!!!! She said maybe 1-2 inches, unless a NC landfall happens!???!! Where do they find these people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Jim Cantore.. already all in on CAE getting wrecked by rainfall. It is raining in Cola? I don't see it on the radar. Good luck. Don't you live on Lake Murray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We picked up .62 from a storm last evening, and another quick 1/2 inch this morning, and the ULL moisture fetch hasn't even got crunk yet! Spartanburg had some bad flash flooding overnight with cars swept away and some fatalities ! Put even 4-6" more on top and it will be real bad! Put 10+ on top, and we are looking at catastrophic ! Right beside my neighborhood is the Reedy river and the bridge beside us is a good 20-30 feet above the river on an avg flow, I do not want to see it touch the bridge or even come close! Nothing here but some sprinkles that didn't add up to much My driveway is already wrecked from the heavy rain from last week because the drain up the road was blocked. Yay for living at the bottom of a hill! I can't imagine 8" of rain, let alone 2' the King keeps spitting out Jim Cantore.. already all in on CAE getting wrecked by rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It is raining in Cola? I don't see it on the radar. Good luck. Don't you live on Lake Murray? It was raining earlier. He was talking about this weekend with the ULL regardless of Joaquin track or not. There is going to be a massive convergence zone right over central SC close to CAE that has to be watched. Some of the modeling might not be off the rocker basically. And I sure do.. which is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It was raining earlier. He was talking about this weekend with the ULL regardless of Joaquin track or not. There is going to be a massive convergence zone right over central SC close to CAE that has to be watched. Some of the modeling might not be off the rocker basically. And I sure do.. which is bad. My parents live on Lake Murray on the ballentine side. I live in Irmo next to the Wal Mart in Ballentine and my yard floods easily. I am screwed. I hope my renters insurance includes flood damage, etc...Guess I need to check on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Good luck with all this.... Euro spitting out 30", that doesn't look unreasonable does it....I don't even know if that is a sarcastic statement, yet! If this was a winter storm you can expect a 50 mile shift north inside 48 hours...we shall see. Exactly my thoughts. lol If this were snow, it would go north and jackpot someone else. Instead it will stay its course and flood my yard and house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well --- 1st casualty. Today's 1/4" to 1/2" has been reduced to...... Today Drizzle likely before 4pm, then sprinkles with drizzle likely after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 65. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm visiting my sister in Columbia, who had emergency surgery and is still in hospital. She lives (and I'm staying) in her apartment (in Shandon) so no flood worries but it seems I've got a front row to a possibly historic flood event. I suppose my flight out on Saturday is somewhat in jeopardy. When was the last time Columbia had a major rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm visiting my sister in Columbia, who had emergency surgery and is still in hospital. She lives (and I'm staying) in her apartment (in Shandon) so no flood worries but it seems I've got a front row to a possibly historic flood event. I suppose my flight out on Saturday is somewhat in jeopardy. When was the last time Columbia had a major rain event? The past week has been a rain event. And downtown Cola is terrible. Floods easily. Be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm visiting my sister in Columbia, who had emergency surgery and is still in hospital. She lives (and I'm staying) in her apartment (in Shandon) so no flood worries but it seems I've got a front row to a possibly historic flood event. I suppose my flight out on Saturday is somewhat in jeopardy. When was the last time Columbia had a major rain event? For 24 hours, July of 1959 is our record that I know of set in Richland County (where Columbia is). It was 7.30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z NAM 48 hour totals: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p48.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151001+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 When is the heavy rain supposed to start? Right now it's just drizzle/mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 28m28 minutes ago 2 fire hoses of moisture aimed right at the Carolinas. This is a really bad setup for epic flooding. #ncwx #scwx https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQPOYOYWoAAUSW7.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 When is the heavy rain supposed to start? Right now it's just drizzle/mist. Just going off the NWS forecast, tonight. The latest NAM would give our area heavy rains for the next 48 hours then everything would shift to the SW. We would then be back in the light rain and drizzle, but we would also stay more in a CAD setup compared to a tropical one. Still interesting weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It will be interesting to see how this works out for ENC, the models have been changing quite a bit so I won't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 When is the heavy rain supposed to start? Right now it's just drizzle/mist.Sun popped out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 finally something interesting to follow - myb has had about or just over 6" of rain the last week or so. if some of the heavier rains manages to get to ne ga it is going to be wet beyond belief lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 the track looks to help increase totals for our region (SW NC), but everything gets down to the deformation zone. If that band hits the escarpment, its game on. An interesting new few days for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 60 hours of accumulated precip on the 12Z 4K NAM: 84 hours of accumulated precip on the 12Z 12K NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z GFS is crushing the I-40 and GSP/upstate with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We picked up .62 from a storm last evening, and another quick 1/2 inch this morning, and the ULL moisture fetch hasn't even got crunk yet! Spartanburg had some bad flash flooding overnight with cars swept away and some fatalities ! Put even 4-6" more on top and it will be real bad! Put 10+ on top, and we are looking at catastrophic ! Right beside my neighborhood is the Reedy river and the bridge beside us is a good 20-30 feet above the river on an avg flow, I do not want to see it touch the bridge or even come close! Had 0" last night. Flooding occured just a few miles away from me. There were a few cars that got stuck under a bridge notorious for flooding and 1 person died in their car. In another area the road and drain got swept away and left a huge sinkhole. A truck drove into that and got swept away. I ended up being about a mile away from the rain shield. A weather station close to the flooding picked up 1.39" in 15 minutes at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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