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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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“We have extensive flooding,” said North Charleston Mayor Keith Summey, “the worst flooding that I have seen in the 21 years that I’ve been mayor.” Charleston Mayor Joseph P. Riley agreed saying that he though the flooding was even worse than Hurricane Hugo in 1989.

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More to come... :(

 

 


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 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0553NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD425 PM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 042024Z - 050224Z SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES INTHE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY IN AN AREAWITH SATURATED SOILS.DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHED FROMSOUTHEAST NC INTO CENTRAL SC, WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF HOURLY RAINRATES ~2".  RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS OF 4-5"HAVE A RECURRENCE INTERVAL OF 25-50 YEARS.  IT LIES WITHIN A WARMCONVEYOR BELT/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OFA DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE, WHICH CONTINUES TO DRAW IN SOME OFHURRICANE JOAQUIN'S PERIPHERAL MOISTURE.  PRECIPITABLE WATERVALUES ARE 1.7-2.3" IN THIS REGION PER GPS VALUES AND RECENT RAPFORECASTS, TWO SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY OCTOBER.  INFLOW AT850 HPA IS 25-45 KTS PER RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR THEMAGNITUDE OF THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WIND.CAM GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-6" DURING THE NEXTSEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THEONGOING RAIN IS FALLING.  THIS WOULD COMPOUND EXISTING FLOOD ANDFLASH FLOOD ISSUES.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS WITHIN RAP MASS FIELDS(850 HPA WIND, MUCAPE, AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE)THAT SOME SOUTHWARD SHIFT/REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL HOURS.  AS CIN REDEVELOPS THIS EVENING, THE RAIN BANDCOULD MAKE GREATER PROGRESS INLAND, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. SOUTHERN REGION PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LOCALAMOUNTS OF 20"+ HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA OVER THEPAST THREE DAYS, CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEEDING HISTORIC RAIN EVENTRECORDS FOR THE CAROLINAS. CLOSE TO 30" OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN DURINGTHE PAST COUPLE WEEKS, JUST OVER HALF OF WHAT USUALLY FALLS IN AGIVEN YEAR. SOILS ARE SATURATED.  AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TOSUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3" WHERE CELLS TRAIN.  FLASHFLOODING REMAINS LIKELY, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC. THIS AREA/INFORMATION WAS COORDINATED WITH SAB/NESDIS.
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Looking at the coverage from TWC. Crazy how the rain keeps going in a straight line over the same places and doesn't spread out. It's like a skinny hurricane. What is keeping it going over the same area like that and not spreading out more?

On TWC they said it was convergence coming from the cooler air in GA and warm tropical air, and it's being funneled by the ULL !
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FLORENCE, SC (WMBF)  - The Emergency Management reported failure of the Oakdale Lake Dam on the West Side of the City of Florence. This will possibly impact interstate 95 between the interstate 20 interchange and the route 76 exit as well as portions of route 76.

Water from Oakdale Lake has the potential to overtop the Forest Lake Dam which is on the Southwest side of the City of Florence.

This is potentially a life threatening situation and residents near the Oakdale and Forest Lake Dams are urged to closely monitor the situation and pay attention to Local Emergency Management.

Additional moderate to heavy rain off the Northern South Carolina coast will move onshore during the next few hours with potential for an additional 3-6 inches of rainfall within the warned area, according to the National Weather Service. 

The Flash Flood warning remains in effect until 6:30 p.m. Sunday for Horry, Marion and Florence Counties.

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FLORENCE, SC (WMBF)  - The Emergency Management reported failure of the Oakdale Lake Dam on the West Side of the City of Florence. This will possibly impact interstate 95 between the interstate 20 interchange and the route 76 exit as well as portions of route 76.

Water from Oakdale Lake has the potential to overtop the Forest Lake Dam which is on the Southwest side of the City of Florence.

This is potentially a life threatening situation and residents near the Oakdale and Forest Lake Dams are urged to closely monitor the situation and pay attention to Local Emergency Management.

Additional moderate to heavy rain off the Northern South Carolina coast will move onshore during the next few hours with potential for an additional 3-6 inches of rainfall within the warned area, according to the National Weather Service. 

The Flash Flood warning remains in effect until 6:30 p.m. Sunday for Horry, Marion and Florence Counties.

That would compromise forest lake also.....crazy

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DORCHESTER COUNTY, SC (WCSC) -

The Dorchester County Emergency Management Department is urging anyone who lives in Dorchester County within one mile from the Edisto River to evacuate your home. 

Authorities say minor flooding has begun all along the Edisto River in Dorchester County.

"Major flooding will begin this evening and into the week," authorities say."If you live within one mile from the Edisto River in Dorchester County, you are strongly urged to evacuate. It is in the best interest of your safety to evacuate."

There is currently an Evacuation Shelter located at Summerville High School.

"Please log on to dorchestercounty.net for more information concerning this situation. If you become stranded, call 911 or (843) 873-5111."

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I said yesterday that someone in that area would see 20", unreal   :(

 

West Columbia

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During Alberto when it got cut off, it was raining so hard, and so humid, you couldn't breathe outside without gills.  I've never seen that much rain, and no one can be prepared for it.  I'm on high ground, but a lady died just around the corner driving into standing water....which, of course, was everywhere... and getting swept into a creek, which had turn into the Urubamba.  Normal reactions to things just don't work when it's like that.  Just best to stay home.

  I've had pretty good rain here, but then it's been raining here pretty much since the second half of summer.  I had 2 1/4 inches the other night, but that was on top of three one inch, or more, rains the week before, and a half inch before that, so the ground is soaked, and has been....and the bands keep swinging down.  The temps keep changing too.  Last night I went to sleep with the fan off and under a blanket.  This morning I woke up sweating at 7, and had to turn on the fan, lol. It's the atmosphere gone crazy! It's tropical, then it's not, then it's tropical....

  15 to 20 inches in a few days makes what I'm getting look like drizzle :)  Ya'll be safe up there.  Just stay home with Jose, and kick back until the sun comes out!  T

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“We have extensive flooding,” said North Charleston Mayor Keith Summey, “the worst flooding that I have seen in the 21 years that I’ve been mayor.” Charleston Mayor Joseph P. Riley agreed saying that he though the flooding was even worse than Hurricane Hugo in 1989.

This has to be the worst statewide disaster since Hugo.

 

When I was a kid back in 84, I was in Columbia for a relative's funeral in late March, so I was here when the big supercell tore through the state. Never forget seeing that ungodly-huge supercell as it went to the north. Then I was in Columbia only a couple of days before Hugo hit. I was down in Beaufort seeing my father in the hospital in late Jan 2014 and had to leave early before the big winter/ice storm that hit the lowcountry (which probably doesn't fit in this list, that wasn't anything like as calamitous as the March 84 tornadoes, Hugo, or this flood). Now I'm down here for a statewide washout.

 

In the 90s I came down here 1-2x a year but since 2000 I've only been down 7 or 8 times total, usually involving a family member who was sick. So it's not like I come down there all the time. Yet I've seen (or been close to seeing) some of the most notable weather events to effect this state in the past 30-odd years.

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